I think they said they are using spin rate to identify potential cheaters and focus on which baseballs to analyze. But they would need actual proof to suspend anyone or take any kind of action like that. No way MLBPA would let them do anything based on circumstantial evidence.
They’ll probably treat it exactly like they treated “using technology to steal signs”. Stern warnings for first violation... major repercussion for repeat violations... but on a team level, not necessarily individual. If a team’s owner doesn’t want to pay exorbitant fines, be forced to fire GM’s, or be forced to give up draft picks... they’ll need to get their ship in order.
No spin rate isn’t alone isn’t going to get anyone suspended but I don’t think they have to physically catch someone in the act... they will analyze baseballs supposedly. I find it kind of disingenuous of baseball, they constantly allow cheating and then release a memo basically saying “we are going to enforce the rules”...
I'm not sure it's disingenuous - sports leagues put emphasis on certain rules all the time. It would be a problem if they just randomly started suspending people for it, but they are giving people fair warning before the season starts. It's similar to the Astros' cheating scandal - MLB sent memos to everyone saying they were going to enforce that stuff. The reason the Astros got in so much trouble is that did it all blantantly after that. NFL has done similar things in past years saying they were going to put a bigger emphasis on holding calls or personal fouls, etc without necessarily changing the rules themselves.
I get where you are coming from, but I have an issue with it because if they have the rule, it should be enforced or they shouldn't have the rule... deciding to crack down after the rule has been flaunted for so long is silly to me.
I like this blurb about McCullers from Fangraphs rotation write-up: “For McCullers, it comes down to health. The talent is there, and it is robust. His 3.61 SIERA is tied for 15th-best among the 116 pitchers with at least 500 innings since 2015. He misses bats at an above-average clip and can be remarkably difficult to square up, which helps counter his elevated walk rate.” So from that, I would say he’s a good #2 SP when healthy, but his injury history and playoff profile makes him more of a #3 who fits on a contender with good pitching depth. $85M for that kind of player certainly isn’t assuredly team-friendly, but it also doesn’t look like a ripoff.
Great season for Lance to build on, certainly living up to the extension so far. 162 innings is solid for him at this point in his career, keep in mind he’s just turning 28 tomorrow. If he can just stay healthy for a full season and give you 180 innings he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball. If he really builds up load and learns to be more efficient, you’re talking about someone who may flirt with a CY young one these years. Great for us Astros fans to watch him grow up pitching behind Keuchel, Verlander, Cole, Greinke he’ll has a chance to be grouped in with that bunch in he stays healthy.
So did he cost himself money by signing an extension before the season? I think he would have gotten a better contract now as a FA after showing he can have this type of production while being one of just a small group of pitchers to pitch enough innings to qualify for the ERA leaderboard.
Knowing the outcome of this season, probably a little. That doesn't mean he should have made a different decision or he will feel bad about the decision he made.
Exactly. He maybe cost himself a little money in FA by having this year AFTER signing his extension but I look at it as he appropriately priced in his risk profile into his extension. This is the first year he's pitched enough to qualify for the ERA title and that's kinda saying something. He's overall pitched like a solid middle of the rotation guy during his career and this year he looks like a good #2 guy. There will probably be years where he misses time or pitches more like a #3/4 guy. Still seems like a pretty appropriate extension all around.
He knew if he stayed healthy he could go out and do what he's done this year so that tells me he wanted to be here.
That he likes being here is probably part of it, but a bigger part is probably that he didn't think it was a sure thing he was going to stay healthy. I also don't think he left that much on the table based on just one single season.
Oh yes. Coming into the year, he was a 2 1/2 -pitch pitcher with his most effective weapon, his 85-89 Snap-dragon curveball, potentially ruined by the dreaded Tomas Juan. Most pitchers with a similar skillset regress massively and turn into shells of their former selves. Lance defied ALL expectations by learning a brand new pitch, a slider. But unlike most late-career pitching additions, this pitch was not only viable at a major league level, it turned into his best pitch. The result? He just logged in the best year of his career AFTER LOSING HIS BEST PITCH. Lance will receive top-3 Cy Young votes. 2nd in AL ERA, 1st in Hits/9, 1st in HR/9. 15-17M per year is a steal for a pitcher like that. Considering the likes of Patrick Corbin are getting paid 22 million per year for the next 3 years, so is Yu Darvish. Hell, Lance was better at preventing runs than the 330 million dollar man Gerrit Cole. You NEVER see a pitcher re-create himself like Lance did over the course of an offseason. Hats off to him. Off topic, but is Brent Strom the ultimate "short" pitcher whisperer? All 4 home-grown pitchers in our rotation are 6-1 and under, and built AF on top of that.
I think you can make an argument he was the third best qualified starter in the AL on a per inning. That's a lot of qualifiers though and he hasn't been in the Cy Young competition discussion most of the season. He's pitched 10% fewer innings than most of the guys that are and that's a big deal since he's 13th in WAR. 12th if you exclude Sho. Some of the guys ahead of him are just under the qualification limit, but had more WAR. You called out his best rate stats, but some of his others aren't that great. His BB/9 is the worst of all qualified pitchers, his WIP is middle of the pack, and his FIP is only 6th. He may get a third place vote, but I don't think he will be in most people's top 5. Lance was awesome this year, and no arguments on how awesome his comeback has been. However, I think you are focusing in on the stats that highlight his best areas and ignoring some other important ones where he's still good, but not tops in the league good.
Never said Lance is the best pitcher in the AL. But part of him not giving up hits comes with lots of walks. But I'll take effectively wild and 2nd in the AL in ERA over giving up a ton of bombs. Another reason to keep Carlos is that he's singlehandedly shaved about half an earned run off the average of Lance and Framber lmao. Plus, the Astros running a 6-man rotation hut Lance's inning count. Yet gave us the top starting pitching rotation in the AL despite lacking a JV-level ace.
Thats an astronaut with the WS trophy and the Houston skyline in the dripping paint. And of course the I-10 bridge.
I was mostly responding to the Cy Young consideration. I'm on board with you on Carlos. His defense is a big reason if you're going to do a big contract for anyone Carlos is one of those guys.
