I wasn't trying to talk smack. You clearly know much more about baseball than I do. I just thought it would be interesting to see if Lidge struggles down the stretch. I admit, I do want him to struggle since he is no longer an Astro. I agree there is much more evidence suggesting that he should do well the rest of the season but anything is possible.
I understand, and you're a good poster -- I apologize if I overreacted. But there are definitely a lot of completely irrational folks when it comes to Lidge (not you), so I tend to jump on things very quickly. By the way, in a save situation today (the very next day after allowing five runs and a grand slam), Lidge pitched a perfect ninth for the save. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=280726122&page=plays If he were a headcase, today would've been the perfect day for him to have a meltdown... instead, he was perfect. I'm definitely not Lidge's biggest fan. He has his problems, and he's not perfect. I just don't think, given the evidence we have, that his flaws are mental -- that's my only beef.
It's be interesting to see poll results to a question asking who would you rather have between Valverde and Lidge. Maybe throw in Wagner in there just to account for the fuzzy feel good veil of time. I'd take the in reverse order. Ahhh time and short term memory. But seriously. I'd take Lidge over Valverde and Wagner over Lidge.
Yea, I watched him get that save online. 1-2-3. That was plenty of pressure like you said. Not only was he coming off a bad outing but the Phillies made a tremendous comeback. It would have been demoralizing for him and the Phillies to lose that one.
Not really: Closer proven over a decade > Lidge And Valverde and Lidge are interchangeable at this point.
Um, no. In the last five years, Lidge has had three with an ERA under 2.3 where he was the best closer in the NL. In another, he was still quite serviceable with a 3.3 ERA. Valverde hasn't even had a single season in the past five with an ERA under 2.3, and in this current season, Lidge is 24-for-24 with a 2.25 ERA, while Valverde is 26-for-32 with a 4.75 ERA. Not interchangeable at all. By the way, Lidge had another save today. If he were a mental case, yesterday and today would've been the perfect opportunities to have a meltdown. Instead, he's excelled -- hasn't even allowed a hit.
Lidge is a much better closer, this season. But you're mistaken in just looking at ERA for Lidge. Last year he had that "quite serviceable" era of 3.3, and nobody would tell you that was a good season. He blew 8 of his 27 save chances and walked a ridiculous number of batters. He performed much worse in save situations and lost his position as closer for much of the season. Valverde wasn't the best closer in the NL, but he saved 47 with a 2.6 ERA and was a clearly more valuable pitcher last season than was Lidge. I don't think you can go back 5 years looking at closer statistics and get meaningful insight. Last year Valverde was the better closer, this year it's Lidge.
Meant to post this yesterday ... great article in Sunday's Philadelphia Inquirer about Lidge's slider and how dominant it's been this year. Check out these stats: Batters are hitting .115 against the slider 50% of the 375 sliders he's thrown were swung on and missed 52% of at-bats that ended with a slider were a strikeout Dominant! Brad Lidge and the slider By Jim Salisbury Inquirer Staff Writer The slider can be a crucial part of a pitcher's repertoire. Hall of Famer Steve Carlton had one of the best ever. Larry Andersen threw about three billion of them - and that was just in his first stint with the Phillies. Closer Brad Lidge has one of the best in the game today, unique and devastating because of the unusual way it breaks. "Verrrry unusual," said teammate Jamie Moyer, who has earned a Ph.D. in pitching over 22 major-league seasons. In general, the slider is a breaking pitch that moves laterally with a downward tilt as it reaches the hitter. Close your eyes and you can still see Carlton cocking his wrist and throwing his "slide piece," as some in the game refer to the pitch. To a righthanded hitter, it appears to be about thigh high, over the outer third of the plate before bending sharply, inward and downward on the hitter, a good one almost singeing the shoelaces on his back foot. The righthanded Andersen threw a traditional slider. Against a righthanded hitter, he would throw the pitch toward the outer third of the plate. When well thrown, the pitch would have a tight spin, looking almost like a fastball until it broke laterally, away from the hitter, painting