To sum it up, this trade would make the Astros worse, not better. How would exchanging Elarton (ERA = 7+) for Leiter (ERA = 3.5 or so) and losing D. Ward (who gets, at best, about 1 at-bat every game or two right now) make this team worse? Seems to me it would depend on the prospects involved, but really what positions do we have for prospects in the next few years? 1B, 2B, C, LF, CF, and 3 (4 if Elarton stays) starting pitching spots are filled. If we resign Alou, that leaves 3B and SS to be replaced. Lugo is actually far better than the average SS, so that's not a major concern. That leaves *1* spot (2 if you include Alou's spot) open in our starting line up for next year. I think we can afford to give up some prospects here. ------------------ http://www.swirve.com ... more fun than a barrel full of monkeys and midgets.
"Next year, if the Astros resign Alou, they might be ready." "There is no need to burn the farm to win now. We need to be patient with what we have and let the youngsters grow." Good god, what is wrong with you people? Carpe f***ing diem! The White Sox last year figured they would be competitive for years to come with their young lineup. Ditto for the A's. Seattle had no idea they would be where they are today. The Stros were on top 2 years ago, bottomed out last year, and are good again this time. Who's to say what next year will bring? Alou may bolt; in fact I'd put good money on the team not re-signing him as long as it has a cheaper option like Ward available. One or more of our young pitchers might regress. Guys like Biggio and Bagwell and Reynolds aren't getting any younger. Seize the brass ring when it is out there, my friends. You never know what's going to happen in the future. It's the chances that you don't take that you end up regretting the most. ------------------ I'm so amazingly cool you could keep a side of meat in me for a month. I am so hip that I have difficulty seeing over my pelvis.
We may be overestimating the importance of adding another starter. Especially with McKnight and Brian Powell ready at AAA. Remember that in the playoffs most teams go with a 3 or 4 man rotation: Miller Oswalt Reynolds Redding ...looks fine to me. Also, Villone and Mlicki have both pitched well enough recently to deserve a start. What do ya'll think? If we are desperate for another starter we could probably get Pedro Astacio for about half the cost of Leiter (e.g. sans Ward). ------------------ "Oh No..." -Bill Walton in 97 just before Stockton's buzzer beater
Shanna...if Alou was signed, this trade would be alot easier to stomach. If the Astros made this trade and then lost Alou over the winter, it would take them quite a while to recover. The potential downside for the Astros reagarding Ward for Leiter is greater than the potential upside. I'd rather see them go after Astacio, or just demote Elarton to AAA and call up another young pitcher. ------------------ "Blues is a Healer" --John Lee Hooker
I'm with you...carpe diem!! Rarely in the history of this organization have the Astros found themselves in the position they're in right now. haven -- great...so don't make the trade because you think the mariners and yankees are better...and you think NL teams are just as good. hey..i think you make the trade if you think it gives you a better chance of winning the NL and getting to the World Series. Once you're in the World Series, you have a very good chance of winning the Series. But saying we shouldn't make the trade because we may not beat the Mariners in the World Series is ridiculous. This franchise has never won a playoff series before!!! Getting to the World Series would be HUGE!! Particularly given the fact that Leiter and the young rotation would return. If you think that we're as good as any other team in the NL, then we already have a better chance to win the Series than we have in franchise history. I thought Leiter had pitched well as of late. I have him on my fantasy team. He's been disappointing early on...but lately has pitched really well...at least that's what I seem to recall. Are you sure he's lost 3 of his last 4??? But again..his ERA is around 3.90...Elarton's is pushing 7. Elarton is either damaged goods or he needs more time in the minors. What he does not need to do is lose his confidence because his poor pitching negatively affects the chances of his team to win in the midst of a pennant chase. Ward isn't in this lineup because he has better players in front of him. I'm not sure that's gonna change anytime soon. And I'm not sure he's a good enough outfielder to play 145 games or so next year, anyway. Ward's trade value isn't near as high as many of you seem to think. If we re-sign Alou, Ward is once again a player with no place to play. If we don't resign Alou, I'm still pretty unconvinced he's a suitable starter in the outfield. I also think if we don't re-sign Alou and if Ward isn't there, you wouldn't have a very hard time finding a replacement who would love to hit at Enron Field. Attracting hitters won't be a problem for this franchise. Trading any bench player for a pitcher of Leiter's ilk is a no brainer in my book...this is a league long on hitting and short on pitching. I think that these situations, where you find yourself among the very best in the league, come around pretty rarely. In the Astros 40 year history, they've been to the playoffs 5 times! Of those years, maybe 3 times were they real contenders for the NL crown. It appears one of those situations is coming to pass now....not taking full advantage of it would be a missed opportunity in my opinion. ------------------ [This message has been edited by MadMax (edited July 17, 2001).]
