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Magic Number for the Rockets against West Playoff Contenders

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by ScriboErgoSum, Mar 12, 2008.

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  1. BucMan55

    BucMan55 Member

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    Yep, and NO wins the division. Gets a guaranteed top 4 seed. This comes into play after that.


    Line 1 i think is useful when dealing with middle seedings. A Division Champ cant get a bottom half seed.

    Line 2 is where the Rockets get number 1.

    Line 3 is if it were a 3 way tie with the Rockets, Spurs, and Hornets.

    If there was a line about Division Champs trump a nondivision champ with identical record then I would not think the Rockets getting #1 to be possible.
     
    #261 BucMan55, Apr 12, 2008
  2. Cannonball

    Cannonball Member

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    David, look at this page on ESPN.
    http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/matchups

    At the top it says:
    Under this scenario, the top 4 seeds would be NO, Utah, LA, and Houston.

    Notice it says the top 4 teams compete for the top 4 seeds based on W/L and tiebreakers. Well, in this scenario Houston, LA, and New Orleans have identical records so we go to the tiebreakers.

    At the bottom of the page they list:
    And according to the first tiebreaker, we would get the #1 seed.
     
    #262 Cannonball, Apr 12, 2008
  3. Kindger

    Kindger Member

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    NO has the tie breaker between NO and Rox in our division, but NO doesn't have the tie breaker in NO-ROX-LA 3 team tie in the 1-4 seed. The rules to break a 2-team tie and 3(or more)-team tie are different.

    Head-to-head record in NO-ROX-LA tie:

    ROX: 4:3 (#1)
    LA: 3:4 (#3)
    NO 4:4 (#2)

    2-team tie breaker rules doesn't apply here.
     
    #263 Kindger, Apr 12, 2008
  4. Jeremiah

    Jeremiah Member

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    That's interesting, and seems a little off to me...but I'll allow it if it gets us the #1 record in the division. :D
     
    #264 Jeremiah, Apr 12, 2008
  5. mw_mw

    mw_mw Member

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    we're 1 game out of 1st place. why don't we get that 1st place and play Denver?
     
    #265 mw_mw, Apr 12, 2008
  6. Pringles

    Pringles Member

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    what happens if it is a 3 way tie with the spurs and the hornets? we still have a tie breaker?

    if so, i'd rather have the spurs win against lakers, cause lakers have sacremento next, and... i just don't think they can handle them. the spurs have sacremento too, and also utah, but in the spurs areana.
     
    #266 Pringles, Apr 12, 2008
  7. Kim

    Kim Member

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    In this hopeful scenario, the Kings game tonight vs the Hornets is huge. If it comes down to the last game of the season and The Rockets, Lakers, and Hornets all have 57 wins and the Mavs have to beat the Hornets to force a 3-way tie, then the Mavs will lose to the Hornets.

    That isn't so bad, but it will happen imo because if the Mavs beat the Hornets, then the Rockets would be #1 vs Denver, the Hornets would be #2 vs Mavs, and then the Lakers would be #3 vs Suns and then the Jazz would be #4 vs the Spurs.

    I think the Mavs would rather lose to the Hornets because Kidd/Terry cannot check CP3 and it would end up the Hornets being #1 and then the Rockets and Lakers would be tied for 2nd best record and the Rockets would be #2 with the head to head tie breaker. So the Mavs would play the Rockets instead.

    Of course this is all mute since the Rockets must take care of business 1st At Denver and At Utah on b2b nights, which is well, I'd say I'd be pleasantly shocked if the Rockets win both those games (especially the Utah game since Utah can pull the Rockets within 1 loss and own the tie breaker with that win).

    I'll just say it's unlikely the Rockets will get #1 b/c so many things have to fall into place. I'd love for Denver to beat Utah tonight in Utah b/c then Utah would lose any legitimate motivation for home court advantage. In that case, Utah would have 28 losses and Houston would have to lose to Denver, Utah, and the Clippers for Utah to get homecourt. The Jazz could also face the Spurs and the Spurs would have to lose to Lakers, Kings, and then finally Utah for the Jazz to get homecourt vs them.

    So most likely, if the Jazz lose tonight, then they'll pack it up with the 4th seed wrapped up and no real shot at home court. But as of now, the Jazz have legit reason to fight like mad because they can reasonably still win homecourt vs the Rockets and the Spurs mainly b/c they can win both tie-breakers.

    These scenarios are crazy. Let's just wait until Monday to think about it....I know, I can't either.
     
    #267 Kim, Apr 12, 2008
  8. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Member
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    I like all the #1 seed speculation. :cool: It's possible, not likely though.

    Us getting the #2 seed is a lot more realistic. The Spurs Magic Number is 4, and they play the Lakers and Jazz, possibly without Manu. Throw in a win for us against the Clippers and Nuggets, and we overtake them.

    I'd be down with drawing the Mavericks with home court.
     
    #268 ScriboErgoSum, Apr 12, 2008
  9. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Member
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    That's a tie break we lose out on. We all split season series against one another.

    Spurs: 4-4 (2-2 against Rockets, 2-2 against Hornets)
    Hornets: 4-4 (2-2 against Rockets, 2-2 against Spurs)
    Rockets: 4-4 (2-2 against Spurs, 2-2 against Hornets)

    We all tie in our combined records. Then the tie break goes to division record. That would be the Hornets if they beat Dallas (11-5). If they lose that game, the Spurs and Hornets are tied at 10-6, but we would be eliminated due to their better division record.

