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You could have said the same thing about david carr or carson palmer or mark sanchez or brady quinn. Its a crapshot with the nfl draft.
I don't remember nearly the hype surrounding any of those players as compared to Luck. Heck, I personally wanted Julius Peppers the year we drafted Carr. If Luck was available that year, Peppers probably wouldn't have been on my radar. Luck seems to have the total package, but generally the limiting factor of all QBs in the NFL is their ability to read defenses. It's this quality that makes any QB pick a risk. But Luck seems to be pretty close to being a sure thing.
Once Oden showed he was unhealthy in his only college season he should have never been drafted overt Durant. Oden just rode the momentum from being and incredible HS prospect.
Carr played under a gimmick offense in a mediocre conference, Sanchez wasn't considered a finished product when he entered the draft, and there were major questions about Quinn's ability to handle pressure and get rid of the ball quickly. None of those guys were as highly-touted as Luck. Palmer's the only comparable prospect, and he did turn out to be a really great QB. One couldn't have predicted that Kimo Von Oelhoffen would destroy his career. Even with the fact that his arm strength doesn't quite grade out as elite, I would put Luck on the same level as Aikman or Manning as a QB prospect.
Neither Brady Quinn or Mark Sanchez were even the first quarterback taken in their drafts. I don't think anyone was acting like they were all time great propspects. Brady Quinn wasn't even a top 20 pick.
All I am saying there is no such think as a sure thing especially in the nfl unless you are a lebron, shaq, or duncan. Notice all those players played in basketball. I remember reggie bush was supposed to be a once in a decade type player. Just pure statistics point out no1 qbs just don't turn out that great. I am not saying he will suck, but he might not be great.
I think RG3 can take a hit as good as most QBs. Pocket presence and savvy are key. If he's a macho man like Michael Vick, RG3 will have big problems staying healthy. If he moves around the pocket and exercises good judgement when running, there won't be a problem. He will realize NFL players hit much harder. Michael Vick and Steve McNair might be the two toughest QBs the NFL has ever seen, but both guys couldn't (often willingly) stay out of harms ways and suffered the consequences.
The concept of a sure thing is a relative term. There are inherent risks with any draft pick. A "sure thing" just means the risks are as low as one can reasonably expect. It's just as someone say "it's safe to cross the street" doesn't mean it's absolutely safe. Who knows? Maybe you accidently trip on the ground midway and some guy runs the red light. Doesn't mean you should never cross the street.
Read on espn that Rams are definitely trading the 2nd pick, looks like to Washington or Cleveland. I think the idea is to get trade for a very high pick (like 3 or 4) and use that to draft Kalil, and also get a low first round pick to draft a WR. I also wouldn't be surprised if they trade Jackson and try to pick up a young RB. As someone who watches Jackson's talent suffer on our pitiful team, I wish they would just give the man a chance to win.
People that really watched Durant in college knew he was much better than Oden, and watching Oden, I never got the impression that he was going to be great. I didn't see how Portland drafted him first on draft day, and obviously it was a big mistake now. That said, Andrew Luck has been way better in College than Oden was. Luck and RG3 are both looking like good fits for whoever gets them.
the problem with the comparison is that luck and rgIII play the same position. as alluded to earlier, oden, bowie, and olajuwon all went before great no miss talents because they were centers. you alway take franchise centers, just like you always take franchise qbs or defensive ends. the question mark on rgIII will forever be size. i don't know whom i would take but luck's size is a huge advantage and maybe a deciding factor