Since when has Lugo been far better than the average shorstop? He's got no range, he has no arm, and by watching him on the basepaths he may have no brain. He strikes out like Reggie Jackson and apparently he's got Gerald Young disease because he thinks he's a home run hitter. Other than that he's definitely top notch. Baseball isn't about seizing the day, it's about building an organization that competes day in and day out, every year. Personally I'd rather have a decade of success than one shot at a World Series that will cost you down the road. Also, getting Leiter in no way guarantees you anything except that you'll miss out on 10 years of Daryle Ward. ------------------ First the Sopranos and now Eddie Griffin... thank you New Jersey!
Well if you think that position is having a shot at the playoffs, then you're wrong. This team has been to the playoffs 3 times in the last 4 years. They pulled their blockbuster trade and it didn't work out. If you think that position is having an abundance of very talented young players, then you're absolutely right. I've never seen an Astros team with as many bright young star caliber players as they do now. I'm excited for the future. ------------------ First the Sopranos and now Eddie Griffin... thank you New Jersey!
I would definitely trade Ward for Leiter straight up, but I wouldn't throw in anyone else like Redding or Elarton. Ward should be enough for Leiter. No way would I involve Redding or any other stud prospects in a deal. ------------------ Who needs teachers? I can learn my own self.
I'd trade Ward for Leiter. Ward has no position on this team - he won't be playing first base, and the fact that he's a natural first baseman makes him a liability in the outfield. Yes, he can hit a ton, but the Astros system has several players who can swing the lumber - what we could use is a guy like Lieter with serious postseason experience. There are no dominant teams in the NL right now, this is the perfect opportunity for a team like the Astros to get hot and they could make a serious run in the post-season. A guy like Lieter, with his vicious cut fastball could solidify our starting line-up with some veteran big-game experience. Of course if the Mets asked for one of our young arms, I'd tell them no way. ------------------ It was the time of the preacher, in the year of '01 Now the preachin' is over, and the lessons begun . . .
I'd go after Astacio. I'd give up Ward for Astacio or a quality lefty, but I'm not a big Leiter fan. I would never give up Elarton in any trade. The guy has proven he can win big games at this level. That's a hot commodity. And we can get a lot for him. ------------------ humble, but hungry.
Since when has Lugo been far better than the average shorstop? He's got no range, he has no arm, and by watching him on the basepaths he may have no brain. He strikes out like Reggie Jackson and apparently he's got Gerald Young disease because he thinks he's a home run hitter. Other than that he's definitely top notch. All of Lugo's numbers are better than the average NL shortstop. Outside of the 3 freaks of nature (ARod, Jeter, Garciaparra), can you name an SS that's substantially better? His defense is average to above-average as well (this has improved over the past 2 months or so). Baseball isn't about seizing the day, it's about building an organization that competes day in and day out, every year. The Astros have built an organization -- they have one of the best records in baseball over the past decade, behind Atlanta and NYY. At some point, they have to take a chance to make that next leap. They did it in 1998 and it electrified this team and city. Unfortunately, it didn't work, but that's no reason to quit trying. Also, getting Leiter in no way guarantees you anything except that you'll miss out on 10 years of Daryle Ward. There are never any guarantees in baseball. Daryle Ward has *no place* to play on this team. He can't replace Bagwell for 4 years, and he proved early this season that his outfield play is subpar. His only value to this team is either as a pinch-hitter or trade bait. ------------------ http://www.swirve.com ... more fun than a barrel full of monkeys and midgets.
Are you guys kidding me?!?!?!?!?! If you can add Al Leiter to this team without having to give up a hot pitching prospect (Hernandez, Redding, Roddriguez), you do that deal 10 times out of 10 without even thinking about it! This is not basketball. You don't sit on your ass and not sign Antonio Davis because Francis and Mobley aren't ready. As has already been previously stated, this team has as good a chance as any in the National League. The Astros boast the toughest lineup and what is rounding out to be a deadly bullpen. Adding a gritty left-hander who is absolutely nails in the postseason would make this team the favorites in the NL, in my opinion. One dimensional power hitters are easily replaced. I think Elarton will turn it around, but the Astros have a wealth of young prospects who they can just plug in his place. Those of you who are worried about the future, I think we need to milk the Bagwell/Biggio/Reynolds era for all its worth. Add Al Leiter while Moises Alou is still around and make your push with this team. When Biggio and Alou move on, Burke and Jason Lane will move in, and Hernandez can take Leiter's spot as lefty in our rotation. Miller/Oswalt/Redding will have solidified themselves by then also. You have to seize this opportunity while Alou is still here.
One more point. Jason Lane has been absolutely awesome at AA Round Rock this season. .344 (tops in league), 29 homers (2nd in league), 92 RBI (tops in league). If there's an opening in the Astros outfield in a year or two, Lane should be able to fill that void as well or better than DW. ------------------ I'm so amazingly cool you could keep a side of meat in me for a month. I am so hip that I have difficulty seeing over my pelvis.
