I think you let him play out the final year if you have plans for the extra cap money this offseason but if not it's minimal risk to just pay him now as they did with Tate. A great but possible year for KJ next year would probably be becoming consistent with his spot up 3 and becoming around average defensively. That's a $15MM+/yr player in the NBA. So, you could get that for $1.8MM next year then $15MM for the next 4 years. Or, you could give him a Tate style 3 yr deal with the last yr non-guaranteed starting at ~$6.8MM. That only shrinks your available cap by $5MM this summer (he's getting $1.8MM now). Worst case you're overpaying a guy by $5MM the next 2 years, best case you have a cheap deal for 3 years. Honestly, Tate is the embodiment of three worst case of signing KJ early. Tate hasn't been great but he has also not prevented us from making any moves. And, he can already start being used as salary filler in trades this summer since he's expiring next year.
I think we're in agreement that this kind of a transaction would be strictly a back-up plan to utilizing the cap room more proactively in signing an outside free agent. However, outside of James Harden, I think that this class is pretty bad, and I don't see an easy way to utilize all of the Rockets cap room without signing Harden. You don't get to roll over cap space in the NBA like you do in the NFL, so I think this would be one way to maximize the use of resources instead of just overpaying for an external FA. The other thing about the renegotiate and extend strategy is that KJ is not even eligible to do so until November 30th, so it would only be done after the season starts, and if the Rockets truly had no better options during the summer.
I don't even think the question we should be asking is "is he good?". I think it's "Do other teams value him?". If other teams value him, then sign him to the best possible deal you can and trade him away at some point. Personally, I think he's been probably the most reliable player on our roster this year. He has very few bad games. You just know he's going to score 12-17 points every single game on efficient shooting numbers. Our defense is so terrible I find it difficult to evaluate a lot of our players on that end.
It's not the NFL, but in the Rockets' particular situation, we would be rolling our cap space into next year if we don't spend it on anything significant this year. We have nobody getting a significant raise until Jalen/Sengun's extension the next year, so it wouldn't be use it or lose it until the summer of 2024. Filling that up with a lump sum payment to KJ is so far down on the list of priorities for improving this team that if it were to be our most appealing option at any point, this organization would be in a (even more) depressing state. And I like KJ.
I always watch our games with the opponent's broadcast team because Ryan Hollins is awful. One benefit of that is you get to hear others' opinions on our guys. Most broadcast teams are pretty positive with us. (When they go negative, it's usually after a weird KPJ iso attempt that looks ugly and then they talk about how we have no ball movement.) But when they speak positively about specific guys, they often bring up KJ Martin. Seems like he's highly thought of outside of Houston. Plays hard and doesn't demand that any plays are called for him. He puts pressure on opponents by constantly trying to attack the rim. He's the kind of guy that basically every team wants, and that's why I (at this time) have no interest in separating ourselves from him.
Couldn't you also argue that's why he's a good player to trade? Eason is better in most categories and has more upside, IMO. If teams like KJ a lot but we're convinced what we're seeing now is 90+ percent of what he'll ever be, and Eason has more upside to be a long-term starting-caliber player, this might be the right time to capitalize and trade KJ to move up in the draft or some such. Don't get me wrong, I like KJ and I think he's clearly an NBA-caliber player. I'm just not convinced he is a core piece and we're still trying to get our core locked in.
I haven't decided either way, but to add to your point, Tari has 3 more years at only 12million, while KJ should triple that over the next 3 years.
There is a scenario in which I could trade him, but I don't think we're there yet. I don't think he's currently inhibiting Tari or taking away too many minutes from him. Also, personally, I'm not ready to declare that Tari will definitely be better than KJ. I would also not be ready to declare that KJ is 90+ percent of what he'll ever be. So I just don't see a good enough reason to move KJ at this time. I think he's going to keep getting better, and if we ever have to trade him that it will be easy to do so at that time. No need to do it sooner.
Fair enough, I think you're higher on KJ's upside than I am, but that's not an unreasonable position to take at all.
