On a scale of 1-10 (1 = disgusted & I'd like to punch someone in the face; 10 = best money ever spent!), what was your level of disgust for the Jose Abreu contract on: July 31: October 12: Go!
5- I initially thought there was an avenue where yuli would resign for cheap and they would platoon 1B 10
The only time that matters is when the deal was made. I liked it then and still think it will be liked over the three years. You don't just fall off the truck when you've been successful for that long. I was firmly ready to give him another shot in Spring Training, even if he hadn't gotten hot.
8 When signed 4 on July 31 9 today. Bottom line, his salary is less than 8% of the overall CBT threshhold. When he signed, I thought he would be a guy who could slide in as 5th or 6th best hitter and lengthen the lineup. And the team had a hole and few options to fill it. Yuli simply isn't an everyday player anymore so bringing him back would not completely fill that hole. I was worried about his health as an older player, and if he would be a guy who produced in the post season. He has proven only health the next 2 years is a concern for me. I still think that resting him 1 game per week would make him better over 162 games. I hope they do that next year, but need a legitimate backup for that to happen. When discussing the contract, most people use some version of WAR vs salary but something to consider is that post season numbers don't count in WAR. So instead of saying he needs to produce X WAR for every $X million, maybe make that only 3/4 of the equation and playoff performance 1/4?? The problem is WAR isn't factored in the post season, so I'm not sure how that would work. Having post season WAR would make that easier. But I would like to figure out a way to put that together.
You do when you're old, and he's old. Hopefully, the big driver this year was health. But I don't expect him to ever be an .850+ OPS guys again. His best days are definitely behind him.
The adjustment I would make was dropping him down the line up as he struggles until he's hitting again. This is the type of managerial decision I don't understand. The tactical decisions more than the strategic decisions.
There is seasonal variation and typical age decline. But just falling off the trends doesn't usually happen. But how long was he having a back problem before it got reported? Playing through pain only works if you can still perform close to expected levels. I had to give up golf when my mind said if you just play, your back will loosen up. My back said, "You've lost your F'n MIND!" The last time I was on a golf course I was addressing the ball on the 17th tee and couldn't start my backswing as my knees began to buckle.
9 When signed and 10 today 7 during season only because I knew he would be big in the post season I always felt adding a proven vet to this team (like we had in Beltran and McCann) who was still hungry would outweigh his batting average at times.
So, for me the question is did (will) Abreu perform at a level to "earn" his contract. If the typical accepted level is 1 WAR per $10M (I prefer $8M) then he needed 2 WAR but got -0.1 bWAR and -0.6 fWAR. How much can post season success raise that, and if it does how is that calculated? WPA or cWPA? WAR isn't tracked in the postseason so some other measure will need to be used and a conversion made to compare it to WAR. This very much interests me.
Offseason: As long as we keep Yuli as an extra bat/utility issa all good. Not my money. Midway through the season and late August: He needs to bat 7th. Other great Astros have batted 7th. Now: Can you imagine if we had kept Yuli! We'd lead the league in open jerseys. Yuli, Abreu, Singleton. If you want to get me in a gotcha moment, it has to be Uncle Mike. I had completely given up on him ever returning. And the organization lying to us. His addition has been an adrenaline shot to the team mentally and at the plate.
He has not EARNED his contract in 23. But he can over the three years. But he can be a key cog in the ALCS and WS as he was in the ALDS. What's that worth? Ask Chas.
I hope he (Brantley) gives us a discount on 2024 after missing most of this season. I'm not sure how the connection with the post got lost.
For most of the season, this team was missing a LH bat ( or bat vs RHP if you prefer). Uncle Mike's return helped that tremendously. So how do they fill that hole for next year? 1) bring back Brantley? 2) trade for a 1B/OF/DH bat that is .800+ OPS vs RHP but not necessarily a starter. 3) allow a youngster like Loperfido, Wagner, Hamilton, Dirden or someone I'm not considering develop on the roster in that role. 4) bring in a 2/3 of the time starting catcher and use Diaz in that role (he murders righties) starting catcher 1/3, DH 1/3, and 1B once per week.
My preference is 1). He might be a platoon player against RHers only though. But that's OK since most SP are still RHed. Alxarez and Tucker are just great against LHPers, but Brantley isn't.
