Magic Number for the Rockets against West Playoff Contenders

Vindication tastes sweet.

 

<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Games&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Con&nbsp;&nbsp;Overall&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Magic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</B>
<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Team&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W/L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Left&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Conf&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;TieBreak&nbsp;&nbsp;Number Diff</B>

&nbsp;1&nbsp;&nbsp;Lakers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;56-25&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;36-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;2&nbsp;&nbsp;Hornets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;55-25&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;10-5&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;33-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;4</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;3&nbsp;&nbsp;Spurs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;54-26&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;10-6&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;31-19&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;4&nbsp;&nbsp;Jazz&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;53-27&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;32-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Tie<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;5&nbsp;&nbsp;Rockets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;54-26&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;32-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;6&nbsp;&nbsp;Suns&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;53-27&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;29-21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;7&nbsp;&nbsp;Mavericks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;50-31&nbsp;&nbsp;1-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-6&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;32-19&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Bridled</B>
&nbsp;8&nbsp;&nbsp;Nuggets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;49-32&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;30-21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Dusted</B>
&nbsp;9&nbsp;&nbsp;Warriors&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;48-32&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;27-23&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Vanquished</B>

* Indicates that the Tie Break is final and cannot be changed due to the outcomes of upcoming games. The Magic Numbers are calculated on an assumption that we will lose the Tie Break unless it's already been clinched. If we clinch a Tie Break, that will drop the Magic Number 1 point.

<B>Clinched #6 Seed</B>

Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after the <B>Spurs @ Lakers</B> game.

So much for all the talk about threeway ties for #1 and our brief reign at #3. That was an ugly game. The Rockets couldn’t score, turned it over, and let the Nuggets run wild as they lost big to Denver. We’re not going to get the #1 or #2 seed, barring losses the rest of the way by the Lakers and Hornets and 2 victories for the Rockets. This means we are likely either going to be the #3 or #5 seed. The Lakers are the likely #1 seed and the Hornets are #2.

If we close out the Spurs (Magic Number at 3), we get the #3 seed. If we don’t, we’re #5 or #6. We should beat the Clippers which accounts for 1 point, but we’d need at least 2 of the following 3 to close the Spurs out: Rockets win in Utah, Spurs lose in Sacramento, Jazz win in San Antonio. The #3 seed would be over the Suns or Spurs with home court advantage.

If we win in Utah, we close out the Jazz and Suns and clinch home court in the first round. If the Jazz beat us, we are likely the #5 seed (barring a Spur loss in Sacramento) and the Jazz take the tie breaker and they would have to lose in San Antonio for us to close them out and take home court. However, Manu is unlikely to play and the Jazz would be playing for home court advantage.

If we fall into a three way tie with the Spurs and Suns, the Suns win that tie break and would get the #3 seed, the Spurs would be #5, and the Rockets #6. We would have home court over the Suns by virtue of us owning the 2 team tie breaker over Phoenix. Another threeway tie theory that can get bandied about.

I don’t really like our options, but that’s where we stand. I say go for #3 and home court over the Suns or Spurs. That means try like hell to win tomorrow and root for a Spurs loss. I’d rather go into the Playoffs with home court and some momentum than back in weakly.

As I posted earlier, the Lakers blew out the Spurs in the second half. This reduces the Spurs Magic Number by a point.

The day after blowing a game to the Blazers, the Mavericks bothced another gimme to the Sonics. The win prevents the Mavericks from taking the #7 seed. If they lose to the Hornets and the Nuggets win, Denver would be the #7 seed.

The Nugget victory virtually assures them of a playoff berth. They only have to beat the Grizzlies at home to clinch a Playoff berth. A Warrior loss in Phoenix or at home against the Sonics would also clinch a Playoff berth for Denver.

We play Monday night in Utah. A win closes out the Suns and Jazz. It also clinches home court advantage in the first round and at least the #5 seed for the Rockets. It would probably land us the #3 seed when the smoke clears.

It was definitely a disappointing night, but we’re still in good shape for home court in the first round. We might be drawing the Spurs or Suns, but the Spurs might be more appealing right now than the Jazz. It’s been fun speculating about the #1 seed, and it’s great that the Rockets played well enough to have made some of us (boo to you haters) optimistic about their chances.

Also on tap for Monday: Warriors at Suns, Spurs at Spoilers (Go Sacramento!)

The remaining schedules:
<B>Rockets:</B> @Jazz, Clippers
<B>Hornets:</B> Clippers, @Mavs
<B>Lakers:</B> Spoilers
<B>Spurs:</B> @Spoilers, Jazz

 

Jazz are a top 4 team because they won their division. Spurs win the tie break over us by virtue of a better division record, so they get a top 4 seed. The Jazz have the tie break over the Spurs, so the Jazz would be #3 and the Spurs #4. We'd be #5 in this scenario (assuming the Suns are behind us), and we'd open on the road in San Antonio.

 

Thanks <B>Kim</B>. We want to root for a Spoiler victory over the Spurs tomorrow night and for the Spurs to beat the Jazz on the last game of the season.

And of course: Go Rockets tomorrow against the Jazz!

We can really narrow this all down tomorrow after the Warriors-Suns, Rockets-Jazz, Spurs-Spoilers games.