True, decisions are made based on small samples all the time. They are legitimate and needed. However, coaches consider more than the players fg% over the 2 1/2 minutes. There's getting to the right spots on offense and defense, size/speed matchup, taking qualilty vs. forced shots, etc. Those are totally needed decisons and even 2 1/2 minutes is enough time to make the decision, especially if these 2 1/2 minutes confirms what you already know about the guy based on his previous track record (in games and practice). I have NO problem at all with a guy beinig subbed for repeated mistakes or being beaten over a short period. What I am dubious about-- and I'm not sure this is part Clutch's original intention for posting these numbers or not-- is that some of us here are claming things like Rafer should be replaced based on the fact that he missed 2 more 3 point shots over 32 shots and 5 games than he would have if he had kept his % up around at 40%. I must respectfully disagree about not starting Rafer on this basis. From what I saw in the games, it doesn't seem like he's playing any worse than he was earlier in the year, or that he has "lost the touch". The numbers are not enough to refute what I saw on film (and in person, for the recent NY game).
How so? Is Mike James any less worthy a player than, say, Rafer? Is he roughly $7 mil per year less worthy than a Jason Terry? I have to disagree here, Will. I still stand by my comments before the season even started that this team won't go anywhere in the playoffs until we have at least one other guy in the backcourt/SF position who can create a shot for himself without being fed the ball by McGrady, and having absolutely no clue as to what to do when he isn't on the floor; it's somewhat concerning that the team's offense stagnates and halts more often than not when McGrady takes a breather. IMO, although undersized for the 2 guard position, James could have been a deadly weapon to punish opponents for their overzealous defense on Yao and McGrady. I am not saying he's the only guy that fits the bill, but we did once have him on our roster AND he could be had at/below market value.
Yes, it certainly does. Rafer has not played bad at all since the San Antonio game. (Well, I only watched part of the Detroit game in a loud bar so I can't speak for that one) His assist numbers are down because T-Mac is becoming the primary ball handler, and this is not just for the end of games, for he T-Mac was PG throughout his entire playing time during the Memphis game. Also, people are not respecting Rafer's drive anymore. In earlier games, Rafer would drive and dish. But once teams caught on to the fact that Rafer is shooting 33% on layups, they're allowing him to shoot layups and floaters rather than helping as much in my opinion. Also, the Rockets have wised to the fact that Battier is a great post feeder. Rafer is very good at this, actually awesome compared to Luther, but Battier is even better. So that's why Rafer's assists are down. It was a combination of things. And you have to realize many of Rafer's dimes come from the T-Mac hitting that Reggie Miller elbow screen shot. But now that T-Mac is more of a playmaker for the team, instead of a shooter, Rafer's dimes will be less. So all in all, I'm happy with Rafer. I don't blame him for not assisting high, and that's not his role. Keep his overall 3pt% at 39% and it's fine with me that he jacks up 5 or 6 a game. He just needs to finish better inside and stop reaching on Defense so much (once in a while is fine, but not all the freakin time, especially when there's no need).
I really appreciate the analysis and discussion in this thread. I don't see Luther becoming a starter, although I wonder if there will be a new starting point guard by mid-season? Alston would make a great 2nd team point, while the more McGrady plays point-forward the more efficient our offense should be. We are just missing that reliable 3rd scorer... (Bonzi?)
I think you're underestimating Derek Fisher's abilities. He's a high IQ player who takes care of the ball, is clutch as hell and has done it on the big stage, AND is a pest on defense (taking charges, and especially stripping the ball away from the post player...he's perhaps the best I have ever seen at doing that, and it annoyed/still annoys me to no end). Head is good and has a lot of potential, but he makes way too many mental mistakes when the team could least afford it. In that sense, he's still the anti-Fisher.
yao has been great! mcgrady is getting better and getting used to change his role... head will definitely be our valuable asset in the future as he is developing!!! rafer sucks, he has been shooting too much...he should realize he is shooting under 40% from the field... shane should put some points up more...
