My problem is that the Egyptians want Mubarak out, but I have utterly no clue what they want in. And it is these exact scenarios that a revolution can be hijacked by a small but determined and organized group, like the Bolsheviks in Russia. Better then the devil you know then the one you don't, and while it may sound callous, there ARE people much worse then Mubarak who could end up running things, both for us and the people of Egypt. That is what we have to be cautious about.
That's what we should've been cautious about 15 years ago. Today, we've given that option up. If you knew who they wanted in RIGHT NOW at this point in time given historical events in Egypt, then it wouldn't be a real democracy anyway. If they choose someone now, he will either become a US puppet immediately or politically murdered by Mubarak. They don't know who they want. They want to choose from the people who come forward once they are allowed to come forward in a transparent and process-driven way. That can only happen once the necessary tweaks are made to the constitution and supplementary governance structures. Those can only be made adequately and independently once Mubarak is gone. I have the same questions you have. I also don't want to see an extremist or non-secular leader. But it's not our country, and we don't know if that's what they want. There's no risk of there being a power grab during a power vacuum. The military is well equipped and fully aware of what Egypt has to do to not face international pressure. The military is extremely unlikely to support the brotherhood, or to accept going to war versus Israel rather than receive 1-2bn dollars a year from the US. Mubarak out. Transitional government in. Tweaks made. Candidates rise. People choose. Best case scenario, Baradei handles transition, and does not put himself forward for presidency later.
I doubt any Egyptian would go for that, though I personally can see it working with a lot of tweaks. In reality though, these people won't stay if not in power. They would be murdered within days. Nevermind that they would be expected to stand trial once the constitutional reforms are completed. These are criminals we're talking about. I'm not sure how you can expect them to run for government positions given that they will be arrested for crimes immediately after Mubarak flees?
I think you’re being too cynical, and I also think you’re taking too much of an all-or-nothing approach. Obama can’t change everything that’s wrong with the US all at once. If he tried to do it all at once he’d crash and burn, and then nothing would get done. Every leader has to pick his battles. I think what's most important is the overall direction the Obama administration is headed in.
Meh. There are lunatics like this in America. There are even a handful of people who think Mubarak is a good person. Not sure what you're trying to get at, but this reminds me of the reaction to the attacks on Coptic Christians in Egypt. Everyone was all: they're terrorists, the Muslims are trying to murder the Christians. Until the Muslims actually protected the Christians and the people realized that, although there are islamist terrorists in Egypt, that doesn't mean all non-Christian Egyptians are islamist terrorists. In the same way, many will try to overplay the "EGYPT IS GOING TO ATTACK ISRAEL" card. Not going to happen. It hasn't really happened in decades and none of them surrounding countries (except Jordan) even have peace treaties. If anything, it's recently become quite clear that Arabs are more worried about Iran than Israel. I think you'd be surprised at just how sick Egyptians are of Al Azhar and Mubarak. The youth are only thinking about developing their own country, and it's the youth that are driving this change.
Guys, Pray for my homeland. Tomorrow could be a bloodbath, as there are numerous rumors (some backed by evidence apparently) that the criminal thugs in the Mubarak regime have concocted a new plan that they will implement tomorrow. For those not aware, protesters are organizing what promises to be the biggest demonstrations as of yet, most likely in front of the presidential palace. For those who are also not aware, the military came out today and made it official: they acknowledged the "legitimate" calls by the people and they promised to protect peaceful protesters and promised to NEVER fire on their people. Unfortunately for them, there are apparently plans by the secret regime police/thugs to distribute weapons to common thugs and drug dealers and their militias and order them to infiltrate the crowds, at which point they would fire on the military soldiers with the goal being that the soldiers would fire back into the crowds and massacre people en mass. So please be aware of these sinister regime plans in case tomorrow turns into a mass massacre with the military being unwitting participants in a regime that is intent on a scorch earth policy before they ever let go of power. I guess Joe Biden was right: the Mubarak regime and his thugs are not people "I would call a dictator"
Not in the least. It's called predicting future behaviour based on past behaviour. And if you believe that Bush invaded Iraq to bring freedom to the people then you're being naive in the extreme. Why didn't he bring freedom to Saudi Arabia, or Egypt for that matter? Why did he lie about the WMD? In order to believe that you'd have deny what is common knowledge at this point and suspend all rational thought. Do you have anything at all to back any of this up? Didn't think so. Same as above.
