If that was true, then Rockets wouldn't have a 11 year 2nd round playoff drought until 2008-09. Free agents would have signed with the Rockets for playing hard. Reality says the Rockets would have been better off with 2 more losses in 2005-06 and Brandon Roy. However, they got 2 more wins and the ability to sign premier free agents Scott Padgett and Bouncy Whales to chase a ring with the Rockets. Rockets would have gone further in the playoffs and sold more tickets each season with Roy-T-Mac-Yao than Battier-T-mac-Yao.
On the flip side of the coin, why would any non-contenders WANT over the hill ex-superstars on their teams? You think a lottery team want Karl Malone or Grant Hill starting over their recent top 10 pick? Or taking shots away from their "up and coming" superstar? Would, for example, the Sacramento Kings start Karl Malone(Lakers era), PJ Brown(Celtics era) over the current Landry? Older veteran players by default are worth more to contenders, who are not focused on player development for obvious reasons. Also, your whole "all things being equal" argument is useless because all things are NOT equal. All teams have inherent advantages or disadvantages when it comes to attracting FA since things don't work in a vacuum. Seriously, how the Rockets play out the season is practically meaningless in the grand scheme of things. If anything, I'd say the risk of one of our players getting injured is much more important than how a potential FA may feel about our team. And this doesn't even include the fact that unless we grab a major player in FA(JJ/Bosh type), we're not likely to even spend our MLE given our rotation depth.
I agree with everything you said, with the caveat that the bolded part is not true from a different angle. Given how much real playing time has the potential to improve Jordan Hill's game, I feel like this remaining 10 games, many against quality opponents, is a huge opportunity for him. If the coaching staff can make the most of these games for developing our rookies, putting them in learning situations, up against better players, etc. than this could be a HUGE jump start to next season and the seasons after that. It's up to the coaches and players to capitalize on this no-risk opportunity to experiment and gain experience.
Charles Barkley did it when he was still considered one of the best Power Forwards in the game. He took a huge pay cut in order to help bring Scottie Pippen to Houston.
Good point on Barkley. After Barkley, the Rockets haven't signed any free agent stars, just solid players and scrubs. The Rockets were lucky to pick up Steve Francis, because Vancouver was dumb enough to draft him and ignore his pre-draft demands. Rockets were lucky to draft Yao Ming in the lottery. Young stars, like Yao Ming, had done a more effective job of recruiting T-Mac in a trade than winning 3-4 extra games each season to get Bonzi Wells and Padgett. If the Rockets get their target player without getting Pritch-slapped, then the Rockets could be a very attractive team in 2012 for free agents or players who demand trades.
I don't really think Bima was thinking stars when he made his comment. I think he was thinking more along the lines of a substantial role player that could make a significant contribution possibly coming off of the bench in limited minutes. My thought was Marcus Camby. With Yao back next season he would certainly come off of the bench and probably not play more than 15 minutes a game. But he is still one of the better rebounding defensive centers in the game and would absolutely fill the role vacated by Deke last season. A lot of teams would place a high value on that but most can not offer more than the MLE. If NOH and HOU both offer Camby the same money and similar roles on the team what would be the deciding factor on which team he would choose? Although I am not assuming Bima was thinking specifically of Camby in his post I do think this is the scenario he was thinking of. I think Bima is implying that he or most free agents in this scenario would choose the team that they feel would give them the best opportunity to close out their career with on a winner. I happen to think that there is merit to this theory. Having said that there are certainly other factors as well such as where a player is from. I would also like to add that I don't think the Rockets will draft at 12, 13 or 14 spots regardless of their final record. I think they have plenty of amo to move up (a lot) in the draft or possibly even make a trade for a star like Bosh or Amare. Houston is really in a very good position to draft a player for another team and then trade him away with a 2011 and 2012 first round draft pick (both potential lottery picks) for a substantial talent. I think this is what DM's plan will be this draft season.
Would hope the goal of team now is develop the youngsters for rest of season and rest Scola ect. The other goal should be to catch the Hornets and Bulls in the tank column. Period. Hope Adelman doesn't pull a JVG on us.
There are more teams with the MLE than the Rockets and Hornets. If he is getting offered only the MLE by teams, he would be more likely to sign with the Mavericks for the MLE than the Rockets for winning 2 more games than the Hornets. If the Rockets are able to get a projected star on their draft board, then it could be an incentive for free agents to sign with the Rockets. Morey projects the 2011 draft class to be weaker and I am sure many other GMs feel the same way. It's all about the labor issues. The projected top picks in the 2011 draft may actually declare early to get in the 2010 draft to avoid a lockout or strike, after the disaster of 1998-99 shortened season. It makes a lower draft pick in 2010 worth more than a 2011 draft. It could be another repeat of the weak 2000 draft class with Kenyon Martin and Magloire being all-stars. It's easier to move up 2 spots than 4 spots. If there is a player that drops within their range, then there would be 3-4 teams that could draft ahead of them. If you knock out half your competition, it's better. If you believe that those teams have no need for that pick but will trade it. It's still better. You eliminate 2 trade partners. Pritchard traded up to leap frog over the Rockets. He somehow knew the Rockets had a deal with the Tmberwolves. If the Rockets were 2 positions higher, then they would have eliminated that from happening. None of the other teams drafting higher than Minnesota traded down.
