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Lobbying for Carmelo

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Da_Spark, May 6, 2014.

  1. Rockets FTW

    Rockets FTW Member

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    I agree man. I also think that the Rockets could provide the best chance to beat the Heat in the near future... but we just have to see what Morey has up his sleeves to combat the moves the Heat will make.
     
  2. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Member

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    Well when Whiteside starts blowing up the NBA here in a few years, I give you permission to accept your internet forum lifetime achievement award ;)

    Lots of folks around here have had fascinations about this guy, even to the point to where they blame Morey for not drafting him if you can believe it or not.

    I've played basketball all my life on different levels, and have known many guys that you look at them and say there is no way that guy can't make it in the NBA being a 7 footer, but then you see them play basketball and it makes sense. Anyone who says you are 7 foot so all you have to do is run, jump, block shots, and rebound just doesn't understand.

    I have a friend I went to college with that is 7'1", is super strong for his height, can out bench, squat, and shoots the ball lights out, but when put in organized basketball he just simply couldn't cut it. Simply put... he sucks. How someone that tall, and strong, and that healthy how they can't play basketball well is beyond me but it just simply happens. Its hard for 5'10" people to understand.

    I really do hope he proves me wrong, and I'd love for the Rockets to be the recipient. Its a shame Whiteside isn't good at basketball because the NBA needs more 7 footers who can jump out of the gym. However.... its just not gonna happen if they guy hasn't been good at basketball at any level at this point in his life.
     
  3. Mirri3000

    Mirri3000 Member

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    1 person likes this.
  4. finsraider

    finsraider Member

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  5. izeroi

    izeroi Member

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    A lot of captain obvious stuff we already knew about Melo/Love, but never considered Irving. In his 3 season's he has yet to play a full one, and i'm sure he's expecting a max contract coming up. I personally don't think he's worth the max.
     
  6. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Member

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  7. fluors

    fluors Member

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    Basketballholic, I agree that Melo is better than TJones on both sides of the ball. And I agree with you regarding spacing and the stretch four. By the way, I actually Like Melo but the Rockets Achilles heel is defense.

    I get your point about John Henson's poor DRPM (-2.35) and DefRtg (110.2). The stats suggest that these numbers are due partly to the fact that the Bucs are just a bad defensive team; with a DefRtg (via nba.com) of 108.9; 29th of 30 teams. I am not a basketball fanatic; I watch my favorite teams (Pelicans, Rockets, Clippers, Knicks, Golden State, Sacramento, Phoenix, Spurs, Miami, etc.) but not the Bucs and Cavs (unless they are playing one of my favorite teams). But if you can put aside the eye test for a minute, don't you agree that one of the three players charted below has better stats than the other two? On both sides of the ball?

    I probably wouldn't replace Henson with Hawes. Hawes's defensive stats are puzzling; e.g., his DefRtg is 109.2 but the Cavs team DefRtg is much better; e.g. 104.8. This doesn't make sense; traditionally, big men should be stalwart on defense, not liabilities. I'm curious, if not DefRtg via nba.com or DRPM (and by extension xRAPM), which stats/source do you trust most?

    Name...............PPG......RPG.......BLK........FG%.......DRPM.......ORPM......DefRtg.....Team DefRtg
    John Henson.....11.1.......7.1.......1.7...........54%........-2.35........-3.43........110.2........108.9
    Spence Hawes...13.5.......7.7.......1.0...........47%........-0.43........-2.25........109.2........104.8
    Niko Pekovic......17.5......8.7........0.4..........54%........+2.19......+1.32.......102.7.........104.1
    *DRPM (Real Plus Minus Defeense) and Offense Real Plus Minus (ORPM) via espn: http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/DRPM/position/9
    **PPG, RPG, Blk, FG%, and player/team DefRtg taken from nba.com: http://stats.nba.com/leagueTeamGene...lar Season&sortField=DEF_RATING&sortOrder=ASC
     
  8. basketballholic

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    Now..........wait a minute here...........isn't DRPM supposed to account for bad teams, bad teammates, etc.????????

    But to your point, yes, the Bucks are a bad team. They absolutely sucked rebounding the basketball, basically tied with LAL for the worst defensive rebounding team in the league. Sanders missed 75% of the season. Ilyasova missed 1/3 of the season and when he was there he was dinged and he wasn't playing with effort. Zaza missed over 1/3 of the season. So what basically happened to Henson's defensive ratings is the Bucks got totally pummeled on the defensive boards. When teams go wild on you with the tip drill....your individual defensive ratings are gonna suck even if you are a good defender and rebounder. Henson is a very good plus defender and rebounder. But he was the only guy they had down low. He played way too many minutes alongside guys like Khris Middleton who don't have the ability to really help him defensively.

