I want the gadfly gone as much as anyone, but Libya may end up as ungovernable as Afghanistan after this is over. Once the government falls, retribution might be bloodier than anyone can imagine. There is no happy ending. The "victors" could actually be worse. Maybe no more Libya?
One of those jet fighters who gets the order to fire on protesters should just take out the president's palace...or tent...or whatever.
I don't think Libya is densely populated enough. There is a whole lot of land, but it is a pretty small country. The entire country has like 2x the population of Harris County.
If the Libyan military keeps firing on its own people... ...should the West take out Libya's military?
Certainly - he's a crazy dude and who knows what to expect. I actually think if the West had a good excuse to intervene, that would be the best way to quickly resolve the situation. But as long as it stays in their borders, intervention from the West would cause all sorts of bigger problems in the long run (accusations of puppet governments, resentment, etc).
I know but how does that affect how governable the country is? The fact remains there won't be much glue holding it together after you-know-who is gone. Pretty bleak outlook IMO even if it doesn't affect so many people. ATW: No USA troops, that's for sure. Maybe the French.
In places like Afghanistan or Yemen, there are alternate "groups" in the form of very strong tribal identities to fill the void as political entities. It doesn't work like that in Libya. Also, Libya is about as isolated as possible thanks to the Great Sand Sea so they are pretty limited in who they are able to partner with. Also, Libya as a country has a long standing history as Tripoli. Afghanistan was made up by the British 150 years ago out of thin air. It will break up into Afghanistan about as readily as Tunisia did.
Malta is a member of the EU so the EU would intervene to defend Malta if it was attacked. Other than sheer craziness, something that can't be ruled out, I I doubt Gaddafi would attack Malta. The bigger problem for Malta is refugees.
Just read the Wikipedia article about Libya, to educate myself. I was totally unaware of this part of its history. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libya
I have been hearing some analyst say that there is a historical rivalry between Benghazi in the east and Tripoli in the West and that it is possible that Libya could fraction along those lines. Also there are still some strong tribes that Gaddafi has worked with to keep his rule.
On Dec 17, 2010, a Tunisian street vendor was accosted by an officer and he immolated himself in protest of the confiscation of his wares and the harassment and humiliation. As a result, concessions have also been made in Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Libya, and Yemen with the most significant taking place on February 11, 2011, when Hosni Mubarak resigned, ending his 30-year reign as the president of Egypt. Today, Libya's Gaddafi has used the air force to unsuccessfully quell the uprising. The flames of revolution were lit by Mohamed Bouazizi, and the Arab world will never be the same.
Libya's a relatively wealthy country, as far as African countries go. So hopefully they have a bit more stability in that regard and don't have the big exodus of people that you see from poorer nations. Oil wealth should also help a new government get the support of the people, you'd hope.
Libya is also tribal which is why I question how/if the vacuum will be filled. But I exaggerated comparing it with Afghanistan, too much.
Hopefully. But right now, of course, the wealth is very unevenly distributed...Gaddhafi and his gang are filthy rich, and there is also a lot of poverty. Gaddhafi's sons have gotten in trouble in Europe several times already.
