Probably so... Luhnow probably would have never drafted or then acquired a guy like Cosart. He inherited him... definitely has a lot to do with his view. As far as the lip service goes, ("he'll be a multiple 15 game winner"), just another example of why you don't believe everything Luhnow tells the media. He keeps his true intentions pretty close-lipped.
I have to disagree. The Astros are REALLY high on Moran and the compensation pick is something they've been obtaining through trades. Even Marsnick is really more of a prospect as most people felt he was rushed into the majors last year. Normal development curve would've had him at AAA last year and possible call-up this year. That was definitely a for-prospects trade. I don't disagree with Ludnow's views though. Keuchel and McHugh were unexpected(?) finds. Appel and other young pitching prospects were coming through the minors. He likely believes Cosart's replacable and that's why he traded the guy away to a team that really loved his skillset.
Marisnick played basically as well as Cosart did post-trade. If the Astros had any drop off in performance after trade in pitching it was that they played Peacock instead of Tropeano. Astros got prospects and MLB talent.
If we can presume Marisnick is not only for-sure every day MLB talent, but a for-sure + WAR player over just 50 games, are we also presuming that Cosart is actually the pitcher who was able to post a sub 2.00 ERA in his last 9 starts with Miami and reportedly is further improved coming into this year? I'd still take the 24 year old pitcher that has already played one full season in the big leagues... the trade result will eventually come down to how the prospects (Moran, pick AND Marisnick) perform vs. how Cosart continues to do.
1 month update of some of the original thoughts I had when I started this thread Drafts 2012 which I gave an A, looks even better. Correa would probably be our best player right now. The best early season sign (yes I know it's an incredibly small sample size) is McCullers, out of Lancaster he has struck out 12 in 10 shutout innings. If he turns into a legit mlb pitcher (rotation or pen), this could end up being the best draft in team history. Phillips, Tucker and Aplin all have OPS numbers in the 900's early, and Fontana is doing what he does, getting on base at a .444 clip so far. I have little doubt that if Fontana came up, he would get on base at close to a .400 clip in the bigs 2013 which I gave a D, shows no signs of having any depth to it...but Appel is off to a strong start, and if you end up getting a front of the rotation pitcher out of any draft, you can't count that draft as a total downer. You can't have back to back drafts with no depth, but you can have one now and again if you at least get a stud out of it. Not saying Appel will be a stud, but his arrow is definitely pointing up. Tony Kemp is off to another great start too. I don't think we will be in the market for a 2B for the next decade or so, but the more Kemp hits the better his value would be in a deal. 2014 still obviously too early to grade, and won't rehash the top of the draft stuff...but this draft is showing that some of the depth that looked good last year, looks as good or better now! DJ (refuse to call him Derek) Fisher is off to a great start with an OPS near 1.000, JD Davis also off to a great start. The guy i'm intrigued by is Daniel Mengden, a guy without dominant "stuff" but a good all around arsenal, has been pretty dominant in the very early going. Will be one to watch as we move forward. The depth of this draft could mimic 2012, and if it does we will be in outstanding shape as an organization! Not much has changed from the dump trade guys. Wojo is learning his way at the mlb level now and Grossman is giving us pretty much what we expected. The one guy from the early trades that has shown he might be more than what we have expected is Musgrove, off to a great start and might be another arm like Mengden to keep an eye on. 2014/2015 trades . . .The big one (Cosart/Marisnik/Moran) is giving both teams good returns. While Moran isn't off to a great start, Marisnik has probably been our best everyday player so far (hope he is back tomorrow), and Cosart has given the Marlins 2 outstanding outings and 1 poor one. I don't think either side would reverse that deal at this point (yes, personally I would rather have Cosart, but Marisnik is doing a great job of trying to change my mind!) The prospects for help now trades have mixed results so far also. I still like the Gattis deal, I know he has been really bad but he is a hitter and will hit. I would like to see