I think may of you feel remorse about the Big Unit deal. Even knowing how good Garcia is now, I STILL make that trade. Don't get me wrong, Garcia would look great in an Astro uni, but The Unit didn't cost us the Padre series, lack of clutch hitting did. This time around, I hope Bags and Biggio can hit above .200. Astacio is ok, but I'm not sure he's gonna be better then Elarton right now. He pitches well against us, but is he more then a #3 guy ? We've got enough of those. Leiter is definitely a 1 or 2. ------------------ "norm, would you like to buy an indian scalp ? This deal isn't gonna make or break me Norm, so don't jerk me around." Harry Carey "Norm, if I had a mohawk scalp, I wouldn't be sitting here talking to you." [This message has been edited by gr8-1 (edited July 17, 2001).]
Who is "the" average shortstop? Lugo's defense is in no way average to above average. Here is a list of players who are better than Lugo. Jeter A-Rod Garciaparra Jimmy Rollins Miguel Tejada Barry Larkin Ricky Gutierrez Rich Aurilia Benji Gil Christian Guzman Rey Sanchez Rafael Furcal Omar Vizquel Alex Gonzalez - FLA Edgar Renteria That's 15 players, half of the league's starting shortstops are clearly better than Julio Lugo. Obviously Lugo is average at best, forget about far better than the average shorstop. ------------------ First the Sopranos and now Eddie Griffin... thank you New Jersey!
That's 15 players, half of the league's starting shortstops are clearly better than Julio Lugo. Obviously Lugo is average at best, forget about far better than the average shorstop. Well, let's take a look at these guys in terms of OPS, which combined their on-base percentage and slugging. Juilio Lugo: 0.764 Jeter 0.801 A-Rod 1.008 Garciaparra - Has not played this year, but obviously better Jimmy Rollins 0.720 Miguel Tejada 0.806 Barry Larkin 0.745 Ricky Gutierrez 0.771 Rich Aurilia 0.941 Benji Gil 0.919 Christian Guzman 0.849 Rey Sanchez 0.649 Rafael Furcal 0.691 Omar Vizquel 0.665 Alex Gonzalez - FLA 0.729 Edgar Renteria 0.630 (batting 0.239) For reference, Lugo ranks far better than 7 of the 15 players mentioned. Assuming the other 15 are worse, then Lugo ranks 9th of 30 SS's. Lugo ranks 3nd in the NL in Shortstops, behind Aurilia and immediately behind Gutierrez. For reference, his offense this year is a bit worse than Derek Jeter. Yes, I'd say he's above average. For reference, see: http://www.astrosconnection.com/html/crunchtime.cfm It shows just how much more offense Lugo provides compared to the league. ------------------ http://www.swirve.com ... more fun than a barrel full of monkeys and midgets. [This message has been edited by shanna (edited July 17, 2001).] [This message has been edited by shanna (edited July 17, 2001).]
LOL Pulease. There is exactly nobody on that list that their respective team would trade straight up for Julio Lugo. Are you seriously telling me Lugo is better than Omar Vizquel because his OPS is higher this season? Anyone here willing to trade Barry Larkin for Lugo? How about Rafael Furcal for Lugo? Edgar Renteria for Lugo? That is obviously ridiculous and apparently you don't watch much baseball. ------------------ First the Sopranos and now Eddie Griffin... thank you New Jersey!
Very thought out thread by the posters! I didn't know there were this many Astros fans here who could back up their thoughts as evidenced above...with that being said, I would feel hesitant to pull the trigger on a deal with the players involved, mainly because of the uncertainty of having Alou next season, other than that I still find it difficult to let Ward go (although Elarton would not be missed .) and I can't get too excited about Al. ------------------ Rarely is the question asked: Guns kill squirrels than REDRUM to fools across the nation?
Larkin is over the hill. I agree with you that OPS isn't the only way to measure a player's ability. But, offensively, it's the best way. Take into account that Lugo has only been in the majors for a year also. ------------------ "norm, would you like to buy an indian scalp ? This deal isn't gonna make or break me Norm, so don't jerk me around." Harry Carey "Norm, if I had a mohawk scalp, I wouldn't be sitting here talking to you."
LOL Pulease. There is exactly nobody on that list that their respective team would trade straight up for Julio Lugo. Are you seriously telling me Lugo is better than Omar Vizquel because his OPS is higher this season? Anyone here willing to trade Barry Larkin for Lugo? How about Rafael Furcal for Lugo? Edgar Renteria for Lugo? That is obviously ridiculous and apparently you don't watch much baseball. Say what you want, but in the same number of games, Lugo will get you more hits and more power than any of those. You can go by reputation, I'll pick results. Lugo this season has been a well-above average shortstop. ------------------ http://www.swirve.com ... more fun than a barrel full of monkeys and midgets.
