Throwing? Maybe he should practice swinging a bat....at least he'll actually be able to do something that can even remotely help the team somehow.
I still can't believe some people on here called me dumb for saying how stupid that Lance extension was.
It’s not right calling anyone stupid for having an opinion. Some folks are more knowledgeable about injuries and rehabilitation than others. Obviously your gut feeling was on the mark. With that being said, I was very excited about Lance McCullers signing a reasonable contract. He definitely gave the Astros a big discount. Unfortunately he hasn’t been healthy form much of any of that contract extension. Lance closing out the 2017 World Series with all those curve balls was epic! That was stuff of legends, an it definitely lives in our memories. Too bad Fiers bitterness and spiteful nature made that 2017 World Series an asterisks in most of baseball fans (I don’t think he ever forgave the Astros for not including him in the playoffs roster after he had pitched like an ace during the season when all the other pitchers were injured). But in all fairness, Fiers was gassed by the end of the season, and didn’t deserve a playoff spot I always thought that Lance could have been an Ace pitcher if he stayed healthy, nowadays, you just want him to be a reliable #3 or #4 when and if he can make it back to the big leagues.
Was it stupid? He's a $30MM pitcher who's signed for $17MM because the Astros knew he'd be injured for part of it - that was baked into the value of the extension. His primary importance to the team is the playoffs, and since the extension, he's pitched in 1 out 2 postseasons and helped the Astros win a WS. He has 3 more potential postseasons to go. Whether it was a good or bad signing will be determined by his availability and performance in those.
$8M per WAR is generally accepted as even value. Lance's deal is 5 yrs/$85M 2022- 2026. He needs to hit 10.6 WAR to "earn" the deal. In 2022 he started 8 games for 1.4 bWAR and 0.8 fWAR That's 0.18 bWAR or .10 fWAR per start. For his career he is 0.09 bWAR or .12 fWAR Those 4 numbers average to 0.12 WAR per start. To get 10.6 WAR: 9.2 bWAR (76 starts) 9.8 fWAR (82 starts) I think it's unrealistic to expect him to make those starts in less than 2 1/2 seasons. However when the extension was signed he would have needed less than 90 starts over 5 years for the contract to he considered "made" and not a bad deal. That was quite reasonable. Lance helped the team win the 2022 W S. by pitching well in 8 starts during the regular season and in Seattle in the ALDS. If he can have 40+ more starts and contribute to 1+ more successful (let's face it that means W S.) teams during the contract then nobody will be sad about the money.
5/31 threw a bullpen to live hitters. Espada said " hopefully 2 or 3 more live bullpens" then a rehab assignment. So to be conservative let's say 4 bullpens w/ 5 days between. That's 6/6, 6/12, 6/18. Rehab starts: 6/24, 6/30, 7/6, 7/12, 7/18, 7/24 Ready to be activated between 7/18-7/30 depending on how many rehab starts are needed.
I think that’s a really conservative estimate, although just like with McCullers there’s a lot of downside in the timeline estimate. But I don’t think he’ll take 5 days between all the bullpens and I don’t think he’ll need 6 rehab starts. I think he’ll go out on rehab by next weekend and be back by next homestand that starts on 7/9.
Feels like Lance McCullers like he is robbing the Astros. Lance All Arm Delivery, never fixed his delivery. If you are a Young Pitcher Only Watch Roy Oswalt. Never had a Arm Injury. Excellent delivery, worked Fast, Mound Presence. Wish he Pitched on this Team. 2015 onward till today.
He's going to be back sooner than people realize. Apparently his stuff looks better right now than it did pre-injury. Expectations are high.
If LMJ will be worth it if he pitches well in the playoffs this yr and next yr. Otherwise it will have been a bad deal.
