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Lowry = Moneyball Player?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by baller4life315, Mar 13, 2009.

  1. baller4life315

    baller4life315 Contributing Member

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    Given that I just read Moneyball, which is an outstanding read for those that haven't read it, I did a search to see what past threads there were about the book. Here's a link to a past thread I found particularly interesting. It's an article from 2007 about Kevin Pritchard and his installation of a similar "moneyball" approach to the one Morey uses. It talks of his staff's Protrade's algorithm that ranked Kyle Lowry as the #1 most likely player from the 2006 Draft (Yes, the ENTIRE 2006 Draft) to achieve success by their third season.

    Maybe Morey is onto something here. Even though each team's formula is likely to be unique and different, i'm sure the results are similar. Maybe this is yet another reason to like Lowry?

    Here's the link to the old thread and the article. Pay particular attention at "A Growing Trend" which talks about Morey and eventually leads to the whole point of the thread in it's mention of Lowry.

    http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=130970&highlight=moneyball
    (Note: Link to actual article no longer works, however link to prior Clutchfans thread was provided. Mods -- Lock if you feel necessary)
     
    #1 baller4life315, Mar 13, 2009
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2009
  2. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    Very interesting read. One of Morey's comments regarding the trade was that they've "kept an eye on him for years", so I guess their own number crunching system produced similar results.

    Out of the guys in that list one person who jumps out at me is Shelden Williams. He's in no man's land now (i.e. Minnesota), but I think he'd make for a great pickup next season, esp. since no seems to know he exists anymore lol. At 6'9 he has the size to be our backup center, and he can provide the defense and rebounding we need to counterbalance Landry's scoring. What do you guys think?
     
  3. iconoclastic

    iconoclastic Member

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    It was really a godsend that Lowry got injured his rookie season. If he had went on to become a star Memphis never would have given him to us and he never would have been a Rocket.
     
  4. ReD_1

    ReD_1 Rookie

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    I'm sure that Lowry is one of the "Moneyball" players.

    I mean just look at our team, it's full of players that are underrated in one hand.

    Take Scola for example, he's now one of the most consistent players in the NBA and manager got him for a expiring contract and a second round pick.
    It makes you wonder what would Spurs do with him right now?

    Von Wafer? Guy who nobody or barely knew of in September, October last year and now he filled the absence of T-Mac in one hand.

    Then there's Carl Landry who got in Houston for money, basically if you remember Rockets bought him from Seattle as a 34th pick.
    He was a diamond in a draft so as Aaron Brooks, guy who was 27th pick in the NBA draft and now is a NBA starter.

    Not a lot of NBA teams have so good players that don't have enormous salaries or didn't already make a name for themselves in the NBA.

    So yes, Moneyball concept works for Lowry also and to tell you really I really like the concept of maybe one of the most misunderstood books ever.
     
  5. chasingu

    chasingu Member

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    Morey has a great job indeed since he become the manager.
     
  6. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    I'm gon say it again...Lowry is a stud.

    Glad to have Morey as our GM, he's doing a good job here.
     
  7. Pipe

    Pipe Contributing Member

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    baller ... here is another great article about Moneyball .... warning it is a long read so feel free to read a few Tracey sucks threads in between installments ;) :D

    http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=91524
     
  8. baller4life315

    baller4life315 Contributing Member

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    I remember him saying something to that effect too. Every GM using one of these analytical approaches is very protective of the formulas themselves, always being careful not to release too many details about how it works exactly. All the same, I'm sure the results are similar. It's strange to think one guy's approach could pinpoint a guy like Lowry and another's could completely miss him. Morey probably always knew he was underrated and apparently fits the "moneyball" philosophy which helps you understand even more why we pulled off this trade.

    Shelden has done a great job of making a TON of scouts look very bad and very wrong. Shocking, considering Shelden gave every sign imaginable of being a safe pick: NBA body, good attitude/work ethic, no durability issues, mid-range game coupled with a few effective low post moves, elite shot blocking and rebounding skills. I remember thinking his worst case scenario was becoming an Antonio Davis type player with a best case scenario being a player with Okafor type numbers. Somehow he managed to defy odds by forgetting how to do everything. Sadly, I don't think he'll ever "get it" and he'll be out of the league before he ever signs a second NBA contract.
     
  9. baller4life315

    baller4life315 Contributing Member

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    Thanks for the link. I didn't know Dean Smith was using possession analysis. Very interesting. Speaking of Dean's I just ordered Basketball on Paper by Dean Oliver earlier this week and i'm anxiously awaiting its arrival. Oliver's story of essentially being a pioneer for statistical analysis in the NBA is a compelling story. He definitely helped pave the way for a guy like Morey with no basketball background to have any business being the GM of a basketball team.
     
