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Lowry = Moneyball Player?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by baller4life315, Mar 13, 2009.

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baller4life315 Contributing Member

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Given that I just read Moneyball, which is an outstanding read for those that haven't read it, I did a search to see what past threads there were about the book. Here's a link to a past thread I found particularly interesting. It's an article from 2007 about Kevin Pritchard and his installation of a similar "moneyball" approach to the one Morey uses. It talks of his staff's Protrade's algorithm that ranked Kyle Lowry as the #1 most likely player from the 2006 Draft (Yes, the ENTIRE 2006 Draft) to achieve success by their third season.

Maybe Morey is onto something here. Even though each team's formula is likely to be unique and different, i'm sure the results are similar. Maybe this is yet another reason to like Lowry?

Here's the link to the old thread and the article. Pay particular attention at "A Growing Trend" which talks about Morey and eventually leads to the whole point of the thread in it's mention of Lowry.

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=130970&highlight=moneyball

http://www.columbian.com/sports/localNews/06172007news154662.cfm

It's a numbers game

Sunday, June 17, 2007
BY BRIAN HENDRICKSON

The billboard stares at drivers headed west into Portland on I-84.

"Oden, honk once," half the sign says.

"Durant, honk twice," urges the other.

The Portland Trail Blazers' marketing campaign fuels the debate over who the team should select with the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft on June 28, but it also illustrates the division on the issue. A month of arguing has only produced an unending wail of honks for each side on radio shows and in the media, with no consensus near.

On one end is Ohio State's powerful center Greg Oden, who at age 19 is already worshiped as a legend on the hallowed courts in his home state of Indiana. At the other is Texas' Kevin Durant, a superstar-in-waiting whom some believe will revolutionize the game. Each camp will argue passionately for their favorite. And each will say the Blazers would be foolish to pass on either.

Honk once for Oden - if only the decision could be that simple.

But Kevin Pritchard believes he has the formula that will produce a straightforward solution. And it won't rely on emotional opinions, debates or honking horns to uncover the answer. No, the Blazers general manager's approach will delve deeper, breaking the issue down into its unbiased components.

The numbers.

Pritchard's formula, which he guards with a thick veil of secrecy, is an algorithm designed by a Massachusetts Institute of Technology-educated whiz. And he believes so highly in its application - and is so concerned about other teams getting it - that Pritchard will only discuss the method and its results in generic terms. But the potential of the technique Pritchard terms "quantitative analysis" excites him as he prepares to use the formula in a draft for the third consecutive year.

"It's been right on with some guys that we wouldn't normally have picked," said Pritchard, who offered no details. "I feel comfortable with it, and it's going to become a bigger part of our evaluation process."

Beating bias

To understand why quantitative analysis gets Pritchard so excited, first understand the unavoidable limitations of traditional methods.

For nearly as long as there has been professional basketball, teams have relied on swarms of scouts to research prospects and offer opinions on which players a team should draft. Those scouts fly to all areas of the country and watch dozens of games in person in addition to hundreds on film, during which they sort out what they feel are the strengths and weaknesses of players the team has targeted.

But Pritchard feels human nature limits the success rate of traditional scouting methods because the data is contaminated with individual opinions and proclivities. The scout's preferred style of play could factor into their evaluation, or perhaps they'll watch a prospect on an off night and have their perceptions tainted.

For instance, if a scout who prefers a system that runs through a strong post presence were to watch Oden and Durant, they may see greater benefits to taking Oden, with his powerful 7-foot frame, and limitations with Durant, a wiry wing player.

Those biases make traditional methods a subjective analysis, and sports history is littered with examples of talent miscalculations (Michael Olowokandi, Kwame Brown) and overlooked warning signs (Sam Bowie's injuries).

That's what Pritchard sought to eradicate through the use of mathematics: A bias-free analysis that the team could use to counterbalance its live scouting.

A new approach

Pritchard first learned of the concept after reading a pair of books.

The first, "Moneyball," chronicled Oakland Athletics vice president and general manager Billy Beane's use of mathematical analysis to identify the best talents available at the salaries the small-market team could afford. Anchored around Beane's revolutionary approach, the A's have advanced to the postseason four times since 1998 and have had players win the AL MVP award (twice), AL Rookie of the Year (twice) and a Cy Young Award.