the black of the plate, and, in a perfect situation, creating a swing and miss. Lidge, a righthander, throws a traditional slider, one that comes in looking like a fastball before it breaks to the left with a slight downward tilt. He also uses a backdoor slider, one that he throws a little slower than the traditional one. He starts the pitch out of the strike zone and tries to bend it over the outside corner of the plate against a lefthanded hitter. But the slider that has caused fits in the National League this season - excluding Friday night's five-run hiccup - is quite different. Depending on the count and the game situation, Lidge can vary his release point, get on top of the ball, increase the torque in his wrist, and produce an almost unhittable slider that comes at the hitter looking like a fastball until it breaks sharply downward. Opponents were hitting just .115 against Lidge's slider entering Thursday, according to Stats Inc. Only Milwaukee's CC Sabathia (.101) was holding batters to a lower average on sliders. Among pitchers who have thrown 200 or more sliders this season, Lidge was tied with Chicago's Kerry Wood for the best swing-and-miss percentage on the pitch. Entering Thursday, Lidge had thrown 375 sliders, resulting in 174 swings and 87 misses (50 percent). Wood had thrown 200 sliders, getting 64 swings and 32 misses. In at-bats that end with a slider, Lidge had a strikeouts per 100 at-bats percentage of 51.7 percent entering Thursday. Only Sabathia (54.4) was better. "When Brad puts his slider where he wants to, there's not a hitter in the league who can put it in play hard," said Florida's Wes Helms, who is 3 for 9 against Lidge during his career. "If it's down, you're not going to drive it. It's the top slider in the league." Down is the key word. Lidge's "out pitch" slider breaks so unusually that some folks don't know what it is. Moyer said it looks like an "accelerated curveball." Former major leaguer Fernando Vina, an analyst on ESPN's Baseball Tonight, routinely calls it a splitter. A splitter will break downward, but it does so with more of a tumbling effect. Lidge's slider breaks down with a more intense bite. A longtime NL scout who didn't want to be named said Lidge has the best slider he's seen this season. But even the scout wasn't sure it was a slider when he first started seeing it. "If you walked into a park, you'd say, 'Oh, he's throwing a split,' " the scout said. "For years I thought he was. But it's a slider. And it's a great one. He's throwing it for strikes. Last year, he wasn't. That, along with his fastball coming back, have been the key for him." After struggling with consistency the last two seasons in Houston, Lidge is once again an elite closer in Philadelphia. Lidge has converted all of his 23 save chances, including one in yesterday's 10-9 win over Atlanta. Lidge's fastball regularly tops 95 m.p.h. and he complements the pitch with three different sliders that vary from 84 to 90 m.p.h. He holds the pitch with his index and middle finger across the narrow seams and varies the break with his release point and wrist snap. When Lidge needs a big out, he increases the pressure with his fingers – they almost resemble a cobra's fangs coming down on the ball – and snaps his wrist violently. The result is a slider that comes in hard, like a fastball, then breaks straight downward as it reaches the plate. Lidge isn't the first pitcher to get this type of action on a slider. Juan Guzman's slider used to break this way. Moyer recalled that Jeff Russell's had similar movement. Joba Chamberlain's has a similar look at times. But Lidge's slider stands out. The pitch needs a nickname. The Torpedo? Lidge chuckled at the suggestion. All he cares about is getting hitters out with the pitch. Lidge said he actually stumbled on the pitch. He threw a curveball in the minors, but, at the suggestion of Dewey Robinson, one of his pitching coaches in the Houston system, switched to a slider to take pressure off his arm. Once he started throwing the pitch, it came naturally – killer downward break and all. "For whatever reason, right from the beginning, it started going straight downward," Lidge said. "I know how to throw it, but I'm not sure how I got there." Lidge said this year's slider is the best he's ever had. He has great confidence in the pitch, and he's controlling it brilliantly. For that, he thanks a spring-training knee injury. "That forced me to slow everything down and really work on my control," he said. "I really could work on the nuances of the pitch." When Lidge decides to throw the Torpedo, he must be