KOC: Rockets have had conversations with Memphis about trading down from #3

I like KENNARD and SMART but if Memphis get their hands on Clingan with Morant, Bane and Jackson……seriously? No,no,no….we draft Clingan

 

Let’s just say Mobs was the pick instead of Green. Then there’s no Alpi.

The draft works in many mysterious ways…

 

So you would prefer if we were in a situation in which we may have to give a max extension to a guy who isn't even in contention to be an All-Star? Interesting team building strategy.

 

I would prefer if we had good players instead of a draft bust, yes.

 

I don’t like any of the poll options. I’m pegging the future Memphis pick as outside the lotto, potentially being a late 1st. That’s not enough for me to move off the #3 pick. I want no part of Marcus Smart; he can’t shoot so not a good fit for our poor shooting team. And Luke Kannard is just not enough to move back to #9.

 

Now i read they're trying to move up in the top 8 of the draft.

 

Jalen green and 3 for Desmond bane and 9 . I’d immediately stop hating on stone if he could pull that off

 

Best I can do is #9 (insert Pawn Stars meme)

Posted in another thread...

CHI: #9 (via MEM) + Landale (HOU) + 2026 MEM FRP (top 10 protected) + 2026 SRP (via HOU)
Bulls move up to #9. Bulls get a backup C and can save some cap space. Chi gets a FRP & SRP for Caruso.

MEM: #3 (via HOU) + #44 (via HOU) + Tate (HOU)
Grizz get their guy at #3 and add Tate (plus cap room).

HOU: #11 (via CHI) + #39 (via MEM) + Caruso (CHI) + Kennard (MEM)
Rox pick up 2nd team floor general & defense setter + career 38% 3-pt in Caruso. Kennard is another 2nd team sniper (career 44%). Grab Ware with pick 11 & AJ Johnson with pick 39. Plus still have NT-MLE (Jalen Smith @ 3 years, $30M?) & BAE.
Smith can hit the three (43% last year) and block some shots. Serves as Adams + Tari insurance. He has a PO this year, but almost assuredly opting out.

FVV - Caruso - AJJ
Thrilla - Amen - Hinton
Brooks - Cam - Uncle Jeff
Bari - Tari - Jalen Smith
Sengawd - Adams - Ware

In the future (as cap goes up), you got
Amen - AJJ
Thrilla (new deal) - 2025 pick (G/F)
Cam - Brooks (could be moved for cap space) - 2025 pick (G/F)
Bari - Tari - Smith
Sengawd (new deal) - Ware

 

Have to give? Why?

 

Weak draft or not, some of this moving off of #3 for Smart or Caruso is nuts.

 

I FIXED IT FOR YOU

 

I really like this. I would want more length in the starting lineup but I can live with drafting Ware for now.

 

To be fair, it's not just #3 for Smart or Caruso straight up. It's likely a trade down or future picks attached. Nobody would draft Smart or Caruso #3 even in this draft.

 

doubtful Memphis would do it

bane has been more efficient in every season and scored more ppg and was more efficient than green this year despite being on a completely decimated squad. Not to mention he’s better defensively .

He’s also locked in on his deal which is expensive, this is the only hope we have for Memphis trading him . Maybe they like the potential of greens athleticism with JA .

 

Desmond Bane was a rookie a Green's current age. He also averaged 8 ppg at Green's age. The first time Bane scored the majority of his makes self created was in his 4th season at age 25.

So his efficiency is a product of a significantly easier role. Rookie Bane for example scored 17% of his fgs made unassisted and Green scored 50% of his fgs unassisted.

Just completed different types of players where one is more of a play finisher who is slowly growing into self creation in his mid 20s and someone who was asked to self create majority of his offense by age 19.

 

I know…. I mean that moving from 3 to 9 for just one of those guys is still terrible imo.

 

bane’s efficiency this year was better than greens this year when morant was out for the games bane played in . Green was a 3rd option most of the year . So while your argument may hold merit for the type of role Bane normally plays , he was put in a creation role this year and delivered better efficiency.

furthermore there is no proof that green in a “play finishing” role will have his efficiency increased .

banes ts and usg rate this year - .589 and .285

greens ts and usg rate this year- .541 and .274

the only thing green has going for him is projection and health (which to be fair is big)

but we also aren’t bringing in Bane to change his role and be a star creator .

imo the reason for the rockets not to do the trade isn’t about green vs bane . I think 100 percent of nba GM’s rate bane as the better current player and maybe some would want green more in a rebuilding situation . the reason not to do it is if you think you are getting reed sheppard at #3 and he profiles to be like bane .

As far as the numbers you gave , I’m not sure how they are relevant or what you are trying to prove . If , for example green had converted more of his assisted looks his ratio of assisted fgs made to self created ones would change .

 

I feel like the problem with trading with Memphis is that they don’t really have the chips we want. I like GG a lot, but do we really need another developmental prospect on top of another pick this year? Any future picks they could offer are likely to be mid-late picks. And I don’t see them trading any of their core guys like Bane. So it’d have to be #9 and a couple unprotected or lightly protected picks. Maybe GG, #9, and a pick.

 

Honestly if you don't understand why they are relevant to what my point is then I just don't think you are willing to accept a discussion about basketball if it goes beyond just staring at shooting splits and ts%.


Yes it matters that at age 22 Bane scored 17% of his buckets on self creation at 8 ppg at 60% ts compared to 21-22 year old Green scoring 20 ppg on 60% self creation at 54% ts

Of course it matters. Jalen is far ahead of Bane at the same age as a lead guard asked to create. Bane's ts% at 22 wouldn't be anywhere close to 60% if he had to bump up to 20 ppg from 8ppg while also bumping from 17% of his makes self created to 60%. His efficiency would dip well below 50% ts if 22 year old version of Bane was asked to do what Green does.

 

@fchowd0311

how is this proof that green is better than bane ? Youre trying to prove a counterfactual. That if bane had been in greens position etc etc

ok , let’s look at how green has done when he’s been “in banes position” aka getting assisted (this is simplifying players as this year bane had a greater usg rate and ast %)

on corner threes - which are very likely assisted green over his career has shot .354 and shot .370 this year

bane - has shot .450 and .442 this year

I can buy the argument that if bane was asked to create for himself more at greens age his efficiency might take a dip

but I can’t buy that greens efficiency will continue to improve , even if his role is reduced . This is because , this year , at his oldest and most experienced and on the best team he’s been on … his efficiency did not increase .


I’m not convinced that 23,24 year old Jalen green is automatically going to be better than 26,27 year old Desmond bane just because he’s growing up . In fact I clearly think the opposite.

You keep using the %of fg assisted . But take a look at what I said in the last paragraph of my previous post .

If a player gets 10 shots in a game . Let’s assume 5 self greater paint drives and 5 assisted looks from 3 . If the player makes 3 of his drives and 1 of the 3’s then he’s “created” 75% of his fg and made 25% unassisted … amazing right , he must be becoming an offensive hub

meanwhile , if that player makes 3 of the drives and 2 of the 3’s (a strictly better outcome ) … then now 40% of his field goals are assisted … he must rely on others .

So this %fg assisted isn’t strictly a good thing. It only captures makes .

Jalen is worse at finishing looks others have created for him .

If Jalen is some star creator , why does bane average more assists ? Hell jalen has even had multiple years being in “his role” and bane had to adjust because Ja went out … so why did bane do it better ? Simply because he’s older ?

do you want more school ?