BBC International was talking last night about uprisings in all of these countries. No real details, but rumors of protests stemming from the Egyptian protests.
I would like to see a secular democracy where everyone gets a chance to get legitimately voted into the government by the will of the people of Egypt. But it doesn't matter what I want. Having said that, there is basically no chance that the Muslim Brotherhood become anything more than a minor fringe player given free elections. Similar to the NDP party in Germany, if even that. Btw your question is extremely loaded. A "strongER" influence can mean anything as they are currently an illegal party in Egypt. So even if the ban is removed, that can be considered "stronger".
Plan To Replace Hosni Mubarak May Be In The Works Two of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's closest allies, his new vice president, Omar Suleiman, and his defense minister, Hussein Tantawi, are quietly working on a plan under which Mubarak would step down from power, according to a U.S. scholar who has been staying in regular touch with the Egyptian political and military leadership. "They want to be sure that Mubarak is going to cooperate," said Stephen P. Cohen, president of the Institute for Middle East Peace and Development and a longtime confidant of Egyptian and Israeli leaders. The two-part plan, according to Cohen, would involve the immediate removal of 100 members of the Egyptian Parliament whose election this past fall was seen as illegitimate. They would be replaced by 100 candidates who were barred from running in the election or who were defeated because of government meddling in the election process. A second possible step would be the organization of new parliamentary and presidential elections. The plan, according to Cohen, "requires [Mubarak] to give up his office." Asked whether Mubarak would do that, Cohen answered, "He is getting ready to do so."
That's always an issue in such scenarios. People at the top of the regimes can leave relatively easily and likely have assets overseas to start a new life in exile. The same probably goes with any relatively wealthy supporters of the regime. I am not sure the foot soldiers ot the security apparatus has the option of leaving a "New Egypt" in which they don't have power and would not be well-liked, to say the least. So, they would seem to be those with the most incentive to put up a fight right now.
This bears close watching. I’ve been doing a little reading on this Omar Suleiman cat and as long as he is facilitating the compromise and not leveraging himself to become the next president, then I think it might be okay. Still Suleiman was the Egyptian point man with the CIA during the Iraq war in regards to the criminal renditions who did the dirty work for the US (“we don’t torture”, but the Egyptian intelligence service sure does).
Agreed. Coincidentally, wikileaks revealed just yesterday that Egypt was the "destination of choice" for US foreign extradition operations, i.e., they did a lot of torturing for the USA. America, **** yeah!
And if they vote in a group that wants everything to be like in Afghanistan under the Taliban, you are fine with that? They are called NPD...they got like 1.5 % or so of the vote in the federal elections (which is terrible enough). Do you think the Muslim Brotherhood would only get 1.5 % of the vote in Egypt? If that is actually so, that would be good news.
I think Egypt is wrapping up quite nicely---one can't help wonder who next though? The French daily Liberation seems oddly prescient putting Mubarak next to Ben-Ali. A qui le tour? Who is next?
As I said, it won't be enough. If you're not watching, Mubarak said he won't run and he will order the necessary reforms in transition. The Egyptian response: Leave, leave.
I don't care if they freely and fairly vote in someone who opresses them and doesn't cause harm to other people and countries. That's a very paranoid and irrational way to think about it though, no country has ever freely voted that kind of regime in place. I don't know frankly, but as the article and everyone else has stated, the military wouldn't allow it to happen and it's obvious that the military will be the "king makers" in this whole thing. I think given a full set of options, they are unlikely to have any influential role in government, other than perhaps a symbolic one which shows that even Islamic parties are welcome if they play by the rules of the new constitution.
I think leaving Mubarak in power until elections in September is actually the best thing for Egypt. It'll make for an orderly transition of power. On the reverse, staying in power could allow him to funnel power to his favorite options.
It was actually a very threatening and obnoxious speech. - I will die on this soil: I'm not going anywhere. - I shouldered the burden: you should thank me. - I never wanted the power: you are lucky to have me. - I never intended to run: your protest is not the reason I won't run. - Chaos caused by external political forces: you are being played like idiots by the brotherhood. Altogether a poor speech, even for what he was trying to say. Guess what Obama is going to say?
I agree. It could potentially be good, but there is no faith in Mubarak - and rightfully so IMO. You would have to be insane to trust Mubarak to do this given 30 years of evidence to the contrary.
My guess is the US government will say "We are happy to see any actual peaceful transition to an honest election. We urge everyone in Egypt to work toward that goal. However, it's still up to the Egyptian people and not up to us." Privately, I think the US will urge some participation of opposition figures even during the interim period to ease the transition (and to keep current regime honest). It appears that Mubarak is trying to make a distinction between himself and the "disgraced exiled rulers" crowd even while giving up power. His positive self image seems important to him.
He'd better be careful what he wishes for. I'm sure there are people who would be happy to arrange that for him. Very little I sure. This isn't about Obama it's about the people of Egypt.
