[Lowe Post] Howard Beck "leaning hard" Giannis, Lowe at a standstill

Has anyone said it would be a robbery if Giannis didn’t win it like they have for Harden? No, they always make up reasons why harden shouldn’t win it again.

 

I wouldn't normally get worked up about the MVP award.... but Harden clearly deserves it this year. He's having one of the best seasons in NBA history.

 

• I never said who or what was to blame. I'm just using the name Melo Effect, for simplicity. In fact, go look at my posts and I did not blame Melo.
• I merely pointed out the low is only a 10-game window.
• Not a 22-game.
• Actually, it was only 7 games, as Harden missed 3 of them due to hammie.

We're talking 7 games.

We've proven there is nothing wrong with the Team Offense in this Post Melo -- Pre-Super Saiyan Window. Right? You agree.

Here, below is where you say I'm making excuses, when I am merely proving I know more about the Rockets than Beck. It's not that hard.​

This was the time when the rebounding exploit was going viral to opponent game plans. We had a systemic problem with the defense. both Coach Rogers and MDA remarked about it, and it was evidently clear enough for @Will to start a thread about it. The exploit to pull Capela out and attack our Trap the Box help defense was what I said was a major cause, and it was even easier when Capela sat and we have no Nene or Faried.

I'm not even sure we solved that issue (aside from getting Faried), but Harden at one point just said

"fckk it, I'm going Super Saiyan on Offense. Enough with this trying to figure out the rebounding issue crap."​

 

This isn't talked about enough. This is a real thing.

Bud's system (over Kidd/Prunty) fundamentally changed the ENTIRE complexion of the team from a 7th seed to a 1 seed. Sure some nice roster additions in Lopez. Giannis' game is relative similar to last year.

 

FYI, I respect Beck's argument. He has been consistent. Team success does matter. Beck voted for Harden during the Westbrook year.

 

YUP, they are voting Giannis. It is obvious

 

After listening to the podcast I did some reviewing of the Rockets season. I posted my thoughts on twitter and will repost here.

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Biggest hole in Harden’s case for #MVP is *team success.* Because his numbers are historic. Even as historic as they are, clear *team success* held him back. Looking back at #Rockets season, you can see the very moment that likely costs him MVP. And it *wasn’t* the slow start!

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-Reviewing #Rockets season in segments.

11/9: On this date Rockets were 4-6 and abandoned the Carmelo experiment.
That initial stretch also had the Harden injury and CP suspension.

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-Reviewing #Rockets season in segments.

11/9: On this date Rockets were 4-6 and abandoned the Carmelo experiment.
One of the losses was to the Blazers (at home) with Harden injured.
A KEY loss considering now the tie breaker situation. (The other Blazer loss was when CP was injured in January.)

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-Reviewing #Rockets season in segments.

11/10: From this date (post Melo), Rockets went 5-1 and were at a respectable 9-7. Rockets kind of turned themselves around here. They are OK record wise!

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-Reviewing #Rockets season in segments.

This is where Harden likely loses the MVP due to the Rockets record.
11/23: The KILLER Thanksgiving swoon.
11/23: Coach Bzdelik returns (not blaming the downturn on him).
11/23 - 12/9 Rockets went 2-7.
12/9: Rockets were 11-14 & 14th in the West.

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-Reviewing #Rockets season in segments.

Rockets at 9-7 and going 2-7 from 11/23 to 12/9 to put them at 11-14 was a DAGGER to their season for seeding and for Harden’s MVP chances due to *team success.*

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-Reviewing #Rockets season in segments.

12/11: MVP James Harden turned on the jets, turned around Rockets season.
12/11 - 3/28: Rockets 36-14
Same time span:
Bucks: 40-11
Rockets: 36-14 (~ 72% win percentage aka 59 win season)
Warriors: 33-14
Nuggets: 33-14
Blazers: 32-16
Raptors: 31-17
76ers: 29-18
OKC: 28-23

 

My original comment stands. Slicing up the games in this manner doesn’t change his averages over our first 25 games. Someone said his performance was as usual in those first 25 games, and that’s not the case just based on the boxscore. And we are agreed, I think, that he shares responsibility with his teammates for th bad defensive performance. And him missing games with injury doesn’t help his case in an MVP debate, either. He was not anywhere close to a viable MVP candidate in that span. This is a relevant point to raise in an MVP discussion.

OK, two points. First, offense and defense aren’t totally separable. I think you correctly pointed out recently how turnovers can affect defense. That should apply here. Second, even if our offense was the top ranked offense in the league in that span, you are still losing points when you turn the ball over and the net effect on the scoreboard is the same as if the miscue occurred on the defensive side.