The other book, "Bringing Down the House," told the story of a group of six MIT students who used mathematics to develop a system that would allow them to efficiently - and very successfully - count cards at a blackjack table to maximize their bets. The group earned millions of dollars in winnings from that strategy and caused casinos across the country to develop extreme tactics to guard against card counting.

Pritchard turned to a member of that MIT group, Jeff Ma, after deciding to further pursue a mathematical approach to scouting. Ma had recently co-founded a new fantasy sports company, Protrade, whose foundation was based on mathematical principles similar to those chronicled in "Moneyball." With Protrade consulting with the Blazers, algorithms were developed which could predict a prospect's likelihood of success.

The process gathered readily available statistics - such as a player's age, height, weight, scoring and rebounding averages, and other numbers applicable to their position - crunched them through the algorithm to measure their perceived chance of success by their third season and ranked the results. Those figures would then be used to complement reports from the Blazers' scouts to form the complete analysis.

Pritchard and Ma are quick to point out that the system is not foolproof, though, and its findings will raise some eyebrows amongst casual fans.

For instance, Memphis point guard Kyle Lowry, selected with the 24th pick, was Protrade's top-ranked player in last year's draft, while Portland's all-rookie forward LaMarcus Aldridge - taken with the second pick - ranked 22nd.

But the algorithm successfully identified Utah's all-rookie forward Paul Millsap - drafted 47th, but ranked sixth by Protrade - as an undervalued prospect.

So while the system isn't an end-all solution, it gives the Blazers added information that can improve their decision making. It can lead them to reevaluate a well-regarded player whom Protrade ranked low, or look deeper into an overlooked prospect who rated favorably.

"I think that there's points and places where the numbers are going to lie, and there are places where your eyes are going to lie," Ma said. "So the beauty of using both of these is you get into a situation where you have all your bases covered. Essentially what we've tried to do is provide a situation where they get a lot of opportunity to sort of see, to get as much information as you can."

Putting it in play

The first draft was considered a test: Only 1 percent of decisions were based on Protrade's analysis, Pritchard said. But that 2005 draft produced Jarrett Jack, who became the Blazers' starting point guard last season.

Pritchard won't reveal how much the system has affected their decisions since, but last year's draft - with Protrade's algorithm playing a larger role - has been widely hailed as the most successful in franchise history. Brandon Roy and Aldridge were named to the All-Rookie First Team after being selected among the top six picks, while point guard Sergio Rodriguez - acquired late in the first round - quickly gained notoriety as a rising talent.

But there was another key decision in that draft: The Blazers elected not to select Adam Morrison, a regional favorite from Gonzaga, after acquiring the No. 2 pick in a trade with Chicago. Fans had rallied outside the Blazers' practice facility to express support for drafting Morrison, while analysts compared his game to that of Hall of Famer Larry Bird. The hype put the Blazers under pressure to take him.

But Protrade's algorithm? Ma said it projected Morrison as a late first-round selection at best.

"We didn't really like Morrison," Ma said.

Perhaps the Blazers still would have passed on Morrison without the algorithm's input - though he went on to an all-rookie season in Charlotte and justified his lottery selection. But the contrasting viewpoints illustrate what Pritchard believes is the system's greatest benefit: It can raise a warning flag about a potentially poor decision, or identify a player they may have otherwise overlooked.

"It always makes me reevaluate where we are," Pritchard said. "There are certain things that can't be measured. You can't figure out determination without looking in someone's eyes. I'm not saying this is foolproof. It's just about helping us steer away or towards someone to look at a deeper level."

A growing trend

Other NBA teams are now recognizing the benefits as well. New Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey has initiated similar work with quantitative analysis. San Antonio was beginning development of its own system when Pritchard left the Spurs in 2004 to join the Blazers as director of player personnel. And Ma said he has heard of several other teams experimenting with the concept.

But Tom Penn, who started last month as the Blazers' assistant general manager and was recently introduced to Portland's system, said the Blazers' approach is groundbreaking.

"The group here is definitely pushing the envelope," said Penn, Memphis' assistant general manager for the last seven years. "What I've seen is raw data, if filtered properly, doesn't lie."

But the true test has yet to be performed. The last two drafts may have produced encouraging talents, but they're hardly comparable to the expectations being placed on this year's decision.