I'm not ignoring the gravity of the situation for Egyptians and I think Mubarak should go too. I think you are also reading more in my statements. They shouldn't though but what I don't get is why are you laying all of this on Obama? You, and many Egyptians, seem to be holding Obama responsible for Mubarak. I find that rather troubling for a few reasons. One it is unfair to Obama in specific and the US in general. Yes we shouldn't have been supporting Mubarak that much previously but at the moment we aren't intervening to keep Mubarak in office. At the sametime given past criticism regarding US interference in the affairs of other countries why would intervention, rhetorical or otherwise, now be better? Also this attitude that the US is responsible is a sign of a lack of faith on the part of Egyptians to make change themselves. By getting upset that because Obama hasn't forcefully said Mubarak must means Mubarak is staying would mean that the US that has final control over Egypt and not Egyptians. That is basically adopting a colonized attitude. It is up to Egyptians to remove Mubarak. If there is a subtext to Obama's comments that is it. The US isn't going to remove him for them.
Pharoh King, Your beautiful country is in our prayers, and God forbid that something this terrible would happen to your country. Well wishes all the way from America!
Just wondering but does Mubarak have a political party and something like Basiji in Iran? Paramilitary thugs who have a quasi official status. Also what control does Mubarak have other the army? Would it be possible that the Army would root out Mubarak's militia?
Yeah, they're called the Central Security Forces, about 325,000 strong. He also has key backers in the National Guard as well as in the military who rely on his cronyism but are willing to let him fall for the right price. Not sure how many though. The Army is barely larger than the CSF so not sure how that works with them rooting the other out.
Well, the leader wouldn’t have to be in Egypt, and even if there was no leader there could be some clearly stated objectives for the movement. One of the big problems with there being no objective, other than the removal of Mubarak, is that there’s nothing for other people or countries to support. What does the movement stand for? I think it’s pretty clear that Mubarak’s days are numbered, and the question on the table now is, what comes next? If the protestors don’t have an answer for that question then I think it’s likely that the army will just appoint someone of its choice, not the protestors’. It’s not a good strategy, but it may just be where the movement is at this point, and it may be workable in the end as well. It may well be that the movement doesn’t know what it wants at this point, other than that it wants Mubarak out. BUT, the people have clearly become empowered by this. If some acceptable interim leader can be found now, then stage II can be a period where the people of Egypt begin to reflect and do some deeper thinking about what they want their next government to be. There are going to be different points of view, of course. Maybe the interim government could promise true elections in a couple of years, and in the meantime Egyptians could form political parties, and have debates, and essentially start the process of democracy.
Will pray for your country. If these rumors are true, the military is also aware of them. Though you never know in these kinds of situations, the military may surprise you.
I have a number of Egyptian friends that I went to school with, and l like them very much and I hope and pray for the best for their families and for Egypt. I certainly hope and pray for peace tomorrow, Insha'Allah.
They could be aware of it, but it won't matter much to the soldier on the ground whose natural reaction to being fired on is, of course, to fire back! That's what I am worried about, not whether or not the higher ups in the military know this or not. From the US point of view, it would look terrible if advanced M1 tanks fire on protesters. Obviously, the US has been thus far insistent on the regime holding its fire against the protesters. But a desperate regime may seek desperate measures and screw consequences.
Thanks brother, the people of Egypt can use all of the outside help (or at least prayers) they can get.
I won't pray, being essentially agnostic, but I've retained a real interest in Egypt after spending a couple of weeks there in the 1960's. It doesn't hurt that one of my son's best friends is the son of Egyptian immigrants, who has many relatives there that he and his family are understandably very concerned about. My great hope is that further violence subsides and there is a peaceful change of government following Mubarak and his family "retiring" to Saudi Arabia, London, Paris, or somewhere in Switzerland, as long as they are out of the country, with a caretaker government running things until free and fair elections occur.
i don't have any relatives in Egypt, nor do i know anyone who's visited recently, and most of the people in my neighborhood wouldn't understand the difference between a Sputnik moment and the Suez crisis... ...and I don't pray. i wish you, yours and the people of Egypt safety, and ultimately, the freedom to choose your own form of government. in such freedom lies liberty, justice, and security for us all.