Hmm. I see. I'll definitely look for what you've said about Rafer the next game. But I still think he's done a decent job bringing up the ball and setting up the offense for us so far, and really don't see any of the backups doing it better.
Hmm. I see. I'll definitely look for what you've said about Rafer the next game. But I still think he's done a decent job bringing up the ball and setting up the offense for us so far, and really don't see any of the backups doing it better. (sorry for the double post)
So, the consensus thus far seems to be: -Continue with Reefer as starter Never mind that he shoots more 3s than he gets assists. -Luther isn't starting material (although possibly the best 3 pt shooter -and clutch - in the league, except for Novak, of course!) - T-Mac is unable, due to fatigue factor, to play point guard (even though a 4 or 5 yr. older Nash wins MVP doing a similar job) - Shane, just for one night, ditch the intangibles and go on a box score frenzy! Just tease us for once. A 25/10/7 night from Shane would inspire both the team and the fan base. Then go back to the intanigbles.
If Steve Kerr can start, Head can start. I don't know if that would help McGrady though. Rafer does take alot of pressure off him, when he ain't feeling it.
I understand you got a little embarrassed earlier and feel the need to keep beating us over the head with this until you feel somewhat justified, but all that was said was that Rafer's three-point shooting is starting to dip, which is fact. It may go right back up again. Yes, the sample size is not large, which was stated clearly before you tried to teach us the obvious. But I think it's very funny that: a) You say it's pure dumb luck that Rafer missed 2 of those 32, but don't mention the possibility that it could be pure dumb luck that Rafer actually made as many as he did. b) You dismiss the most recent 5-game sample (34.4%) because it's too small but trust the previous 8-game shooting percentage (40.4%) as the standard. c) You completely ignore last season where Rafer shot 32.7% from long range on 5 threes a night. And if you want to play the dumb luck card, take out the Mavs game in which McGrady played limited minutes and Rafer was flawless (4-6 from threes, 12 assists, 0 turnovers). We haven't seen anything like it since. When you do that and take a look at 12 of the 13 games this year, Rafer Alston is shooting 35.6% from long range to go with 3.8 assists and 2.4 turnovers.
I think this may be the first time I've ever disagreed with you Will, but I think you know my feelings on Mike James and I've expressed them more than enough times to know I'd be boring people by repeating myself. If it takes bringing him in as a backup to just get him on the roster, I say do it .... I think he'll have the starting job within 3 games. But I digress... I'll just close by saying I don't think Derek Fisher's ankles think Mike James' speed is an illusion <object width="425" height="350"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/2H7LKR4nh7U"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/2H7LKR4nh7U" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object>
Let's get all of the whining out of the way and pick a real sample. A real sample has a 200-400 size. I'm a marketing major and for whatever reason those are considered good sizes, let's use that. His last 335 games is when he became a starter in the league and started to get significant minutes. The non-weighted average is 36.7%. I promise I'll change this to weighted average when I finish class. Thats a pretty good number.