OK. That’s interesting.

 

Spoiler: More boring Meta-Discussion on ORtg stuff

I know all that.

You said I was confused what Offensive Rating was. NBA calls it OffRtg and Offensive Rating. I'm not sure what you point here is. You asked me where I got my stats, and I told you, and you said I was confused. Dude, lighten up. You're not the ruler over what NBA.com gets to call their stats.

• I always go to NBA to run Team ORtg, because it is now the correct number. BBRef is incorrect.
• I don't like Ind ORtg, but I run that at NBA too, because BBRef doesn't appear to offer date ranges on theirs
• Team ORtg while Harden is on the Court is a perfectly fine measure for this Beck discussion

For the future, what Player ORtg stat would you prefer I run at BBRef for date ranges? Are you sure NBA doesn't have a stat for points per possession that the player uses, or whatever you Rule that I should call it.

They have all the necessary data. If they do, it will be a better stat. As much as I like BBRef, they apparently don't have the resources of NBA Stats to do Real possession-based stats, only estimates. I'd probably be OK with them scraping PbB more for USG and ORtg, but not sure if they are doing that, either.

 

Your first comment in thread was this ... And you later used that to say Beck was correct.

I've now shown these are irrelevant Offensive Numbers, by showing the drastic effect Harden's first 7 games had on them (in the 10-game Melo window). If the season started with only the Game 11-on numbers, all his offensive numbers are still MVP range.

Thus, using offense numbers in date range to defend Beck is bad analysis.

wait, are you now targetting me as engaging in a general MVP discussion. I'm not hear to discuss who has a stronger case. I'll bow out now if you think I'm having a general discussion on who deserves MVP.

I'm here to correct Beck's bogus claim that Harden was "responsible for" bad start. No one disputes that Harden had no case for MVP at the 11-14 mark. No one with a losing record is in the discussion.

Yes, both Harden and Paul were sloppy early. Sure, that's one of the things to look at for the low start, along with the big Rebounding issue and Paul and Gordon's crappy shooting starts -- Melo, Ennis, MCW, no backup Center, trying to intergrate players, Bzdelik melodrama.

With integration of players, we had a relatively slow start last year, too. This time the integration was a complete failure at the level of cutting all of them.

 

Actually, I said you were apparently confused. But I am now forced to upgrade that to you are just confused.

What NBA.com calls individual OffRtg and what bbref calls ORtg are measuring completely different things. They aren’t just two names for the same concept. One is not just a more exact version of the other.

They are different, in the same way that a players’s FG% and the team’s FG% when the player is on the court is different. Get it?

 

Then we are in basic agreement, and only differ in our understanding of Beck’s argument. The reason a player with a losing record is not considered for MVP is that there is a tacit understanding that top players on a team bear some responsibility for that team’s performance. This is what Beck was getting at, IMO.

Agreed. I’m happy to end this thread of discussion here, then.

 

People are too woke for this ish..they need to take away voting rights from the morons who vote for mvp and the hof. This isn't the 90's where we thought they knew what they were talking about. Every year its the same with these idiots. The internet has made these peoples lives and decisions too transparent and we can all see how ignorant they are...and this is their jobs. Smh.

 

I had a problem with Lowe saying Harden doesn't want to put in the work.

James gets most of his deflections and steals by playing the passing lanes off the ball, which is not an easy thing to do, particularly for 35+ minutes of basketball. It takes a lot of effort to track down as many loose balls as Harden does as well. These are known as hustle stats for a reason.

Lowe, and now you, continued the narrative that Harden lazily defends, which is lazy analysis.

He has shortcomings, but effort is no longer one of them.

 

And so did Lowe.

 

Lowe voted Leonard-Harden-Westbrook-James-Curry.

 

So he voted for the 2-way player on a 60 win team over Harden. I wonder who he will vote for this time around.

 

But remember early on they just couldnt stop telling us how much ariza n lic was missing. Now.that we overcame it no mention of it lol

 

Lowe will vote Giannis. The previous Kawhi vote is the tell for him. (despite the fact he already said he is leaning Giannis lol)

That season, Kawhi was the tip of the spear and not the engine like Harden. Harden was more impactful, imo.

 

For Howard Beck.....

When people talk about *team success* being a factor in MVP voting (and I agree it should matter), just remember WHO the MVP is of the Bucks.

Giannis stats have improved by 2 rebounds and 1 assist. Was Giannis the CATALYST for a JUMP from 7th seed to 1 seed? NO

Below!