fully committed to the pitch and confident in his catcher because there are times when the trapdoor will open and the pitch will be in the dirt. Phillies catchers Carlos Ruiz and Chris Coste have told Lidge that if he lets the pitch rip, they'll block it. Coste loves the pitch and gets a chuckle when Lidge has it going well. "He'll throw a couple of sliders that break hard and down out of the strike zone, and the hitter will swing," Coste said. "You can almost hear the hitter telling himself, 'OK, he won't throw this one for a strike, don't swing.' Then Brad will throw one right down the middle and get the guy looking. "It's an incredible weapon. And he has a 97 m.p.h. fastball to go with it. When a guy has pitches like that, it's easy to call a game." http://www.philly.com/inquirer/sports/25953104.html
I would. Not great, but certainly good. Completely distorted statistic. I can think of one scenario, in particular, where Lidge came in in the 6th inning with the bases loaded and none out against the heart of the Cincinnati lineup. Did a wonderful job -- only gave up one run, on a medium depth fly ball from Adam Dunn -- and kept the Astros from falling behind. But by the absurd, ridiculous "save" statistic, he was given a blown save. You should only consider "save chances" when he comes in in the ninth inning. Actually, he lost his position as closer for about six weeks -- mid April to the beginning of June. Much of the season is quite a stretch. Also, his performance going down happened to coincide with a serious knee injury that led to immediate surgery after the season and walking around on one leg before and after games -- that probably wasn't coincidental. And Lidge was clearly a more valuable pitcher in 2008, 2006, 2005 and 2004. While 2004-06 aren't as valid as this season and last, they do carry some weight and aren't irrelevant.
Wow, really? Lidge had a 5.28 ERA in 2006. He sucked. Valverde 5.84. I wouldn't call a 5.28 "clearly more valuable" than 5.84, they were both really bad. Degrees of suckiness. Lidge had a 2.29 in 2005. Valverde was 2.44. Clearly better?? Lidge had a 1.90 in 2004. Valverde 4.25. Lidge was much better in 04. Lidge had a 3.60 in 2003. Valverde 2.15. Valverde was much better in 03. So in 08 (so far) and 04 Lidge has been much better. In 07 and 03, Valverde was much better. There's not much difference in 05 or 06. Valverde has a career ERA of 3.51, WHIP of 1.21. Lidge has a career ERA of 3.20, WHIP of 1.20. Lidge will also be 32 in December, Valverde just turned 29. I don't see how their careers have been so different to this point. The actual numbers just don't support your "clearly better" argument.
I'm not sure what to say, really. A difference of more than a half-run in ERA, coupled with a better WHIP and lower BAA, makes one pitcher clearly more valuable than the other. In addition, Lidge had a higher save percentage (32-for-38) and more total saves than Valverde (18-for-22) -- the very statistic you claim was so valuable in 2007. If you don't see that Lidge's 2006 was clearly better than Valverde's, I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. Seems incredibly clear cut. I'll give you that that's slight as far as ERA goes, but where I'm stunned is in how you can claim in one breath that saves are particularly valuable (2007) and then completely ignore them and act as if they're irrelevant when they're in Lidge's favor. In 2005, Lidge's 42 saves coupled with only four blown saves was astounding. Now, I'm not one to make that big of a deal of S/BS ratio -- but I'm confused as to how you don't consider it your evaluation of 2005 but consider it paramount in your evaluation of 2007. There's a pretty significant difference in 2005 and 2006 -- you just choose not to acknowledge it. And the differences in career ERA become even more pronounced when you take their first seasons (six years ago) out of the mix. The age argument isn't particularly valid with closers, either. Also, there are varying degrees of much better. In 2008 and 2004 -- the years you cite for Lidge -- Lidge has an ERA edge of 2.5 (2.25-4.75) in 2008 and 2.35 (1.90-4.25) in 2004. In 2007 and 2003 -- the years you cite for Valverde -- Valverde has an ERA edge of 0.7 (2.66-3.36) in 2007 and 1.45 (2.15-3.60) in 2003. To imply as if those seasons even themselves out is simply wrong. I'm not sure under what metric Lidge isn't clearly better. He has a better career ERA. He has more career saves. He's much better in this current season. He's been better in 2 of the last 3 seasons. He's been better in 4 of the last 5 seasons. It's a no-brainer.
