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[Long Read] Moving up on 11' Draft; Rebuilding or Reconstruction?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by _RTM_, May 20, 2011.

  1. _RTM_

    _RTM_ Member

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    Rockets strategy to move up on the draft board obviously has something on it. We need a young talented big and it’s not somekind of breaking news.

    Morey took Hill (but we all had an opportunity to see that he’s too raw and his bball IQ is too low) and he’s no dreadlocks version of Stromile Swift right now: athletic guy that can play one great game and then disappears for the next two, three maybe five. He made a trade for Thabeet but he would be the role player (15 effective minutes dude off the bench at best), if we’re lucky enough. DM was trying to get Cousins or Favors but they were way too exciting prospects and nobody except Kahn would pass on them. So here we go for another draft and they are some rumors about our possible interest. But there are some questions about moving up, too.

    Why?

    We are obviously on a rebuilding mode after decision on Rick but we actually don’t know about one major thing: is it a long-term one or asap plan?

    If it’s actually as soon as possible mode (not a rebuilding, maybe reconstruction), our Rox shouldn’t trade away our best players in Scola and Martin cause they do have quite a few good years in front of them and we could use them in the near future for our own good. We would be less competitive without Luis or Kevin if we are talking about one (two as max) tanking and banking seasons and then starting to roll over again. We should understand that this kind of strategy probably would depend on one successful (or unsuccessful) decision on the draft and it would be all on Morey and scouts. We can’t make a mistake or get a late bloomer or a guy that needs two-three seasons to start destroying our opponents. It’s like a win now mode but probably a poor-man’s version of it

    If we are on a huge rebuilding plan (“blow this place up!” I call it) we should trade for all draft picks possible as Cavs did it and Rockets fans should be ready for taking some bad contracts or losing Scola, K-Mart or even Lowry. It could be a huge disappointment but our team was built to contend in the last our next two years so our veteran players and average age of possible contending rotation is quite a nasty one (Brooks-Martin-Battier-Scola-Yao-Lowry-Lee-Budinger-Hayes-Miller) and all guys that are still there would be on a huge decline at the times when we would be ready to fight after the series of losing seasons. So we just should sell them as high as possible, for as many high picks as we can.

    So if we are in the first plan, we shouldn’t make any huge deals for going straight up on the board. Losing Budinger, Hill or/and 14’th pick is not as crucial as losing one of our top-three players. If it’s something more – Morey should and would pass if it’s not a deal for top-3 pick. If it is so, he would think about it.

    If we are actually on a “blow this place” mode, Daryl should get as much young talent as he could and losing our better players isn’t going to mess him up. We own our lottery-protected pick for 12’ draft and having some more choices in 2012 with Barnes, Jones and other young guns on the board is going to be a huge advantage. 12’ Draft is going to be the one you can actually build on, just like Blazers did with Aldridge and Roy, for example, back in 06.

    Who deserves?

    Actually it’s not even a question. Only a bigmen. Cavs won’t give anyone a chance to snatch Irving so any other guard does not deserve any attention. This league is full of guards and if you have just a solid one (not a superstar like CP3, Rose, Nash or Deron) it won’t make any difference. Lowry can compete with most of them, just like Brooks did it. Bigs and star wings are the difference makers in this league right now. We are not in the beginning of 2000’s when Baron or Stevie Franchise were quite a sensations. There are no wings with star potential in 11’ draft so we should mention only two names: Kanter and Valanciunas.

    European bigs are always risky ones but after Darko’s story scouts are much more careful with them. They are both young and they both had a nice potential but we should go with Jonas.

    He’s young, long, talented, extremely active one. He understands his own weaknesses, he plays with heart and passion. He’s excellent rebounder due to his understanding of the game, length, athleticism and effort. He’s already averaging more than 5 rebounds per game in just 15 minutes in Euroleague competition (Scola was averaging this kind of numbers on the boards for 30 minutes!) without any experience and body frame and don’t even try to forget that he’s fighting with much bigger players with huge experience, not with a “small” 6’7-6’9 dudes like most NCAA centers.

    He also has a good hands (scoring more than 90% from FT is quite extraordinary stat, yeah?), he can catch the ball and he’s quite smart. He understands defensive schemes and tactics on a pretty good rate which is a rarely for a guy of his age, especially in Europe.

    I also like the fact that most of really talented European bigs are late bloomers and they are continuing to develop throughout their respective careers (Dirk, Pau, Sabonis, Scola (despite the fact that he’s argentinian), so he would develop his offensive game and he’ll progress probably until early 30’s which is quite nice because the most of NBA players are reaching their peaks at the age of 28-29.

    You can ask about some comparisions to Milicic, cause he was very young too and didn’t play on a high level for long time in Europe but Darko actually never played a solid role on his Hemofarm team and he was shining just in a Minor European Tournaments among professional players, not in Euroleague. He never actually played at this level. Kanter too. He lost a whole year which is quite nasty for young bigman (look at Hill, he had the same problem with Knicks) and he didn’t take a chance to play among big boys. He didn’t even play the game versus College players. Enes can’t be a true center too and he’s quite risky pick right now. Valanciunas is much safer. He’ll certainly be an aggressive version of healthy Andris Biedrins with much better offensive game and he could develop into a probably 15+11 center in this league which is quite great. Especially in league with much of a tweeners, power forwards but just four centers in Dwight, Bogut, Bynum and Noah

    But I want to sum up with some negative because either Kanter and Valanciunas are not ready to compete on NBA level right now (Jonas is too skinny and he already said that he has no moves on offensive end) and nobody knows how many years would it take for them to produce.

