If the idea is to limit McCullers's innings (or long outings) in 2025, the Astros could start him 2 a week for 2/3 innings on a pitch count. If McCullers starts every 5/6th day, he would be pitching about once a week AND a bully between starts, so he would be full blown on the mound twice a week, as a starter. Instead of one start and one bully per week, the Astros could have McCullers essentially pitch two bullies per week. On average, McCullers would be pitching 4-ish innings per week versus 6+ innings per week, I am not pitching coach or a medical doctor, but I strongly suspect starters the third time through the lineup are exhausted, their mechanics start to break down and increase their risk of injury. We have have to admit that whatever McCullers has previously done has made him injury prone. Having McCullers repeat the same-o same-o might very well lead to another injury.
It’s fine for him to believe in himself and say “I expect to fully recover and be able to stay healthy and give consistent quality starter innings”, but if the team asks him to go to the pen, he needs to embrace it.
I agree. He's going to have to go to the pen..I get he won't like it but it ses like the only option for him to continue his career
That's harsh. It's not his fault he got hurt. I don't like how he's handling the situation but I get the frustration.
For those of us looking to get our heart broken again: https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/lance-mccullers-jr-talks-injury-recovery-in-spring-training Lance says his velo is where it was at his peak (he was throwing ~90 in Feb of 2021). Expects to get into a couple games in late spring then break with AAA. By that timeline barring a setback he would be with the Astros around May 1st. I thought this quote was insane: ““I was expecting a minor flexor repair, and what I had was a flexor replacement,” McCullers said. “My flexor was off the bone, so they had to drill more holes, do an internal brace, bring my flexor back through my bone, and when I woke up from surgery, the prognosis on time was 15-plus months.” HOW WAS THAT NEWS NOT RELEASED LAST YEAR?!?!?! All season it was “he will be back any day now…”. Wtf.
This is the same organization that brought you Kyle Tuckers "bruised shin" and multiple "slept on it wrongs" I find their soviet like injury reporting to be utterly confounding, but its been consistent. We hear "not a setback" all the time, and then once the player actually returns we retroactively get an account of what really happened.
Is there any evidence that being a relief pitcher causes fewer injuries and is easier on a pitcher than being a starter? I vaguely remember John Smoltz saying the opposite. If he is healthy I’d much rather have him starting, which is basically the only thing he’s ever done in his pitching career, than try to convert him to a reliever for seemingly no reason.
It’s not for no reason. When (not if) McCullers gets hurt again, the Astros lose 18-20% of their starting rotation. They would be forced, on short notice to pull up Gusto or Gordon or Blubaugh from the minors. We’ve seen that before. McCullers in the pen limits the damage done by his inevitable loss. If he gets hurt while serving as the 7th inning arm, instead of a rookie in the rotation, they just bump the other RP up and find a new 13th pitcher. This isn’t about what’s better for McCullers. It’s about what is best for the Astros.
That is not exactly what happened. Lance was on the Foul Territory podcast from spring training last year. He said that when he went into surgery he was expecting a 6-8 month recovery and when he came out they said it was worse and would be 13-15 months. We didn't know the exact details of the surgery but Lance was upfront about it last year. I posted about it. That's why he said he was targeting a late July or early August recovery back then because the surgery was in June of 2023. He was hoping he would be able to make it back last season but it was a long shot. Here are 2 posts where I talked about it last year and a link to the posts in the 2024 spring training thread. https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/official-spring-training-2024.322422/page-28#post-15107087 https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/official-spring-training-2024.322422/page-29#post-15107724
Ah, so we should put people in roles based on what would happen to the team if they get injured? To play your hypothetical out, there would need to be an equal or better pitcher to Lance that would start instead of him, otherwise we would be starting an inferior pitcher in starts that Lance could’ve made, all so that we wouldn’t have to start an inferior pitcher on short notice and for the rest of the season if Lance got hurt. In other words, half a season of Lance starting plus half a season of an inferior pitcher starting is still better than a full season of an inferior pitcher starting. Now, if the astros had the chance to sign a good starter or a good reliever, and were using Lance’s role as determining which to sign, then your objection would make sense. But that doesn’t seem to be what’s happening.
For guys who haven’t thrown a competitive pitch in over 2 years, yes, their role should take into account their injury history.
I did miss that. But according to him yesterday, the recovery time was 15-18 months, not 13-15 months. So there was pretty much never a chance of him pitching last season outside of maybe the playoffs. But really I’m more annoyed at the narrative the Astros crafted moreso than what McCullers said. According to Lance, he’s pretty much on the normal recovery timeline he had from surgery; according to the Astros he’s had setback after setback over the last year.
Yeah I’m aware, and that was my whole point in asking whether a relief role is more likely to keep a pitcher healthy than a starting role.
McCullers’ injury history since 2015: April 11, 2016: shoulder; returned May 15, 2016 August 3, 2016: elbow; returned October 3, 2016 June 12, 2017: lower back; returned June 24, 2017 July 31, 2017: back; returned September 6, 2017 August 5, 2018: elbow; returned September 24, 2018 March 25, 2019: TJS; out for season September 6, 2020: neck; returned September 16, 2020 May 26, 2021: shoulder; returned June 15, 2021 April 4, 2022: forearm; returned (hurt) August 13, 2022 March 30, 2023: forearm surgery; yet to return McCullers probably should have had Tommy John surgery in August 2016 and things might’ve been a lot different for him. He’s really only had 2 major injures but the recovery was mishandled both times.
At this point I am an equal or better pitcher than McCullers and I can barely make it from my electric lift chair to the kitchen. His getting re-injured is not an if, it is a foregone when. If you have any reason to believe he is likely to be effective in any role you may be the most omniscient fan in all of baseball history. I put the chances of his return to an active role at less than 30% and the chances he will be successful in that role at less than that. Less than 30% of less than 30% is something far less than worthy of the time it takes to consider.
What does any of this have to do with my post? If Lance never comes back then none of the starter/reliever talk matters. If he does then I’m simply wondering whether being a starter or reliever is better for him maintaining his health.
