Magic Number for the Rockets against West Playoff Contenders

I have a correction to make to my Hornest-Lakers-Rockets three way tie theory. After rereading the rules for tie breaks and seeding, I stand by the fact that we would get the #1 seed. However, after we win, the Hornets and Lakers break their tie by 2 team tie break rules. The Lakers would have a better conference record, and that gives the #2 seed to the Lakers and the #3 seed to the Hornets. We would have home court over the Lakers if we faced them in the playoffs because we took the season series 2-1. The Hornets would have home court over us due to their better division record.

With all of this three team tie break discussion, I want to mention that we want to avoid a Spurs-Suns-Rockets tie. The combined records of these teams against one another is Suns (5-3), Rockets (4-4), Spurs (3-5). The Suns would win that tie break and be the #3 seed. With the Suns decided, it switches to 2 team tie break rules, and the Spurs beat us due to their better division record. The Spurs would be #5 and the Rockets #6. We would, however, have home court over the Suns due to the Rockets owning the 2 team tie break over the Suns (better conference record). Even with home court, I don’t want to draw the Suns in the first round. This scenario would take the Spurs losing 2 (definite possibility), Suns winning out (definite possibility), and Rockets losing 2 (hopefully won’t happen, but we do have @Nuggets, @Jazz).

 

<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Games&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Con&nbsp;&nbsp;Overall&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Magic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</B>
<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Team&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W/L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Left&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Conf&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;TieBreak&nbsp;&nbsp;Number Diff</B>

&nbsp;1&nbsp;&nbsp;Lakers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;55-25&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;35-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;2&nbsp;&nbsp;Hornets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;55-25&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;10-5&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;33-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;4</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;3&nbsp;&nbsp;Spurs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;54-25&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;10-6&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;31-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;4</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;4&nbsp;&nbsp;Jazz&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;53-27&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;32-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;5&nbsp;&nbsp;Rockets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;54-25&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;32-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;6&nbsp;&nbsp;Suns&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;53-27&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;29-21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;7&nbsp;&nbsp;Mavericks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;50-30&nbsp;&nbsp;1-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-6&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;32-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Bridled</B>
&nbsp;8&nbsp;&nbsp;Nuggets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;48-32&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;29-21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Dusted</B>
&nbsp;9&nbsp;&nbsp;Warriors&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;48-32&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;27-23&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Vanquished</B>

* Indicates that the Tie Break is final and cannot be changed due to the outcomes of upcoming games. The Magic Numbers are calculated on an assumption that we will lose the Tie Break unless it's already been clinched. If we clinch a Tie Break, that will drop the Magic Number 1 point.

<B>Clinched #6 Seed</B>

Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on <B>April 12</B>.

The Rockets were off tonight but a number of teams were in action as we near the end of the season and a resolution to all of the insanity of the Western Conference Playoff race. Instead of casting illumination, all the races got even tighter tonight. My head is spinning trying to make sense of it all. We’ll know a lot more after tomorrow’s Spurs-Lakers and Rockets-Nuggets matchups.

The big news of the night was the Sacramento Spoilers upsetting New Orleans. The Hornet’s Magic Number drops 1. Suddenly the Southwest division title is wide open. With a Magic Number of 4, the Hornets are definitely in our sights. The Lakers moved up to the #1 spot (for today).

The path to the #1 or #2 seed looks a lot more accessible after the Hornets lost. If the Rockets win out, some very good things could happen with a bit of help. Consider the following scenarios:
<B>1.</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;Lakers win out AND Hornets win out
<B>2.</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;Hornets lose at least one game
<B>3.</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;Spurs lose at least one game
<B>4.</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;Lakers lose at least one game

If condition 1 happens, the Rockets, Lakers, and Hornets are tied. The Rockets are the #1 seed and have home court over every team in the West except the Hornets who would be the #3 seed (the Lakers are #2).

If condition 2 and 3 happen, the Rockets are the Southwest division champions, the #1 seed in the conference, and have home court over every team in the Western Conference.

If conditions 3 and 4 happen, the Rockets are the #2 seed behind the Southwest division champion Hornets.

If the Hornets win out and the Spurs win out, we would be the #5 seed with home court in the first round.

I’m sure there are other possibilities, but that’s a few to chew on while we wait for tomorrow’s game. On to the rest of the night…

We had some hopes for a Jazz loss tonight as well. The Nuggets were down big early and battled back to take a brief lead in the second half. Then they stopped playing defense, turned the ball over, and started missing shots in route to getting murdered by the Utah Jazz. Denver’s Magic Number to make the playoffs over Golden State is 2.

The Warriors tightened up the battle for the #8 seed by beating the Clippers. This means unfortunately that the Nuggets are going to be playing with a bit of desperation when they host the Rockets Sunday night. The Nuggets have the tie break on the Warriors, but a loss Sunday night would put them a half game behind in the loss column with just a few games left (1 for Denver, 2 for Golden State). Golden State’s Magic Number to clinch over Denver is 3.

The Mavericks could have wrapped up the #7 seed with a victory, but they chose to drop a game to the Blazers. They’ll probably still win the #7 seed, but Denver has the tie break over Dallas and could still move up.

We can close out the Suns and move really close to securing home court in the first round with a victory against the Nuggets on Sunday. Denver will be on the second night of a back-to-back, but they are playing for a Playoff spot and can’t afford any losses right now. I feel good about this game though. Denver has looked pretty awful, and only an abysmal performance from the Warriors kept them from a 4 game losing streak. If we want to stay in the hunt for a #1 or #2 seed, tomorrow is pretty much a must-win for the Rockets.

I still can’t believe how close everything is, but this is awesome news for the Rockets!

Also on tap for Sunday: Spurs at Lakers, Mavs at Sonics

 

Quite correct. That's why I said.

Hornets win the division and get the #1 seed. The Spurs are the winningest team that didn't win a division and would have a better record than the Lakers and Jazz, so they get the #2 seed.

The Rockets would fall to #5 and have HCA over the Jazz.

 

Yep. That's the thing to keep in mind with the Magic Numbers. They are for the 2 team tie break between the Rockets and each opponent. For home court, if the Magic Number has been closed out, we have HCA even if they are a higher seed. Likewise a team would have HCA over us if their Magic Number was 1 or higher when the season closed even if the Rockets are a higher seed.

 

Glad everyone's enjoying it. I'm having fun posting all of these results.

If the Lakers wind up 57-25, that means they have beaten the Spurs on Sunday, so the best the Spurs can do is 56-26. If the Hornets and Rockets are also 57-25, that creates a three team tie.

The Lakers have won the Pacific, the Jazz have won the Norhtwest, and the Hornets win the Southwest over the Rockets due to a better division record.

The Rockets get a top 4 seed because they are winningest team that didn't win a division.

Then it comes time to order the top 4 seeds. Because all 3 teams are tied, 3 team tie break rules are used. The combined record for each team is looked at. The Rockets (4-3) wins that criterion over the Hornets (4-4) and Lakers (3-4). They get the #1 seed. Once the Rockets win that tie break, the Lakers and Hornets use a 2 team tie break to decide their tie. The Lakers win by virtue of a better Conference Record.

So we're #1, the Lakers are #2, and the Hornets are #3. We would have home court over every team in the conference except the Hornets who win the two team tie break over us by virtue of a better Division Record.

I really want this scenario to play out. It would be the perfect wrap to this crazy race. A team that didn't win its division is the #1 seed.