LLULL: Tug-of-war between Real Madrid and the Rockets

We can pay whatever we want. If you really think he is a star pay him Rubio money and just reverse engineer the deal so that he gets paid less each year. I am not saying do that just that you can. And if we do lose Dragic some of the money we planned on spending on him could be used for Llull.

My gut is Llull would like to play here more than he lets on. There is big money to be made here if you can excel. I think Llull believes he can excel. Personally I can deal with losing Llull if we sign Dragic. What I do know is if we lose Dragic and then Llull that would be a setback for this franchise. Acquiring and then losing them for nothing is the worst.

This drafting overseas players isn't working out so well. The problem is if you draft them to stash them and they blow up over there you don't get that discounted 2nd round price you had hoped for. I do not envy Morey's job.

 

I do like that Morey is thinking several moves ahead and looking at multiple options. This year has proven how important backcourt depth is to a team. We've kept humming along with our starting PG and SG down for long periods of time. Even in healthy times you can easily provide long minutes (32 per game) for 3 guards, as long as one or more are versatile to move from PG to SG.

With Courtney Lee a RFA, Goran Dragic a UFA, KMart's contract up at the end of 2012-13 (and possibly traded sooner), and KLow's contract up at the end of 2013-14 (same as Llull's Real Madrid contract) - we could have feast or famine within 2 years at Guard. In any event we could clearly offer Llull a lot of PT (if EARNED) by 2014-15.

 

You can still get a pretty good deal on the 2nd round picks who excel overseas. For example, Marc Gasol got drafted in the 2nd round and had an excellent year in Spain. He ended up signing a $3.5 million/year rookie deal (IIRC), certainly higher than that of most 2nd rounder but still a very reasonable contract. Tiago Splitter signed a 3 year, $11 million contract (he was a late 1st rounder, but since he waited several years before coming over, the rookie scale no longer applied) after being one of the better bigs in Spain.

Of course, there are the foreign draftees who never makes it to the NBA out of personal choice or being offered more $ in Europe despite having sufficient talent. But that's risk you take.

 

noone will say byebye, cuz Lull sux, how can u write this ****, w/o knowing his skills..etc

And more... u think he will replace Dragic? get real omg...

 

I think Vassilis Spanoulis was in the range of $5M for 3 years...which turned into Luis Scola for the bargain of $9.5M for 3 years.

 

Yes. Established pros are going to command drafted in the 2nd round will command more than the league minimum on their first NBA deal, but can still be a bargain. Scola is another good example.

 

Precisely my point. Normally 2nd rounders get minimum contracts. Good Euro second rounders can't be had for minimum contracts. So you can't just let them blow up overseas and then expect them to sign here for peanuts. I think Llull will require a Mark Gasol type contract to get him to come over.

The better they get the more they cost and then you have to ask yourself was it worth spending 3 mil on a second round pick for a player who may not play. I don't know the answer to that. But it seems to me if you are going to spend 3 mil on a kid in Europe you should be pretty sure you can bring him over. Which would mean knowing he is committed to playing in the NBA and that he wouldn't sign any contract that would be difficult to buy out. Live and learn.

 

Buyout over 500k counts towards caps, but cap space isn't needed to pay buyout.

 

I meant M Gasol's rookie deal. $3.5 million/year. I also agree even at that rate it's a gamble. There's no guarantee what he is doing in Europe will translate to the NBA. I think it will but it's still a risk at best. Who would have guessed Lin would blow up or Dragic. I think Llull has a lot of the qualities to make it in the NBA. Speed, quickness, good shooter and passer, right attitude, a passion for the game. The key is how badly does he want to come over. If he signs an extension this off season than it's over. If he doesn't then it's on and one way or another he will be a Rocket.

 

Hope he comes over here...I wouldn't see him coming over here though if he is 3rd string...think he has to believe he can at least come as backup to give him chance of becoming starter eventually...the success of Rubio obviously has him thinking about NBA and that he can be a success as well...whatever happens I believe the rockets are going to do what they have been doing and that is developing good pg's so I dont see a prob in whatever happens...

 

While I agree it would be stupid to let Dragić go for an unproven player, I'm curious: what makes you think Llull is a prima donna?

 

i just don't have much tollerance for guys who only want to come over if they are guaranteed a starting spot. The sense of entitlement bugs me; especially when they haven't proven a thing in the best basketball league in the world. If they don't have enough confidence in themselves to EARN playing time then i think that is p***y ****.

 

You're probably right about the size of Llull's first NBA contract, but don't assume that he'll definitely be a Rocket.

Remember, Scola was in a very similar situation with the Spurs back in 2007. He wanted to come over to San Antonio, but the Spurs were reluctant. When he threatened to sign a long-term deal in Spain, the Spurs quickly worked a trade with Houston to get something out of his draft rights. While the Rockets clearly got the better end of the Scola trade, the Spurs did manage to save a total of about $7 million or so in salary and luxury tax in that deal.

The Rockets could pursue a similar avenue, with the "value" perhaps being more of the "player asset" variety rather than the "cost savings" one. If another team has a rotation PG/SG spot and highly values Llull, then the Rockets--even if they re-sign Dragic AND keep Lowry--could still TRADE Llull for additional assets.

(And as far as "sinking all that money into the Llull pick", I'm going to pull a page from DD's manifesto--in a rare display of agreement with him--and say that it was "only" cash, which Les Alexander had plenty of after insurance payouts on Yao and Tracy. I recall being very happy to see Les willing to spend so much money to buy picks in 2009 and to show Rockets fans how willing he was to spend on this team.)

P.S. I think the Rockets actually paid MORE money (~$2.5 million) for the #32 pick (Jermaine Taylor) from Washington, two picks before the Llull pick.

 

If the Rockets think Llul has potential, then the obvious move is to trade Lowry. Llul's trade value is very little. Perhaps a 2nd rounder or low 1st rounder. Probably enough to recuperate what they paid for in the first place, but that's about it.

And given the Rockets generous amount of capspace plus unlikelihood that Deron Williams will be taking that space, I can see a scenario where the Rockets pay quite a bit for Dragic and Llul in the offseason, and move Lowry to make room.

Then again, I have no clue how highly Morey values Llul.

 

Marketing how? He's not Latino.

 

I think you undervalue the scouting departments of the other 29 NBA teams.

Sergio Llull would be a highly sought-after commodity were he a free agent.

And don't forget, despite the fact that it was a horrible trade at the time and the Griz likely had no idea he'd be this good, the primary "long-term player asset" acquired by Memphis in the "Pau Gasol to the Lakers" deal was Marc Gasol, then an MVP-candidate in the ACB League.

 

I think that's a hind-sight view of the trade. Gasol was traded 7 months after the draft. If teams thought 7 months later that Gasol was worth trading away an all-star PF, then he'd never have been a 2nd round pick in the first place. So no, I don't think I'm underestimating the scouting department of NBA teams.

In addition, if the Rockets think that highly of Llul, then the best way to get the most value is to keep him.

 

Another guy in the "Scola" situation-- rights held as a 2nd round pick for years before the team traded his rights to Houston and the Rockets bring him over: David Andersen.

Andersen also signed for a # higher than the minimum ($2-2.5 mil, I think) but isn't much in the greater scheme of things.

Anyhow, paying cash (which didn't count against the cap) and using a 2nd rounder on a guy who didn't come over isn't much. 2nd round picks don't pan out all the time. Now, if you use a lotto pick on a guy who never comes over (like Orlando did in 2005), that would hurt.