Some believe the choice is a toss-up. Oden's size, athleticism and strength inside appear to hold the ingredients of a champion. But Durant's passion, athleticism and offensive skills are unique, electrifying and impossible to dismiss. The debate over who Portland should pick has raged for nearly a month among fans and in the media. The sides are starkly divided.

So there's the test: Can math answer a question that emotions, opinions and honking horns struggle to solve?

"Sure," Pritchard deadpans, revealing no cards. "Why not?"

And there Pritchard lets the question hang, preferring to let this numbers game play out in secret.

Protrade's Top 10
The players in the 2006 NBA Draft that the Trail Blazers' draft consultant mathematically concluded had the greatest perceived chance of success by their third season.

Rank, Player Draft Position Drafted by Notable

1. Kyle Lowry 24 Memphis Played in only 10 games after breaking wrist in November.

2. Tyrus Thomas 4 Portland* Averaged 5.2 points and 3.7 rebounds in 72 games.

3. Rajon Rondo 21 Boston Second among rookies with average of 3.8 assists.

4. Mardy Collins 29 New York Averaged 4.5 points and 2.0 rebounds in 52 games.

5. Brandon Roy 6 Minnesota** Named Rookie of the Year; started 55 of 57 games played.

6. Paul Millsap 47 Utah Voted to NBA's All-Rookie Second Team.

7. Shelden Williams 5 Atlanta Led all rookies in rebounding with 5.4 per game.

8. Cedric Simmons 15 New Orleans Averaged 2.9 points in 43 games.

9. Daniel Gibson 42 Cleveland Averaged 13.5 points in Eastern Conference Finals.

10. Shawne Williams 17 Indiana Averaged 3.9 points and shot 47 percent from the field in 46 games.

* Traded to Chicago for No. 2 pick LaMarcus Aldridge (ranked 22nd by Protrade)

** Traded to Portland for No. 7 pick Randy Foye."
Click to expand...

(Note: Link to actual article no longer works, however link to prior Clutchfans thread was provided. Mods -- Lock if you feel necessary)

#1 baller4life315, Mar 13, 2009
Last edited: Mar 13, 2009

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Very interesting read. One of Morey's comments regarding the trade was that they've "kept an eye on him for years", so I guess their own number crunching system produced similar results.

Out of the guys in that list one person who jumps out at me is Shelden Williams. He's in no man's land now (i.e. Minnesota), but I think he'd make for a great pickup next season, esp. since no seems to know he exists anymore lol. At 6'9 he has the size to be our backup center, and he can provide the defense and rebounding we need to counterbalance Landry's scoring. What do you guys think?

#2 roslolian, Mar 13, 2009
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It was really a godsend that Lowry got injured his rookie season. If he had went on to become a star Memphis never would have given him to us and he never would have been a Rocket.

#3 iconoclastic, Mar 13, 2009
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I'm sure that Lowry is one of the "Moneyball" players.

I mean just look at our team, it's full of players that are underrated in one hand.

Take Scola for example, he's now one of the most consistent players in the NBA and manager got him for a expiring contract and a second round pick.
It makes you wonder what would Spurs do with him right now?

Von Wafer? Guy who nobody or barely knew of in September, October last year and now he filled the absence of T-Mac in one hand.

Then there's Carl Landry who got in Houston for money, basically if you remember Rockets bought him from Seattle as a 34th pick.
He was a diamond in a draft so as Aaron Brooks, guy who was 27th pick in the NBA draft and now is a NBA starter.

Not a lot of NBA teams have so good players that don't have enormous salaries or didn't already make a name for themselves in the NBA.

So yes, Moneyball concept works for Lowry also and to tell you really I really like the concept of maybe one of the most misunderstood books ever.

#4 ReD_1, Mar 13, 2009
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Morey has a great job indeed since he become the manager.

#5 chasingu, Mar 13, 2009
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I'm gon say it again...Lowry is a stud.

Glad to have Morey as our GM, he's doing a good job here.

#6 JayGoogle, Mar 13, 2009
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baller4life315 said:

... snip ....
Click to expand...

baller ... here is another great article about Moneyball .... warning it is a long read so feel free to read a few Tracey sucks threads in between installments

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=91524

#7 Pipe, Mar 13, 2009

baller4life315 Contributing Member

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roslolian said:

Very interesting read. One of Morey's comments regarding the trade was that they've "kept an eye on him for years", so I guess their own number crunching system produced similar results.
Click to expand...