    The Spurs and Hornets would have identical conference records if they wind up tied, so it would next go to combined record against all Western Conference playoff teams. The Hornets are 16-12 (with @Dallas left). The Spurs are 13-13 (still with @Lakers, Jazz) on their schedule. The worst the Hornets can do is 16-13, but the best the Spurs can do is 15-13.

    So this Tie Break goes to the Hornets, and they win the division.

    So now it's down to the Spurs and Rockets for who is the best non division winner. The Spurs beat us out in the Tie Break due to a better division record.

    We would fall out of the top 4 and would be the #5 seed.
     
    #269 ScriboErgoSum, Apr 12, 2008
  10. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Member
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    For Saturday, I really want the Nuggets to the beat the Jazz, the Spoiler Kings to trip up the Hornets, and the Clippers to beat the Warriors. The Nugget win and Warrior loss would clinch a Playoff berth for the Nuggets, and I'd rather face them when they're not fighting to get in.
     
    #270 ScriboErgoSum, Apr 12, 2008
  11. pangzi

    pangzi Member

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    If the Jazz lose tonight. We should rest both TMac, Shane and Deke and play Landry and Scola very limited minutes, since really the best position for us is at #5 with HCA. I prefer it even better than the #1 seed, where too much pressure many be built to the team for failure.
     
    #271 pangzi, Apr 12, 2008
  12. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Member
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    I can't agree with that. First, we would still have to win 1 more to clinch #5 and HCA, so the Rockets have to try and get that against the Nuggets. Don't play TMac 48 minutes, but Rick has to play his best players their normal minutes.

    As far as getting the #1 or #2 seed and facing too much pressure, TMac will have pressure to get out of the first round no matter where we are seeded. The team will be judged a fluke with a lucky winning streak if we get bounced by Denver, Dallas, or Utah in the first round.

    We need to roll into the Playoffs with some swagger and momentum. An 8 game winning streak would be awesome. If they have one of the two best records in the West, this Rocket team will be brimming with confidence and a dangerous team, especially against Dallas or Denver.
     
    #272 ScriboErgoSum, Apr 12, 2008
  13. cdxiong

    cdxiong Member

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    I think NO will win there left games and stay at 1st seed.
    Lakers will beat Spurs and finish with 57-25.
    Based on these assumptions, we have 2 choices:

    1. Go all out to beat Utah at there home and grab the No 2 seed to face Dallas.

    2. Resting our starters for next few games and try to stay at No. 5 seed.

    I say go with No. 2. It doesn't give us much advantage to
    face Dallas.
     
    #273 cdxiong, Apr 12, 2008
  14. ColomboLQ

    ColomboLQ Member

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    All of this is making my head spin. I can't decide who I am rooting for or what I want to happen. Holy crap this is crazy.
     
    #274 ColomboLQ, Apr 12, 2008
  15. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Member
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    No lie. I swear my brain is going to explode. I like Math, and I usually have numbers running through my head at odd moments. But I go to sleep at night and Magic Numbers keep flickering through my thoughts. I've been drinking a lot more and talking to the dogs. "Yes, the Magic Number is 3, but what does it MEAN?"

    I guess the one constant is root for the Kings. Seems democratic. Sacramento beat us and Denver recently. They might as well add LA, SA, and New Orleans to their list.
     
    #275 ScriboErgoSum, Apr 12, 2008
  16. Robert

    Robert Member

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    Good grief! If you don't know what it means, I'm going to let your head explode. :)
     
    #276 Robert, Apr 12, 2008
  17. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Member
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    I know what the number means, but trying to figure out the myriad ways to reduce all the numbers to zero is slowly driving me mad. :eek:

    Please tell me this will all be over Wednesday night.
     
    #277 ScriboErgoSum, Apr 12, 2008
  18. rpr52121

    rpr52121 Sober Fan
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    I was just looking at past playoffs brackets, and I now do NOT want the Rockets to get the No. 1 seed, since neither No. 1 seed has reached the NBA Finals since 2003 and only one West No. 1 seed has reached the playoff in this century (since 2000).
     
    #278 rpr52121, Apr 12, 2008
  19. rpr52121

    rpr52121 Sober Fan
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    typo...should say... and only one West No. 1 seed has reached the NBA Finals in this century (since 2000).[/QUOTE]
     
    #279 rpr52121, Apr 12, 2008
  20. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Member
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    I don't put much stock in that. I don't think a 6 seed has done it since the Rockets in 1995, nor has a 5 seed done it recently either (anybody know the last time that happened?). No team is favored to win it this year. You can make a compelling argument for any team in the West (except Denver) to win the conference this year, but there are more compelling reasons why they won't win it. I'm going with "The Rockets are in, someone's gotta win" for these playoffs.

    I'd love the #1 seed to match up with Denver in the first round. That's hands down our best shot to advance, and I really want to see this team advance and take that monkey of TMac's back. That 1997 victory over the Sonics seems forever ago. This franchise needs to get out of the first round and use that a springboard for our Championship run next year.

    I'd also love the #1 seed because it would give us home court advantage through multiple rounds. The same applies to the #2 seed. That would be home court over the Mavericks which is more appealing than home court over the Jazz. I think we can get by the Mavs. Harris and Diop being gone really helps us against Dallas. We'd probably get the winner of Lakers\Suns (I'd really want Lakers) in the second round and would have home court for that as well.

    I think a run to the WCF is not out of the question this year, and who knows what happens then. I think it'll be easier if we can get HCA in the first two rounds, which means get the #1 or #2 seed.
     
    #280 ScriboErgoSum, Apr 12, 2008
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