him play 1b a little and let Carter DH. Carter did well as a DH in the past, and Gattis isn't used to hitting and sitting. In any case, I still like that deal. Folty is off to a great start at AAA for the Braves though. The Trop/Conger deal I didn't like when we made it, and still don't really. It's not that I don't like Conger, but is he really a better backup C option that what we already had? Trop threw 6 shutout for the Angels the other day. I think because Trop doesn't have dominant "stuff" he was seen as more expendable, but the guy seems to know how to pitch. The Fowler deal to me is another working for both teams, Fowler has been pretty good for the Cubs and opened up infield spots for their young guys by moving Valbuena, who has been solid for us so far. Roster Building is a key for Luhnow as this is really his first shot at doing that. So far so good i'd say. The rebuilt bullpen has been outstanding (yea I saw the game last night, lol) and overall the pen is a big reason we are in first. Luhnow built this team around a couple of top starters, a great pen and a lot of power. Even with guys like Carter, Gattis and Springer not showing much power yet, we are 6th in baseball in HR. A power barrage will come at some point and the team will likely go on a big streak when that happens. Two week is way too early to give a roster building grade, but it's certainly so far so good! I'm gonna bump this about once a month, and obviously every month there will be more evidence of the overall job Luhnow has done in his 4 years. While i'm still solidly in the middle regarding the overall job he has done, all the early results from this year seem to be trending up. Anyone else ready to see Correa???
So who is the big FA this summer? Upton and Price? With Correa and Appel up likely next year and two top picks in this draft I am hoping that next summer will finally be the year Luhnow signs a top FA.
2013 draft is showing lots of signs of having depth. 2 pitchers pitching well in AA and one traded in a deal for a MLB player. 2 batters in AA already. Kemp looking like a super utility man. Gregor just needs to get raw power into the game. A couple more hitters in A+. Not great depth, but looks like 5 guys that will make a MLB contribution.
It is refreshing to have a plethera of quality prospects. Sure we are not looking at 20 top 100 prospects, but we are looking at a high number of potentially MLB careers.... And as has been said before, even #1 prospects arent a sure thing. So when it comes to prospects, it is almost better to have quantity over hype. And right now the Astros have two all world prospects in Correa and Appel, plus a lot of potential in every level. And with this upcoming draft, the talent at the top of the draft should keep the Astros top talent consistent, even with the impending promotions of Appel and Correa.
Altuve is 2nd baseman and Leadoff hitter. I'm thinking Kemp isn't traded, but becomes the 4th OF, backup 2B, backup 1B, emergency 3B. That amounts to about the PT of a starting catcher.
It will be about who takes the position. Because there are the prospect you'd like to project as the future, and the guys that sneek into holding a spot. When did we think Altuve would yank the position from Delino DeShields Jr.... Today Altuve is an all world 2nd baseman... we are projecting Springer, Santana, Tucker, Phillips, Marisnick, etc. And it could be someone else that takes the spot.
I like Zimmerman, but I'd rather not allocate the amount of money needed to sign him. We'd have him from around age 29-37, presumably around 20-25MM a year. He's a fringe #1 right now. We'd be getting him when he's a viable #2, and towards the end of the contract who knows what he'll be. Then again, if we want to sign any big name, that's what it's going to be like.
Altuve will block Kemp for the Astros. If that is still the case in a year and Kemp is playing well in AAA, Kemp will be traded for good value ... since Time will tell, but Kemp may turn out to be a great pick (5th round at that) by Luhnow.
I generally see your point. I think Astros want versatility. I think the Astros want to run with 3 backups to keep an extra relief pitcher. For the Astros to do this for long stretches, they need guys like Kemp. I could be wrong on why the Astros have two guys trying to become IF/OF hybrids.
When projecting a guy to utility player, I would say Fontana profiles much better. Kemp profiles almost exclusively as a 2B, while Fontana can play SS and in a pinch 3B. I think Kemp is highly likely to be a secondary piece to a trade sometime this year. His greatest value is as a possible everyday 2B IMO.