    Favors and Monroe were in the same position. Greg used just his right hand on offence (despite the fact that he is lefty). He isn’t athletic, he wasn’t actually able to shoot with any consistency but he played hard, showed great work ethic both on and off the court and right now he’s the Pistons franchise player that had some success in beating his opponents off the dribble and getting to the basket. Derrick is still stucked. You’ll never know.

    But are Rockets ready to have three raw backup centers, one old named Bra and extremely undersized one?

    Should we actually move up or let’s just wait for the dudes that can contribute immediately?

    Thank for the reading and let’s share some thoughts about this situation.
     
    1 person likes this.
  2. University Blue

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    Can this Houston team compete for a championship:

    KL, GD
    KM, CL
    Andrei Kirilenko, CB
    LS, PP
    (Free Agent Center), CH (or Free Agent, Draft Center)

    I think so.
     
  3. acshen

    acshen Contributing Member

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    I'd be willing to take a chance on Kanter. I think he will be solid.

    Nothing that hasn't been said already though.
     
  4. Garner

    Garner Member

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    Didn't realize we were a Andrei Kirilenko, Samuel Dalembert, Enes Kanter away from a championship? Fantastic!
     
  5. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    Your would be the only one.

    I agree with the OP on mosts of the points he makes and would be in favor of the blow it all up now. I Dont think that scola and martin can be real 2nd and 3rd options on a contender because of thier ddefensive defenciencies.

    I think now that Adelman is gone, it is clear which direction the FO wants to move it.

    However I think the percieved weakness of this draft kind of hurts us. It is strongest at PG ( kemba, knight, irving ) and euro's. I think that even if we move up, we should end up taking the euro with the highest ceiling ( vesley, valuncias, mojuntas, etc) they wont be ready this next year but it doesnt matter. I think trading up is acceptable but unless we really like a guy i wouldnt do it.

    The players we could get at the 2 spot i feel are lacking and i think the draft is a little deeper than thought but thinner at the top. I dont love kanter or knight. And i think taking derrick williams ( while he may be good) is a mistake... It is true that we are lacking at SF, but perry jones and barnes will come out next year and are both on a different level than williams as prospects. Also terrence williams has comparable potential and wont cost nearly as much. I think any trade up would have to be to get a Euro big.

    I do like several of the later prospects in the draft. Marshon brooks, nogureria, shelby, jeremy tyler, malcolm lee, and jordan hamilton ( as a SG) could all become good players.

    That being said. IF what it costs to move up is just scola or martin, then i would do it . I think it reaps twice the benefit. We have able backups that i think have the ability to be just as good. And we also get whoever we draft at that spot. Best case scenario is trading martin and scola for existing young players of future draft picks.

    While i agree that Bigs are much more valueable due to the rarity, i dont think that especially in a weak draft that you can reach on a big over the BPA ( the player with the highest potential) Morey needs to swing for the fences and draft someone who has a huge ceiling.

    I think the sooner we can see what we really have in t-will, lee, pat pat, and give thabeet and hill real time, the closer we know we are to really competeing.

    Yes i know that being in the top 5 of the draft next year will suck ( if scola and martin are traded and new coach has to adjust) but at least we will have the chance to add to a talented young core by drafting a player with true superstar potential ( jones, barnes, macadoo, rivers, milley, gilchrist, etc)

    Disclaimer the 2012 draft will not be as good as everyone is predicting right now BUT it will be lots better than this draft. Irving and Williams probably would not go top 5 next year.

    In a nutshell, im pessimistic about our chances of reloading and think that the future can be bright if we act now. The longer we wait to move in one direction the more bleak our prospects look as martin and scola can loose some of their value and decline.


    whew that was pretty long.
     
  6. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    Maybe that is the magic trio.
     
  7. Dreamin

    Dreamin Member

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    Its definitely a reconstruction. I dont think Les has the patience to rebuild and contend in 5 years. Martin and Scola should be kept to use in any trade efforts for that Superstar. Trading them to move up in this years draft is not worth it.

    The only centers in this draft with starting potential is Kanter or Biyombo. In the FA market Jordan, Chandler, and Dalembert remian as possible options. NeNe and Gasol might become available. Gasol will be the number 1 option but will be too hard for us. Anyone else will need to via trades.

    Our only 3 is Bud and that is unacceptable to say the least. From the draft Kawhi Leonard or Jan Vesley has the potential to start. In the FA market, theres not much. Will have to look to trade we want to upgrade.

    My minimal expectations from the draft would be to acquire Singleton and Noguiera. My minimal expections for a 5 is not being afraid to stand still if nothing comes our way, not to act out of desperation, not overpay anyone just for the sake of getting a center.
     
  8. Fullcourt

    Fullcourt Contributing Member

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    Let's do it the Thunder way. Trade everything that gives us wins, continually get very high picks, Hope someone picks the next Oden. BOOM
     

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