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KT/Posey Trade Revisited: Analysis?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Rocket River, Jan 30, 2003.

  1. thumbs

    thumbs Member

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    That's my girlfriend's diagnosis, too.:D

    On the basketball scene, Eddie is improving game by game. Against the Wolves he was showing signs of the aggressive putbacks and rebounding for which he was drafted.

    That said, I believe Mo Taylor needs to be the starting PF. He seems to be regaining his shooting touch and is more aggressively chasing rebounds. The desire is there, but he needs trig lessons to help him determine where the ball is going on the rebound.

    Also, Jason Collier needs to be utilized. Did you see that swooping tomahawk dunk last night from a dead run down the court? And the way he ripped down his rebound? Rudy, give the kid a chance!
     
  2. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    HP,

    I agree that banking on Griffin's progress was a gamble. I am pretty disappointed with Griffin too (maybe not as much as you). And I believe the only reason the disappointment hasn't given us as much pain as it should was that it is overshadowed by Yao's development. Yao's "overachievement" is more than enough to compensate for Griffin's underachievement. Yes, the only reason I can see for delaying a trade till the offseason is Griffin's uncertain development.

    But there was also an equal if not greater risk in NOT addressing the weakness at the 3. As I pointed out, the only quality starter was Rice. (Let's just forget about Rice's inconsistent performance here for the sake of argument.) And he was injury prone. So it comes down to whether you want to bank on Griffin's development or Rice's health .

    When Rice went down, without the trade, we would be looking at starting either Thomas, Hawkins, Morris, or Nachbar. We can forget about Morris and Nachbar. If we started Thomas at the 3, that would defeat the very reason to retain him (i.e. to cover Griffin's incompetence), without even looking at his deficiencies as a 3. So that left Hawkins, which you noted that we were winning with earlier.

    Our disagreement here is that I believe Posey is a big upgrade from Hawkins and Griffin/Taylor is not a big downgrade from Thomas. Posey and Hawkins are both tenacious on defense. They have similar speed. But Posey is bigger, more athletic, has a better shot, and is a better rebounder. Posey is a legitimate (not great) offensive threat to keep the opposing defense honest, whereas the defense can just ignore Hawkins.

    At the 4 spot, don't forget that we still have Taylor to fall back to. He is playing better. We even saw flashes of hustle in him.

    So let's imagine the worst scenario, where both Griffin (because of incompetence) and Rice (because of injury) are rendered unless. Do you want Hawkins(Morris)/Thomas(Taylor) or do you want Posey/Taylor? I'd pick the latter any day.

    So I think the risk of banking on Griffin is not as great as the risk of not having a quality 3 besides Rice.

    BTW, I don't think the contract issue is relevant. Surely the Rockets are more likely to sign Posey than they would Thomas.
     
  3. Red Chocolate

    Red Chocolate Member

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    Couple of points:

    James Posey is a huge improvement over Juaquin Hawkins. He is a better defender, better shooter, better passer, better rebounder, better cutter, better finisher.
    Not to say that Hawk isn't a good player; he's a great backup, and plays with a lot of intelligence and heart.

    Assuming the Rockets are able to sign Posey after this season, this is definitely their best trade since they got Clyde Drexler IMO (not counting the Steve Francis trade, which was the greatest trade in NBA history).

    Not to say that Kenny Thomas won't be missed; he's a solid scorer and plays good D and rebounds well. However, he is nowhere near as valuable as Posey, who is a great cutter and finishes better than any Rocket I've ever seen. Also, in an era that is getting more and more dominated by shooting guards and small forwards, having a SG/SF with Posey's defensive abilities is invaluable.

    All of us here are looking for ways to find Yao more shots. By trading Thomas for Posey, we took away a guy who needs the ball on offense to score points. Posey will never shoot, unless it is the product of well-designed play, on the receiving end of a cut pass, or finishing a fast break.

    Also, I'm not sure why most people here seem to dislike Griffin so much. I LOVE EG, and he has more upside than most PFs in the NBA. EG bashers fail to realize that he has the potential to be one of the top shot blockers in the NBA. This season he is averaging 1.9 blocks in only 25 minutes per game. That is sweet.

    Keep in mind that Griffin is only 20 years old. He is 6'10" and weighs 220 pounds; he's not even fully grown! When you consider that he has to defend players like Elton Brand (265 lbs), Tim Duncan (7'0" 260), and Chris Webber (245 lbs), you kind of have to expect him to fail. These are guys that dominate every night against anyone you throw at them.

    Griffin may grow another inch, and should be able to put on another 10 pounds, hopefully most of it being muscle. He's also shown a lot of promise lately, with a solid array of post moves and a knack for attacking the offensive glass for putbacks. I saw him get two easy putbacks against Minnesota, which is huge for his confidence. He also swatted Garnett at least once. Griffin also does a good job of not turning the ball over.

    What Griffin needs is some confidence, and consistency. He plays MUCH better at the Compaq Center, where he is obviously most comfortable. If I were Rudy T, I'd play Griffin more at home, and Mo Taylor a little more on the road. I would imagine that in two years, most of us will be very happy we kept Griffin and got rid of Thomas.
     
  4. fatman510

    fatman510 Member

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    Posey cannot shoot as well as Williams right now. He is definitely working on his jumper and we have seen significant improvement, but he is not a sharpshooter like Williams, but his shot will come.
     
  5. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    Chocolate,

    I don't dislike Griffin. Actually, I believe Griffin remains one of the most liked (least bashed) players on this board. It's precisely my love of this player that makes the disappointment more accute. Many thought that this would be the breakout year for him. It could still be, if he makes big progress the second half of the season. But more likely, it seems now, we may have to wait longer.
     
  6. haven

    haven Member

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    I think we probably won the trade, but I'm not exactly enthused about it. I even think KT is probably a better overall player than Posey - he just didn't fit in with Houston.

    Posey has strengths - his defense is refreshing, and he finishes well in the paint. But I also was annoyed by his violent play against Dallas. Moreover, he doesn't seem to pass to Yao sufficiently. More than Mobley, but less than Francis or Moochie when he has a chance.

    I hate to make that the ultimate standard to judge all prospective players... but some perimeter players seem to have a serious aversion to the post.
     
  7. New Jack

    New Jack Member

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    I haven't noticed that, but that may have to do with the fact that teams still don't respect his jumper. The man guarding him will just front Yao and invite Posey to take the jumper. That's probably why you'll see someone else make the pass. From what I've seen, Posey has been more than willing to make the pass to Yao, when there's a pass to make. When the defense collapses on Yao, he does the right thing and passes to someone else.
     
  8. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    I was pleased with the response. I thought Posey was the only Rockets for a time showing any pride whatsoever in response to a very embarrasing effort at home no less. If KT had a mean, hustle your ass off, retaliate to protect Yoa/SF if necc., do whatever it takes to win streak (e.g., like Najera, Oakley, Artest)--I would not have been in favor of the trade. I still think we need an enforcer but it was obvious KT was more into his offense than doing such a role. While Posey is no enforcer either, he does hustle his ass off and tries to contribute however he can to a win (good role player chemistrywise). Given he also is our most athletic player over 6'4" and is not offensively inept--I think he is a much more valuable player to the Rockets than KT would be, especially over the long term. My opinion anyway.
     
  9. xiki

    xiki Member

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    I'd like to ask Larry Brown for his analysis. Hey, coach, if you could have had JPo instead, would you be happy not cranky? I can guess his reply.

    This was a marvelous deal for the Rox. Good for Denver. It'll be ok for Philly.
     

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