I get it, I get it. But it's like saying that Woody Williams last season (8 - 15, 5.27 ERA) was clearly better than Matt Albers (4 - 11, 5.86). They both were terrible, but Williams was "clearly better". I still don't think either is going to include that year in their career highlights. It's like comparing Rosie O'Donnell and Star Jones in a beauty pagent. In 2007, Valverde was better by every single metric. My point on 2007 was, look at Lidge's breakdowns. He had a 2.34 ERA at the All-Star break with zero saves, being used almost exclusively in non-save situations. He didn't save a single game for the Astros until July, where his ERA was 2.79. Returned to the closer position, he proceeded to post a 5.11 ERA in August and a 5.23 ERA in September. He failed to demonstrate that in 2007 that he could perform at a high level in closing situations. Even though both 2003 and 2004 are pretty meaningless in evaluating these guys currently, you insist in ignoring the former and placing significance in the latter. 2008 and (maybe) 2007 are the only meaningful seasons to evaluate. I'm not sure under what metric Lidge isn't clearly better. [/QUOTE] I'm not making the argument that Lidge isn't a better closer this season. He clearly is. You just extoll his virtues too much, make him out to be something he's not. He was never, ever the same pitcher in Houston after he gave up the bomb to Pujols. He had a terribad 2006 and a 2007 where he proved that he was back ... when pitching in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings. He still sucked in the 9th.
It depends on how you frame it. I've never tried to claim he was the same pitcher in Houston -- all I've tried to do is show that his problems weren't mental. He was very good in July with the title of closer, then suddenly went back to mediocre in August and September. Did it suddenly "kick in" in August, or was it more likely that a knee injury (one that got progressively worse, to the point that he could barely walk before and after games) took its toll? I think the latter is significantly more likely, and thus, the story of the 2007 Lidge is that he proved he was back... when healthy. It continued into 2008, after he had the knee fixed. With that said, if you think I overrate Lidge, you're free to argue that -- but whether that be the case or not, he still has a better history as a closer than Valverde. The gap may or may not be large, depending on your perspective, but clearly Lidge has an edge.
To follow up on Lidge, 2007. Running down his innings pitched in the 9th and in extra innings, he allowed 36 hits and 24 walks in 36 2/3 innings, giving a WHIP of 1.64. He allowed 26 runs in those 36 2/3 innings for an ERA of 6.38. You can argue that 9th+ inning numbers are meaningless, but there's a reason why guys like Rivera and K-Rod get paid the big bucks. Pitching is tougher in those pressure situations, and Lidge failed in those situations last season. He needed a change of address. And that was true not just after his surgery. He sucked early in the season too, whenever he was placed in those spots. Look at the first two games he pitched in 07.
I understand that. However -- and I hate being redundant here -- but you could just as easily argue that those numbers proved he needed a healthy knee. The timeline fits, exactly -- Lidge first went on the DL in the two weeks preceding the All-Star break, and acknowledged that surgery was an inevitability around the beginning of August. I can also tell you, from first-hand knowledge, that even basic tasks like walking in the clubhouse became progressively more difficult for him as he continued to throw on it. (As a side note, I think what happened with Lidge last year was as big a sign as any that the upper management in this organization has little sense of direction or understanding of where this franchise is at. Why they continued to run Lidge out there on a knee that they knew required surgery -- with the team 15+ games out in August and September -- I'll never know. The obvious decision, for a bad team, was to get him fixed, and give him more time to recover for the next season. Instead, they made it more difficult on him and the next season (note that Lidge re-injured the same knee in spring training) and also hurt his trade value, as his performance slipped significantly in that time. Makes no sense all the way around, but that's the Astros for you.)
Not Lidge related at all, but Red Sox are interested in Tejada. http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blo...dex?name=mlb_trade_deadline&month=7&year=2008 "Sources: Red Sox interested in Tejada Monday, July 28, 2008 | Print Entry Posted by Enrique Rojas The Red Sox have had discussions with the Astros about shortstop Miguel Tejada, sources told ESPNdeportes.com's Enrique Rojas. One source said the conversations between the two teams had just started. Another source, one close to Tejada, said the Red Sox and Astros have been in talks for some time now about a trade. "I feel good in Houston, but I wouldn't be afraid to accept the challenge of playing in Boston," Tejada said in a telephone interview. "