    This is why I say you can't look at stats in a vacuum. Even stats "designed" to account for poor teams and teammates. You gotta watch the games, see what is happening, and then use analytics as a tool to confirm what you see happening and use analytics to find answers. Looking at numbers doesn't explain that Henson is the superior defender to Pek and Hawes. But there's no question he is.

    Yes, one guy played on a team that was fighting to make the playoffs and he is a low post tractor trailer. Pek is as wide as a house and as strong as a train and his center of gravity may not be higher than his nutsack. He may be (I said may) the strongest player in the NBA. He can catch the ball, put his body into the defender and his weight and strength prevent the defender from doing anything besides give him a nice pillow to lay the ball into the hoop. And......he played all season alongside Love and Rubio, a maligned player to be sure but a player that does know how to feed his big men. But you have to see him play and the team play to understand that. It starts by seeing the players play.

    Now, watch Henson. He's a long stringbean guy playing alongside a bunch of nothings. They weren't even trying after about the first 2 weeks of the season to win anything. Take a gander at each players minutes played. Khris Middleton led the team in minutes. John Henson was hopelessly outgunned. He had no chance. After all this is the NBA, not a 3A high school league.

    Now back to what the players actually do well and don't do well. Pek is a big, powerful, SLOW player. He doesn't have quick feet. His game is ALL POWER. Now if Pek were defending other players that were ALL POWER players, guys that could only go to the low blocks and root around for positioning THEN he may be a decent defender. But the league has VERY FEW of those type of guys in it. Why bother posting up Pek? You don't have to? Bring him out to the top of the key, face him up, and toy with him. He can't elevate to block a shot or even deter a shot. He can't slide his feet side-to-side to defend guys off the dribble. And he durn sure can't run side-to-side defending 3-ball shooters. Pek is totally one-dimensional. POWER. That's it. And his offensive game has benefitted from the fact that:

    1. He is one of the strongest players in the NBA if not the strongest.
    2. He played alongside a superstar great shooting stretch-4 that provides him with maximum space to operate with in the low blocks.

    Those things in combination make Pek a decently effective offensive player. Which in turn makes Minnesota a better offensive team.

    Enough of that. I shouldn't have to describe what Henson was having to play with. But needless to say he was all alone defensively for major stretches of the season.



    I don't look at any single stat. I look at the whole picture. I either watch the games and then look at numbers or I look at numbers and then watch video. Defensively....I don't know how anybody can make evaluations without doing it. The metrics for defense just aren't up to par like the offensive metrics. They simply don't tell the story enough. There's not enough defensive statistical information published.

    But I do pick through what stats there are and look for certain trends. For instance, big man defenders. I'm gonna gaze at DRB% for the individual player. Then I'm going to look at steals and blocks compared to personal foul count. This gives me some semblance of a clue of how inefficient he makes the players he is defending. If you add steals and blocks together and then divide by personal fouls it gives a CLUE as to a players' defensive efficiency. Not a be-all, end-all, but a clue. Those steals and blocks don't mean much if a player is getting 3 fouls for every steal and block he makes. On the other hand if he is getting 3 steals and blocks for every personal foul he commits....that's a positive sign.

    (I wish [and I'm sure NBA teams track it internally] that there was a shot defended stat published, and/or an opponent points per possession stat published. Not team but individual. A breakdown of each individual player's possessions defended. Like I said, I'm sure NBA teams have this data.)

    But beyond this simple defensive stats, I'm going to watch the player play, and understand the team, and the team defensive concept he is playing in. Watch how he moves his feet. Watch how he defends pick-and-rolls and pick-and-pops...which are the primary bread-and-butter play that most NBA offenses use to get bigs out of position and put the ball in the hole. And watch how much action the big has to take on because of how good or bad his perimeter defenders around him are. That's why I cut Henson a lot of slack. He was out there playing 1 on 3 most of the time defensively this past season.

    There's no way around it. You've got to watch the games or at least the video to determine a player's true defensive impact. You can't simply look at defensive stats. They just aren't good enough right now. There's not enough information (data) available and you can't twist and contort limited data into anything that is going to be truly representative of the player.
     
  9. Raven

    Raven Member

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  10. sammy

    sammy Member

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    B-b-but basketballholic or whatever said

    Morey
    Will
    Not
    Trade
    Parsons. :rolleyes:
     
  11. meh

    meh Member

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    It's kind of a sad day here that there are people here who actually think Steve Kyler aka poopsworld writer aka perennial hack's opinion is worth something.
     
  12. Cstyle42

    Cstyle42 Member

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    If the Rockets are truly serious about winning a championship Parsons will be traded or come off the bench.
     
