With Oden's retirement coming soon, I was thinking about it, and some similarities hit me. Both Oden and Luck were consensus #1 picks before their final non-pro season started. Both played well enough to justify their ranking and remained the consensus #1 pick going into the draft. That being said, in that same year, they were both clearly outplayed by the guys who ended up being considered the #2 player on the board (Durant and Griffin), both of whom were considered the best college player that year. Oden remained above Durant because of the relative value of his position in the NBA. Luck has remained above Griffin because he's run a pro-style offense in college, and he's a little bigger. Now Oden was a good player when he played, and without his injury would have been good. But even if he had stayed healthy, he would never have been as good a player as Durant. Are the Colts making the same mistake as the Blazers by picking the player that's a better fit, and has been on top longer, over the guy who looks better right now?
If he would have stayed healthy, Oden would have been a good, if not great, center in the NBA. He never would have been as good as Durant.
I'm not so sure Oden was the consensus number 1. A lot of people felt Durant was better. Griffin -- not so much. Why can't this be like Olajuwon and Jordan? That's more similar anyways since Griffin wont go #2.
Even Jordan thinks Olajuwon was the better pick. He said that he'd pick Olajuwon first of all players all-time. I'm suggesting that this might be a mistake. The majority of the Heisman voters thought Griffin was better. NFL scouts aren't completely convinced, but I'd bet if you asked a lot of them privately they'd say Griffin has slightly more risk, and a lot more potential. I'd bet dollars to donuts that Griffin goes number 2. The Rams are going to get a haul for that draft pick.
What does this have to do with anything..... Heisman voting means nothing, ask Charlie Ward. Further, I am not so sure that scouts would privately say that Griffin has higher upside. Luck has the better arm..... further, Briles qb's always put up big numbers in his system..... I expect Griffin will go second, have thought so since game 4 of the season, but that doesnt mean he is as good as Luck....
As a Texans fan, I would rather face Luck twice every season for a decade over RG 3. You guys saw what Cam did to our D. Who would y'all rather face?
I disagree with this, and think most scouts do as well. I think both are great prospects, but Griffin has the superior arm. http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/...or-concerns-about-luck-settle-on-arm-strength http://www.vigilantsports.com/2012/...ques-andrew-lucks-game-says-hes-manning-like/ Not saying it clearly makes Griffin the better prospect, but he does have better arm strength. I think there are some superficial similarities in the Luck/Griffin and Oden/Durant comparisons. Not that I think Luck will be a bust, because I don't. But both Luck/Oden were anointed as untouchable before their seasons even began, and lots of folks will stubbornly cling to such notions until evidence is overwhelming to the contrary. I don't know for sure that Griffin is the better pick. He is a couple inches shorter. But Griffin has a superior arm, superior legs, and was the better college player. He's also very intelligent, which is part of what supposedly makes Luck so special (the mental aspect of the game). Luck is more proven in a pro-style offense, and there's certainly some value to that. I do think both choices are defensible. However, there are definitely a lot of folks out there who aren't giving this enough thought, and are stating a clear preference for Luck mostly based on the media narrative that's been force-fed for the last 18 months. I don't think it's nearly as easy a choice for the Colts as many make it seem.
I would pick RGIII, Luck just strikes me as bland. He might perfectly fit the NFL profile, but so did Jomarcus Russell. RGIII can light it up and run like the wind. He is Vick, Young, and Marino all wrapped up in one player.
The only thing similar between Andrew Luck and JaMarcus Russell is that they're both humans. Whoa there... did you go to Baylor?
I think RG III and Cam Newton might end up being the best two QBs in the league in a few years. Roethlisberger, Brees, and Rodgers have all succeeded because they can extend the play but don't try to take off all of the time ... Griffin and Newton can do the same thing AND can punish you with their feet. It's too late for a guy like Vick, who just doesn't have the decision-making you really need to be a great passer (and he gets hurt every other play). But if these two can replicate what Ben, Brees, and Rodgers do and make big plays with their feet, watch out. I think Luck will be very good, because he is smart and has the tools. But maybe not as special as everyone thinks he will be. More like a better, steadier version of Eli Manning with more athleticism. Luck was smarter coming out of the womb than Jamarcus is to this day.
Luck is ridiculously athletic. Remember this tackle? I think every recognizes Griffin's intelligence though. He might be smarter than Luck, and I'm not sure everyone recognizes that, but they know he's a smart player.
Jamarcus Russell didn't fit the NFL profile at all. He threw one of the prettiest deep balls I've ever seen, but that was his only great NFL quality. I thought he'd be great, but a lot of smarter people than me had their doubts.
Greg Oden's issues were almost entirely health based. He may not have every been KD level good, but when he did final get time, and time to grow, he was becoming pretty solid. In his 2nd year of playing (so his 3rd year), though he just played 21 games, he was putting up per 36 stats at a very similar pace as Dwight (or better, depending on category and how your making the comparison), and a 23.1 PER. The dude just couldn't stay healthy. He played 82 regular season games. That's the issue there. If you're trying to say Luck is likely to be often injured and over the course of his first 5 years only play 16 games and be unlikley to play any more thereafter, well that's quite a prediction.
RG3 has a huge arm and is crazy accurate. The only question mark about him is how fast he can go through his reads. If he can think at NFL speed, he will be top 5 qb.
So the Colts should take RG3 over Luck because Greg Oden has bad knees? That's pretty much what you're saying.