  10. shortfuse3

    shortfuse3 Member

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    good stuff but obviously the method isn't infallible with guys like tyrus thomas and mardy collins at the top. nice to see millsap is up there though.
     
  11. baller4life315

    baller4life315 Contributing Member

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    Definitely. Although, in the case of Tyrus it his his third year and he appears to be coming around somewhat. He averaged 15-8 for the month of February but consistency has always plagued him. We'll have to see if he's capable of sustaining those numbers.

    Collins and Simmons are definite head scratchers, though. Shawne Williams too, although in his case the talent is there he's just a bonehead. I doubt this formula can account for the psyche of players.
     
  12. thacabbage

    thacabbage Contributing Member

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    thanks for posting this. this was basically the main question in my mind in regards to lowry.
     
  13. thacabbage

    thacabbage Contributing Member

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    Wait, wait, wait. All of the talk leading up to that draft was how it was a complete JOKE that the hawks had guaranteed him the #5 selection. it was near unanimous amongst scouts, analysts, basically anyone in the know that he would be a huge bust and that his game would NOT translate to the pros.

    the shocker wasn't that he has sucked - the shocker was that the hawks were dumb enough to reach so high at #5.
     
  14. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

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    Yes,putting Aldridge at #22 was wrong as well.That also goes to show that Portland ignored their own formula by picking him.
     
  15. baller4life315

    baller4life315 Contributing Member

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    Well, yeah....passing on Brandon Roy and guaranteeing the 5th pick looks dumb in hindsight, but there were plenty of scouts that thought Shelden was a safe pick. The Hawks went about the draft all wrong -- everybody knew for weeks they were taking Shelden. It's never smart to lay your cards out on the table like that.

    There were a ton of voices that thought he was a solid and safe pick at #5. They may have disagreed with the Hawks approach but I think it's safe to say Shelden has shocked a lot of people with just how wrong they were about him (myself included).

    Jay Bilas endorsing him as a safe pick:
    http://broadband.nba.com/cc/playa.p...wmedia/nba/nbacom/draft/2006_williams_s_5.asx

    Also, Bilas calling him the 6th best player in the draft regardless of team need:
    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2006/insider/columns/story?columnist=katz_andy&id=2495933

    Dukie V (surprise, surprise....I know):
    DraftExpress bio that makes numerous mentions of his skills translating well:
    http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Shelden-Williams-18/

    Inside Hoops scouting report proclaiming him to be "better Brian Grant":
    http://www.insidehoops.com/players/shelden-williams.shtml

    NBADraft.net calling him the next Okafor:
    http://www.nbadraft.net/players/shelden-williams

    CollegeHoops.net comparing him to Alonzo Mourning:
    http://www.collegehoopsnet.com/Draft/2006/sheldenwilliams.htm

    Chad Ford calling him the next Antonio Davis:
    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2006/insider/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&id=2498248

    Chris Broussard begging the Hawks not to take him, however proving my point that even scouts that knew to stay away even still misjudged him:
    ESPN Draft bio comparing him to Davis again:
    http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?playerId=18847
     
    1 person likes this.
  16. michecon

    michecon Contributing Member

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    by Looking at the list, it's not much better than stock recommendations.
     
  17. HTR99

    HTR99 Member

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    No question Lowry was a moneyball player, I just wished we could have done more to get Roger Mason, Jr. instead of Brent. I was excited when Barry signed because it didn't seem like we had any other player's interest of signing here. Low risk moves is what DM is about, surprised this one slipped past him since he signed at a bargain and doesn't have a hefty contract especially since he's been clutch. Guess I'm just tired of getting guys at their mid-prime or beyond.

    Go Rockets!!!
     
  18. Ziggy

    Ziggy QUEEN ANON

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    Getting to the free throw line as much as he does is something I know Morey covets.
     
  19. baller4life315

    baller4life315 Contributing Member

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    Those listed are pretty much every big name when it comes to the NBA Draft.

    Hell, I even found one more: John Hollinger. According to Hollinger's 2007 formula for evaluating a college player's potential as a pro, Shelden ranked 2nd in the 2006 Draft as having the best combination of PER, Age, Steals, Blocks, Rebounds, 3-pointers and Pure Point Rating.
    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf.../story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=ProRater

    The evidence is pretty overwhelming. But I digress as Shelden himself is not the topic of the thread, however he does give you a prime example of where traditional scouting and a new, innovative analytical approach can both fail simply because the player doesn't have "it". Again, I highly doubt any statistical or analytical formula can account for a player's psyche.
     
  20. Depressio

    Depressio Contributing Member

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    Morey's picked Scola, Landry, Wafer, Brooks, and now Lowry. All 5 players are quite good and have a lot of potential.

    I'd say his formula works.
     

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