Last Chance For Wild Card/Dark Horse Dem VP Prediction

Here's to getting it over with, so we can unite behind whoever the hell it turns out to be.





Impeach Bush/Cheney.

 

Today alone I have become convinced, at different times, that it was 'probably' Biden, Reed, Sebelius and Clinton.

Major props to the Obama campaign for keeping it under wraps this long and ratcheting up excitement.

Today is the first day during this entire process that I'd give a slight edge to Clinton. At this point I think she's the only candidate whose announcement would add momentum rather than losing it or leveling off.

I know he doesn't want her for VP, but if he does this I predict he'll be up by 15% by the end of the convention and won't trail or be tied again.

 

Two caveats to my post above.

1. I give a slight edge to Clinton only if Biden's "I'm not the guy" quote turns out to be true and he actually isn't the guy.

2. My prediction about the pick and resulting momentum is from the perspective of someone who is more prone to worry than Obama himself. Obama is the slow and steady. And he doesn't panic easy. He will only make this pick if he feels he has to and I kind of doubt he feels he has to do anything in particular right now. He probably likes his position right now better than any other Democrat in the country.

 

Batman, are you kidding wrt to Clinton?

I really do think that there is too much delay and that it becomes counter-productive. Picking one of the safe three does seems a bit of a let-down after all the hype.

Don't you think that waiting till Friday overplays the excitement aspect.

 

I'm not kidding. I think a Clinton pick has a lot of very, very real negatives. And I think there are even more problems for her as the actual VP than as the VP candidate. But I think there are some very real positives too. Especially given the sorry sore loser aspect of so many of her supporters as well as her spiteful husband.

I think it would be a shame if she was picked because it would be a case of rewarding the very bad behavior that led to the small but meaningful schism in the party. But ultimately I think she gains Obama more votes than she loses.

Ultimately, I hate the pick but I can't argue anymore with the cold logic of it.

As for whether waiting til Friday overplays the excitement aspect, I don't think so at all. Until he announces, barring some major unforeseen story, Obama owns the news cycle. And the media's not having any trouble coming up with rumors to feed it.

 

I hope you're right.

I don't think Kaine or Bayh is even in the running anymore.

And I kind of doubt Reed is exciting enough after all the hype, but I'm probably overestimating the importance of that.

I'd be happy with Reed though and very very happy with Sebelius. I'd be very happy with Clark too.

Then again, I'm having a really hard time believing Biden's actually out of the picture.

 

If its Clinton, after you eat your hat, digest it, and poop it out, I will eat the poop; that is how shocked I would be. My suprise level at Clinton would be just a notch below Obama anouncing Dick Cheney or the Pope as VP.

 

^I am totally holding you both to your promises here if Clinton's the one.

 

After all the hype, I don't think you can send emails and text messages to a bunch of people who's collective response would be "who?". I think that's what you'd get with Reed. I still think Biden/Sebelius are the top two options. I agree that Bayh's out. Kaine, you never know, but I don't think he's in it.

If it's not one of those four, it has to be a national name. If it was just emails, you could pick some random person and list out the rationale, biography, etc. With text messages, you've got to immediately excite them with just the name. That's Gore, Clinton and I guess Clark/Kerry/etc. But it would have to be someone nationally recognizable, I would think.

 

Tony Zinni!

Not a Washington insider, former Republican supporter, and no one has more cache in the middle east than that guy. Colin Powell included.

And as an aside, Tom Clancy's Battle Ready is a great read.

 

Maybe we should move this to the Hangout?

I am now officially rooting for Clinton as the VP nom.

 

I've been Biden from day one, it gives him everything he needs. andrea mitchell say's if fifty/fifty its him. they look great together. biden gives him that edge he needs with white working class. unlike hillary who made herself into a beer/and a shot candidate, this is biden's calling card, plus his foreign policy experience. and for all the criticism obama gets for being to cerebral biden is the straight shooter. its perfect, just do it

i wish he would have run for president in 04. really like this guy

 

You might be in luck, pgabriel. (You too, KingCheetah.)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/19/biden-source-downplays-vp_n_119964.html

Biden Source Downplays VP Denial
August 19, 2008 07:23 PM

How big a deal is today's veepstakes comment from Sen. Joe Biden that "I'm not the guy"?

A figure familiar with Biden's thinking says the remark is hardly consequential.

"That is a comment that he typically gives for people who ask about [the vice presidency]," the source said, adding that it has been the senator's stock answer to the question for weeks now.

In other words, let the speculation continue.

 

We've now entered The Twilight Zone, folks! Hell, even I don't think it will be Clinton.


I still think the announcement is tomorrow morning.




Impeach Bush/Cheney.

 

Nader argues for Clinton:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12652.html

Michael Moore (yikes) argues for my random suggestion last month, Caroline Kennedy:

http://www.michaelmoore.com/words/message/index.php?id=226

If only she had some legitimate political experience, she'd be the absolute perfect choice in my opinion.

 

He's apparently been giving the same answer for weeks - it just never got attention until today because of the fever-pitch speculation.