He's lost movement on his pitches, along with location. The batters can now distinguish better between his fb and his slider because the slider moves earlier and doesn't break as sharply. Thus the good hitters aren't thinking about the slider as much because they can identify it much earlier in it's trajectory and either lay off or hold back and loop down the swing. Or they can just sit on the fb and jack it. Velocity don't mean a thing without the deceptive movement. Those guys hit off the hitting machines all winter. Good major league hitters can gear up and hit 100 mph these days. Lidge is a 2 pitch pitcher that never knew/learned how to vary speeds anyways, especially on the fb, unlike Rivera who has built a hall of fame career by mastering changing speeds on his pitches as his artful deception. Lidge's whole game is based on that late movement of the slider. It sets up his fb. And his slider only breaks like that when he throws it full force like the fb. I personally believe that he took roids and when he quit taking them, he lost just enough movement and speed that now he is just a very pedestrian relief pitcher. I believe the roids gave him an edge in movement and an extra mph or two on the radar gun as well as a recoverability edge from night to night to keep him throwing gas up there night after night. What I mean by sudden decline is he went from one of the top 3 stoppers in baseball last year to tailing off at the end of last season and further decline this year. He didn't just lose a little bit or have a gradual decline the way that superstar players have over the years. He's lost his whole game in less than one season. Yeah, I agree with the poster that says he was losing it before the playoffs last season. A player his age just doesn't lose it that fast unless he suffers an injury or there is some other factor. A couple months ago the story was he was tipping his pitches out of the windup. So, ...is he still tipping pitches that way? I think not. I think they are being tipped when they come out of his hand because the slider isn't breaking as sharply or as late and the fb is a couple mph slower and straighter. And he is trying to overcompensate by locating the fb and that is causing him to get behind and have to come with a pitch in the zone that doesn't move. As for the rumors about the roids, I don't care to chase them down, but if you did your homework during the last few months on that issue, Lidge's name came up more than once. Yeah, there is no proof, I know that. But what is the answer? I only see 3 possibilities: 1. He is injured. 2. He is mentally shot after Pujols blew him up last year. 3. His performance was enhanced before by roids and now he can't use them to enhance his performance. I don't think he is injured. And he has come back to pitch this year in spots and at times dominating, so I find #2 not very likely. I think the likely scenario is he can't handle the day to day grind of being the closer and his arm gets run down after a couple days of throwing in a game. Because of his age, it leads me to suspect that his performance last year and the year before were enhanced by supplements that allowed his arm to recover in a shorter time span and let him throw at his peak on a nightly basis. Just my opinion.
But if it's steroids, how does that fit with his vastly different performance in save vs. non-save opportunities? One of Lidge's problems seems to be pitching with people on. With no one on, he has a fantastic WHIP of 1.17 and batting-average-against of 0.217. With men on, those rise to 1.83 and 0.272. So his problem seems to basically snowball. If he doesn't let anyone on, he's great. Once someone does get on, it all falls apart. Why that is, I have no idea (also, this doesn't fit with the save/non-save thing necessarily).
This is going to sound r****ded... but... Maybe it is psychological. He could start to press when he has a runner on. If it's a makeup issue, then why did it crop up towards the end of last season?
"If he doesn't let anyone on, he's great." That's a profound statement. And true. You could make the same argument about "Gas Can" Micelli the year before last. The problem is he is letting people on. Look, the best batters only get hits 3 times out of 10. So, the odds are in his favor. Even with mediocre stuff, there should be some innings where he manages to get the hitter to miss the pitch by that 1/100000 of an inch and pop the ball up or ground out. But his ERA is over 5 and he is blowing up when it counts. He ain't got it. You are right. He is having trouble pitching with people on. And pray tell, what is a reliever supposed to be good at? He can't bear down night in and night out. Anybody MLB pitcher can come into the game and start the 6th or 7th inning and get 3 outs without giving up runs. (BTW, Lidge has done had his opportunities there and managed to fill up the bases and let them in anyways.) But a reliever has got to be able to come in under pressure and get the K or get the DP ground ball and prevent the run from scoring from 2nd with less than 2 outs. That is the definition of a short term relief pitcher. They come in and throw 5-8 top notch pitches and get the outs. He has lost it. Is there any other reason that makes any sense?
I don't disagree that he's struggling. I just was questioning that it was steroids. If that were it, he'd have problems across the board, but his success is very different in different situations (save vs. non-save, men on vs. clear bases).
Overall he's got an ERA of over 5. That's bad for a starting pitcher. It is atrocious for relief pitcher. He does have problems across the board. It's just the odds of them biting him in the rear go down when he starts an inning with no runners on base. But if you run him out there to start 9 different innings and pitch one inning apiece, I'd bet his ERA still hovered over 5, especially if you start working him 3 and 4 days at a time. I think that is where the roids becomes a factor. The roids allows athletes quick recovery times from physical exertion/fatigue/workout. They help the muscle to recover quicker. See, I think if you put Lidge out there every 4th day to start the 7th inning and pitch one inning, that he would probably have pretty decent numbers, because he does have good stuff. But, if you put him out there 3 or 4 days in a row, then give him a day off, then he's in there again for 2 games in a row, then another day off, maybe 2 days off, then he's in there again for 2 or 3 games in a row, I don't think he would get enough recovery time to give that lights out stuff. Even before he broke down, his numbers reflected the fact that if he was in there for more than one inning or more than about 20 pitches, his effectiveness went in the toilet. So, even at his best, he can't give you more than one inning on too many occasions. Hey, I'm saying I suspect roids, but actually I suspect some illegal substance. It doesn't necessarily have to be raw roids. It could be one of those "banned" substances that essentially get their "goody" from a steroid element or some other performance enhancer. I suspect that he has had to stop taking something that was helping him, whatever it is. This day and age, there's so much stuff out there, I can't keep up with all of them, creams, pills, powders, etc. Of course, I'm pretty suspicious when it comes to steroids. Personally, I am convinced that Roger did them, and I'm convinced that along with Caminetti that Bagwell did them. Not too many people want to recognize the use of steroids when it comes to our local heroes, but when you look at Bagwell's body, and how he bulked up, and the size of his dome, along with his on field performance, how can you really not suspect? Same thing with Roger. I know Roger has always been a big pitcher, but he was bringing it at an age when he should have been sitting at the house. I don't think he is on them now of course. I also think that probably played into his decision to come back midseason right along with his age. Roger is a little bit more difficult case to speculate on because he is old. But the puffy face, the pecs, forearms.... suspicious.
Again, this doesn't fit the results. The majority of his terrible outings have come after one or more days off. And he's had plenty of those perfect-inning back-to-back saves.
