http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews1604.html Obama 51.6% McCain 42.0% Undecided 6.4% Pollster John Zogby: “Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan's victory over Carter -- but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton's 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans.”
Wasn't Zogby the last pollster to show the race as still being close as Obama was pulling ahead in other polls?
538 scares me about zogby. and i love john. but i just don't know about his polls. if we get new hampshire and virginia...its already over. thats why 59 seats (plus sanders) in the senate is so critical. ginsberg and stevens (souter?) could feel comfortable retiring immediately. and we could just push thru scotus nominees. and not even worry about republicans. plus lets be honest...even if we get only ~57 seats. the maine sisters, gordon smith (assuming he remains) and a couple of the other more moderate republican senators wouldn't vote let the party fillabuster on solid liberal nominees.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Gallup-Daily-Election-2008.aspx 52-41 on today's gallup as well. I call it the Bachmann effect
I don't expect many sweeping changes under an Obama presidency, other than a healthcare plan that will gut this patchwork of inefficiency, corruption and anarchy. But the promise of his presidency as reflected by his social insight and academic intellect excites me after 12 years of political cynicism and probably much much longer for other members on here. I look forward to the mandate he could possibly enjoy, and I will pay attention on how much he can do to inspire the American people and rally them to take on sacrifices that must be taken yet will be bitter to swallow in a recessionary to depressionary economy. I don't know how bitter or divided this nation will be after his victory. If there is some silver lining to these increasingly negative attack ads by the McCain campaign, it's that there's a cathartic legitimization of welled up feelings held by a sizable, yet mostly unspoken portion of our nation. I hope they can see the error of their views, but that just could be my own pride of hoping to be right about Sen. Barack Obama. It'll be all up to him, a little bit of luck, and his ability to see his principles through to confirm his supporters belief in him. This is all assuming he wins.
New Hampshire really doesn't matter. Virginia is important, but if PA goes red then it's not as important. The biggest issue right now is that the campaigns' internal polls are not matching these public polls. Lots of potential reasons -- Bradley effect, enthusiasm gap, individuals' willingness to participate in polls, weighting of polls by party, etc.
exactly, anyway, the key is the battleground states where leads are very thing. the encouraging thing is obama has a legit shot at florida, and virginia, and one of either ohio and pennsylvania.
AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D93VM4PO0&show_article=1 WASHINGTON (AP) - The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch. Is this thread another example of a premature BATMAN JONES-JACULATION?
if by poetic justice you mean that these groups like Swift boaters don't have the money to help mccain because of the last four years of voodoo economics created by the admin they helped put in, yes that is poetic justice
i dont get how it was able to "reach voters who were excluded from some other polls" also, obama supporters dont pick up numbers they dont recognize. just a well known fact...
If the unthinkable happens and McCain somehow wins, what will you guys blame it on? *Racism *Uneducated voters *Low voter turnout *Technical issues with voting machines/computers *Bad weather *All of the above