I remember him saying something to that effect too. Every GM using one of these analytical approaches is very protective of the formulas themselves, always being careful not to release too many details about how it works exactly. All the same, I'm sure the results are similar. It's strange to think one guy's approach could pinpoint a guy like Lowry and another's could completely miss him. Morey probably always knew he was underrated and apparently fits the "moneyball" philosophy which helps you understand even more why we pulled off this trade.

Out of the guys in that list one person who jumps out at me is Shelden Williams. He's in no man's land now (i.e. Minnesota), but I think he'd make for a great pickup next season, esp. since no seems to know he exists anymore lol. At 6'9 he has the size to be our backup center, and he can provide the defense and rebounding we need to counterbalance Landry's scoring. What do you guys think?
Click to expand...

Shelden has done a great job of making a TON of scouts look very bad and very wrong. Shocking, considering Shelden gave every sign imaginable of being a safe pick: NBA body, good attitude/work ethic, no durability issues, mid-range game coupled with a few effective low post moves, elite shot blocking and rebounding skills. I remember thinking his worst case scenario was becoming an Antonio Davis type player with a best case scenario being a player with Okafor type numbers. Somehow he managed to defy odds by forgetting how to do everything. Sadly, I don't think he'll ever "get it" and he'll be out of the league before he ever signs a second NBA contract.

#8 baller4life315, Mar 13, 2009
baller4life315 Contributing Member

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Pipe said:

baller ... here is another great article about Moneyball .... warning it is a long read so feel free to read a few Tracey sucks threads in between installments

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=91524
Click to expand...

Thanks for the link. I didn't know Dean Smith was using possession analysis. Very interesting. Speaking of Dean's I just ordered Basketball on Paper by Dean Oliver earlier this week and i'm anxiously awaiting its arrival. Oliver's story of essentially being a pioneer for statistical analysis in the NBA is a compelling story. He definitely helped pave the way for a guy like Morey with no basketball background to have any business being the GM of a basketball team.

#9 baller4life315, Mar 13, 2009
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good stuff but obviously the method isn't infallible with guys like tyrus thomas and mardy collins at the top. nice to see millsap is up there though.

#10 shortfuse3, Mar 13, 2009
baller4life315 Contributing Member

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shortfuse3 said:

good stuff but obviously the method isn't infallible with guys like tyrus thomas and mardy collins at the top. nice to see millsap is up there though.
Click to expand...

Definitely. Although, in the case of Tyrus it his his third year and he appears to be coming around somewhat. He averaged 15-8 for the month of February but consistency has always plagued him. We'll have to see if he's capable of sustaining those numbers.

Collins and Simmons are definite head scratchers, though. Shawne Williams too, although in his case the talent is there he's just a bonehead. I doubt this formula can account for the psyche of players.

#11 baller4life315, Mar 13, 2009
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thanks for posting this. this was basically the main question in my mind in regards to lowry.

#12 thacabbage, Mar 13, 2009
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baller4life315 said:

Shelden has done a great job of making a TON of scouts look very bad and very wrong. Shocking, considering Shelden gave every sign imaginable of being a safe pick: NBA body, good attitude/work ethic, no durability issues, mid-range game coupled with a few effective low post moves, elite shot blocking and rebounding skills. I remember thinking his worst case scenario was becoming an Antonio Davis type player with a best case scenario being a player with Okafor type numbers. Somehow he managed to defy odds by forgetting how to do everything. Sadly, I don't think he'll ever "get it" and he'll be out of the league before he ever signs a second NBA contract.
Click to expand...

Wait, wait, wait. All of the talk leading up to that draft was how it was a complete JOKE that the hawks had guaranteed him the #5 selection. it was near unanimous amongst scouts, analysts, basically anyone in the know that he would be a huge bust and that his game would NOT translate to the pros.

the shocker wasn't that he has sucked - the shocker was that the hawks were dumb enough to reach so high at #5.

#13 thacabbage, Mar 13, 2009

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shortfuse3 said:

good stuff but obviously the method isn't infallible with guys like tyrus thomas and mardy collins at the top. nice to see millsap is up there though.
Click to expand...

Yes,putting Aldridge at #22 was wrong as well.That also goes to show that Portland ignored their own formula by picking him.