I can't edit, so here's the weighted average number: 36.47% from beyond the 3-point arc on his last 335 games. If someone wants to double-check the numbers, go ahead, I'm no statistical genius. The only real anomaly was last year, when he shot 32.7%. To be fair, he was the second best player on that team, and that is NOT his role. If we are going to be contenders, he has to be the 4th or 5th best player on the team. Look at his numbers beyond the arc dating back to 2001-2002: 38% on 1.4 attempts 39.2% on 2.8 attempts 37.1% on 5.3 attempts 35.7% on 4.9 attempts 32.7% on 5 attempts (last season) 38% on 6.1 attempts (this season) So is Rafer kicking ass? Not really. He's always been good 3-point shooter. But this season, he has a truly dominant post presence, and a terriffic second distributor (T-Mac) which means, naturally, his efficiency from beyond the arc should improve. How much has it improved? Well, there are 3 factors to consider: 1) He's taking the most attempts of his career. I'd like to see him cut down on his attempts by 1. It could mean a slightly better %. 2) He's shooting the second highest 3pt% of his career. 3) He's playing huge minutes, which means he's tired. Shooters really need their legs under them, and making Rafer playing 36+ minutes a game is not smart. I can see improvement from him if we cut him down to 30 minutes, and let Spanoulis and/or Bob Sura eventually take his minutes. Judging by those 3 things, Rafer is having the best shooting season of his career. The beauty of it is that some nights, he's a shooter and McGrady is creating. Other nights, he's creating, and McGrady is scoring. Taking a look at the boxscores, they seem to be reading the defenses well in terms of where to attack from. What I'm especially trying to point out is that this is no fluke. It's not just a balloon waiting to pop. Rafer has been a good shooter for 5 years now. He's having his best season, in large part thanks to Yao and T-Mac, but also thanks to his offseason work. This is mainly why I'm confident in his 3pt shot. The main reason why you guys are waiting for it to fade is because you're seeing his best season coming after his worst season. That huge gap in consistency seems to be overriding the 4 previous years of consistency Rafer put in. I'm happy with the guy. Just get him a back up so that we don't blame HIM when he's tired and doesn't have his legs under him. Right now, I'm most concerned with people knowing that he is being dragged down by the lack of a backup PG.
Oh, and as for Mike James, he definitely has the skills to make this team much better. However, he doesn't have the right attitude, and his poor shot selection may result in nice numbers for him, but it will wear on the team's overall efficiency. We saw that. I hoped that his attitude would change and that he would see himself as a 3rd option more often. But he saw this team like we were the Pistons and he was Chauncey Billups, when in reality, we're a team that has 2 superstars, and then role players. Mike James could've filled the biggest role of them all, but would never be a part of 111. He couldn't wrap his mind around that, and we never wanted that in the first place. His 3-pt shot, defense and "kill now" mentality would be terriffic for this team. But it's just a case of him having too big an ego, and I don't say that about many players. I even support Bonzi.
Just from this discussion I'm sure that we all know T-mac's new role. Offensively his becoming more settled. I was wondering does anyone here believe it is possible for him to average 26 points a game whilst bringing up 7 assist and 7 rebounds a game? His shooting % right now isn't flash hot. But is he capable of putting up higher ppg average in his current role? is that possible?
Sure, everything could be dumb luck and Rafer may well have decent looking stats for 3 pt shooting purely based on luck. That I agree. I don't know if he's a natural 38% shooter or a natural 40% shooter or a natural 31% shooter. Given his history, his "baseline level" perhaps is closer to 35% like Ehsan's long term average shows. I did not assume his first 8 games were the baseline. All I'm mean is that saying a change from 40.4% to 34.4% during this period does not constitute a meaningful dip. He might have gotten slightly luckier during the first 8 games than he did over the last 5. There is no trend. Rafer may well have been bench worthy and a bad shooter, but such a conclusion is not to be made based on these numbers. You can assign whatever motivation you want to me bringing up a point contrary to yours or doing so repeatedly-- whether I am "embarrassed" or what not. For me, I just want to explain what I mean. And frankly, I don't care what your motivation is for keeping on answering my posts and I don't care what you think of me. I'm just explaining my take. If anyone gets annoyed. Sorry, but I can't help it. I'm just talking, not trying to impress anyone or make anyone happy or unhappy.
Ummm, when you miss a LATE freethrow that could decide the outcome of the game, it is considered as a choke. Yeah everyone misses them once in a while but its becomes more important if the game is on the line. I don't see nothing wrong and funny when people call CHOKE on a crucial free throw miss. And I still think Rafer should start at PG. He isn't being the play maker that Tracy is, but he's our best ball handler. Bringing the ball up court every play takes out more energy than you think. Anyone who's every played PG knows that over time, it gets very tiring bringing up the ball every time. If we let T-Mac be that guy, he won't have enough stamina to get off his own shot or even be able to set up his team mates. As of right now, the lineup is just fine.