  13. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Phil Jackson says he and Carmelo Anthony are &quot;communicating.&quot; &quot;I like it, I like the direction.&quot; <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Knicks&amp;src=hash">#Knicks</a></p>&mdash; Ian Begley (@IanBegley) <a href="https://twitter.com/IanBegley/statuses/472396813073657856">May 30, 2014</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Phil says he's talked to Carmelo about opting in next year. Phil said Carmelo told him he'd think about it. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Knicks&amp;src=hash">#Knicks</a></p>&mdash; Ian Begley (@IanBegley) <a href="https://twitter.com/IanBegley/statuses/472396993239982080">May 30, 2014</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Phil says he's &quot;not losing sleep over it&quot; but is &quot;definitely concerned&quot; about losing Carmelo in free agency. If so, &quot;we will survive it.&quot;</p>&mdash; Ian Begley (@IanBegley) <a href="https://twitter.com/IanBegley/statuses/472400510302289921">May 30, 2014</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Phil says he is concerned with Carmelo going into free agency because &quot;it only takes one bidder.&quot;</p>&mdash; Frank Isola (@FisolaNYDN) <a href="https://twitter.com/FisolaNYDN/statuses/472400535602343937">May 30, 2014</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
     
    #314 J.R., May 30, 2014
    Last edited: May 30, 2014
  14. Fullcourt

    Fullcourt Member

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    lmao @ Carmelo if he opts in. No way he does, maybe if he was a few years younger.
     
  15. damunkster

    damunkster Member

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    I will trust whatever morey does, but there is no doubt in my mind that Kevin Love would be the best thing that could happen for this team. We would control the boards have a lethal 3 point shooter at the 4 and could easily be more efficient team.
     
  16. basketballholic

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    And apparently you didn't watch the video posted. NOWHERE in that video did Kyler say that the Rox were willing to trade anyone but Harden and Howard.

    In fact....Kyler actually alluded to Parsons being part of the core. Here's his exact words:

    Amazing how stuff gets twisted totally out of context.





    We


    are


    not


    trading


    Parsons.
     
  17. ROXTXIA

    ROXTXIA Member

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    I honestly don't think we'll trade him either.

    But to get KLove, you'd probably have to yield Harden ("switch! switch! oops!") to a team with a high (top 5) draft pick and cap space. Then flip the pick for Love.

    I know you won't let go of the "Asik+Lin+#25+(Tjones or whatever)" idea, but that won't cut it for Love.

    It might work for Carmelo, but we can't be sure of pulling a Jedi mind trick on Phil Jackson.

    Dwight Howard
    Carmelo Anthony
    Chandler Parsons
    James Harden
    Patrick Beverly

    I'm down with that lineup. And I can imagine more than a few suitors for Asik. But where to flush Jeremy Lin's contract?
     
  18. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Member

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    Its funny how folks take "The Rockets are willing to trade any player (other than Howard and Harden) for the right player" as they are DEFINITELY trading Parsons and whomever else because apparently then are expendable.

    No. It doesn't work like that.

    NBA trading is like horse trading, or bargaining for things you are going to get and not get on the new car you are purchasing. The Rockets will more than likely bring EVERYONE up or have EVERYONE brought up in trade talks, but it doesn't mean they are just giving up a guy like Parsons at all costs. Only thing this means is the Rockets are willing to negotiate for the right player. How the hell is that a bad thing? Has Morey ever been severely raped on a deal yet? The guy obviously knows how to negotiate. Have a little bit of trust here folks.

    Parsons is an important part of this team moving forward, and if you think Morey actively WANTS to give up Parsons for anyone in this league, you are crazy. Morey will horse trade all day long to supplement OTHER ASSETS to makeup for Parsons to get a deal done.

    Is Parsons ....

    Not
    Going
    To
    Get
    Traded.....

    Nobody knows that, but I can guarantee you that Morey will do everything he can to keep him OUT of the deal. The Rockets love Parsons. That's all you need to be concerned about right now. If he gets traded, they have pretty damn good reasons for doing the deal.
     
    #319 dobro1229, May 30, 2014
    Last edited: May 30, 2014
  19. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    Why would Melo opt in? He can lock up a ton of guaranteed money right now. All it takes is one serious injury either for his career to be over or for his earning potential to decline drastically.

    It is good for the Knicks. They get to wait a year to decide on Melo. If he isn't as good as he is now, they get to let him go along with everyone else and start with a clean slate. But Melo would be stupid to opt in and Phil Jackson should know it.

    BTW, I wonder how well Phil Jackson is going to fare in NY. He has a great reputation and the NY market is a good draw. But Jackson has NEVER been an exec before. Has he done college scouting/draft? How well does he know the Collective Bargaining Agreement? And that Knicks roster is just not good, and they won't have the flexibility to turn things around until 2015.

    Meanwhile, if Phil loses Melo, or if he keeps Melo and the team still has a mediocre year like they did last season, does Phil's mystique begin to fade? Does it make it harder for him to sell the next big time FA next summer on the Phil Jackson program?
     

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