#14 saleem, Mar 13, 2009
baller4life315 Contributing Member

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thacabbage said:

Wait, wait, wait. All of the talk leading up to that draft was how it was a complete JOKE that the hawks had guaranteed him the #5 selection. it was near unanimous amongst scouts, analysts, basically anyone in the know that he would be a huge bust and that his game would NOT translate to the pros.

the shocker wasn't that he has sucked - the shocker was that the hawks were dumb enough to reach so high at #5.
Click to expand...

Well, yeah....passing on Brandon Roy and guaranteeing the 5th pick looks dumb in hindsight, but there were plenty of scouts that thought Shelden was a safe pick. The Hawks went about the draft all wrong -- everybody knew for weeks they were taking Shelden. It's never smart to lay your cards out on the table like that.

There were a ton of voices that thought he was a solid and safe pick at #5. They may have disagreed with the Hawks approach but I think it's safe to say Shelden has shocked a lot of people with just how wrong they were about him (myself included).

Jay Bilas endorsing him as a safe pick:
http://broadband.nba.com/cc/playa.p...wmedia/nba/nbacom/draft/2006_williams_s_5.asx

Also, Bilas calling him the 6th best player in the draft regardless of team need:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2006/insider/columns/story?columnist=katz_andy&id=2495933

Dukie V (surprise, surprise....I know):

http://espn.go.com/dickvitale/060626draftthoughts.html
Looking for a solid performance every day, a player who can get the job done on the glass and should go in the top 10, check out Duke's Shelden Williams.
Click to expand...

DraftExpress bio that makes numerous mentions of his skills translating well:
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Shelden-Williams-18/

Inside Hoops scouting report proclaiming him to be "better Brian Grant":
http://www.insidehoops.com/players/shelden-williams.shtml

NBADraft.net calling him the next Okafor:
http://www.nbadraft.net/players/shelden-williams

CollegeHoops.net comparing him to Alonzo Mourning:
http://www.collegehoopsnet.com/Draft/2006/sheldenwilliams.htm

Chad Ford calling him the next Antonio Davis:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2006/insider/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&id=2498248

Chris Broussard begging the Hawks not to take him, however proving my point that even scouts that knew to stay away even still misjudged him:

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=2501541&searchName=broussard_chris
Now with all due respect to Shelden Williams, who should have a long and respectable NBA career...

Shelden will be workmanlike. Shelden could be something like an interior version of Shane Battier -- solid, great character, great leadership but a so-so player. Don't get me wrong, you need guys like Shelden on your squad, especially a young, immature team like the Hawks.
Click to expand...

ESPN Draft bio comparing him to Davis again:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?playerId=18847

#15 baller4life315, Mar 13, 2009

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by Looking at the list, it's not much better than stock recommendations.

#16 michecon, Mar 13, 2009
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No question Lowry was a moneyball player, I just wished we could have done more to get Roger Mason, Jr. instead of Brent. I was excited when Barry signed because it didn't seem like we had any other player's interest of signing here. Low risk moves is what DM is about, surprised this one slipped past him since he signed at a bargain and doesn't have a hefty contract especially since he's been clutch. Guess I'm just tired of getting guys at their mid-prime or beyond.

Go Rockets!!!

#17 HTR99, Mar 13, 2009
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Getting to the free throw line as much as he does is something I know Morey covets.

#18 Ziggy, Mar 13, 2009

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michecon said:

by Looking at the list, it's not much better than stock recommendations.
Click to expand...

Those listed are pretty much every big name when it comes to the NBA Draft.

Hell, I even found one more: John Hollinger. According to Hollinger's 2007 formula for evaluating a college player's potential as a pro, Shelden ranked 2nd in the 2006 Draft as having the best combination of PER, Age, Steals, Blocks, Rebounds, 3-pointers and Pure Point Rating.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf.../story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=ProRater

The evidence is pretty overwhelming. But I digress as Shelden himself is not the topic of the thread, however he does give you a prime example of where traditional scouting and a new, innovative analytical approach can both fail simply because the player doesn't have "it". Again, I highly doubt any statistical or analytical formula can account for a player's psyche.

#19 baller4life315, Mar 13, 2009
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Morey's picked Scola, Landry, Wafer, Brooks, and now Lowry. All 5 players are quite good and have a lot of potential.

I'd say his formula works.

#20 Depressio, Mar 13, 2009

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