I certainly was not intending for you to think that this was just a contest between HOU and NOH to sign free agents. NOH was just my example. I think you mike Bima's point with your assumption that a player would pick Dallas just because of their record. Evan if we had been two spots further up in the draft when Portland traded for Roy, there is a chance that they still would have managed to leap frog us. We can make assumptions all day long but at the end of the day assumptions are all we have. What we do know is that Portland wanted Roy very badly and had the amo to go and get him. This year we have the amo. In 2001 we moved all the way from 13 in the draft to 7 by trading 3 picks, a very late lottery pick a mid 1st and late 1st round pick. This year we could trade what would possibly be three lottery picks to move up in the draft if that is what Morey wanted to do. IMO a week draft in 2011 makes a 2011 lottery pick that much more valuable because there will not be a lot of talent late in the draft.
None of the other teams ahead of Minnesota traded down. I would say they weren't willing trade with Portland. By picking higher, it would have made it much more difficult to leap frog us at 6. There would be only 5 trading partners. It was highly unlikely that Toronto, Charlotte, and Chicago would trade away a top 3 pick. Portland had the 4th pick, but went after Tyrus Thomas instead of Roy. It would leave them trading with only Atlanta at 5. The higher you are the better for a trade. If the Rockets are counting on trading from 14th to 7th, the trade would only go through if the team drafting 7th believe's it's pick is available at 14th and that 6 other teams won't pick him. If it was a trade for 7th to 11th. The number of teams drops 50% to only 3 that could draft their target. 3 draft positions have doubled our odds of completing a move up to the 7th spot. from 11th/14th.
At this point I don't think it matters if we push for the Play-Offs or not. Opponents know the Rockets are injury ridden and need a few more high caliber players to compete. Regardless Adelman doesn't like losing and neither do any of the Rockets. They will try to push no matter who's out there.
crash, you got the point of my earlier post almost exactly. Thanks for reiterating it. I did have free agents like Camby in mind. Obviously, anyone thinking that I was referring to getting a near All-Star in his prime is just deluding himself. Part of my point that I don't think I emphasized enough was about the MENTALITY of the players. Once a culture of losing penetrates a team, it reflects poorly around the rest of the league. By "culture of losing", I don't mean losing games because you are out-manned or because you simply don't have as much talent as your opponent. I'm talking about a culture where "it's okay to lose" or where losses don't bother players. Now, guys like Luis Scola and Shane Battier would never allow this to happen. But that's the sort of thing that could make free agents (especially veterans) not want to come to a team, money being equal. crash, the one point from your post that I will slightly vary from is regarding Morey's draft strategy. While I agree that the Rockets have the assets to move up in the draft, don't be surprised, if they decide not to/cannot move up and the player(s) Morey likes in that range are not available, if the Rockets move DOWN in, or even OUT of, the first round. Remember, the Rockets don't NEED any more youth on this roster. If they ended up trading out of the draft (perhaps for a good role player and/or future picks), it would not be some sort of tragedy. Also, the concept of drafting "for another team" is not necessarily something that I see happening, unless it relates to a swap of 2010 first round picks. From everything we've heard from Morey, the Rockets #1 priority this off-season is making a play for a Chris Bosh sign-and-trade. Since the Rockets can't even talk to Bosh until July 1, any player taken could not be taken "for" the Raptors. Morey would have to draft the best player available and then hope that both Bosh and Toronto agree to a sign-and-trade that may or may not involve that player. Maybe this would work for an Amare trade (assuming that Amare has already elected not to opt out of his contract AND is willing to sign an extension with the Rockets).
Two words Ekpe Udoh. Dood would look sweet in a Rockets uniform and is exactly the type of player I hope Morey drafts. Big time Shotblocker and very good all around floor game.
I tend to agree with you here. I certainly think DM will explore moving up in the draft but it just depends on how far up he can get and of course if the player he really wants is still there. Morey has proven 2 things to me when it comes to draft day. First is that he usually takes the best player available regardless of the Rockets need. Using that logic, if he is not able to trade up and grab a player he really wants then he might just sit tight and takes who ever falls to him regardless of position. Second is that Morey never does what I expect so using that logic ignore first thing I think he has proven. :grin: I absolutely agree with you on Morey's preference. I believe Bosh is target number one. I just don't know how he intends to make that happen vs. what he intends to do on draft day. I would think the two would have to be related but if DM has an opportunity to move up in the draft by using multiple picks then he would have to be certain of a couple of things. Would what he is trading for be something the Raptors would value as part of a sign and trade for Bosh? If they do draft someone in the 1st round they would need to be certain it is a player they want in the event the Raptors do not want him in a sign and trade. Could the Rockets move up to grab a player they covet in the draft and still have enough pieces left to keep that player and still get Bosh in a sign and trade from the Raptors? What ever happens I am looking forward to see how DM handles this years draft. I believe DM has the Midas touch and the player we acquire will turn into gold.
I agree. I wasn't really clear. I was saying that it's meaningless in terms of FA sexiness. Of course it's still good for developing guys like Hill, CBud, and now Taylor. And it's great that Adelman's playing them a lot. Indeed. NBA teams just never rebound from a culture of losing towards the end of the season. Having one bad season admist a long run of good seasons will kill players' heart and souls. Signed, Spoiler And of course, when that losing REALLY gets long, say consecutive bottom feeder status, you know the organization just can't overcome that. Signed, Spoiler Spoiler
He's only made 7 out of about 27 or 28 shots, all season. Bricking 20 shots isn' shooting it. It's building a house.
