I don't care what it shows! I enjoyed the post. Thanks, Clutch. Oh, and I tend to agree with whoever advocated starting Luther Head in place of Alston when the match up permits it. It really seems as if T-Mac is handling the ball - so why have Alston on the court? And I'm not an Alston hater. I advocated the trade to acquire him and I like his abilities - I'm just starting to wonder if he's the right fit for our team as is.
How can we not focus on Rafer's 3pt% in Clutch's Player Performance thread? Despite of his late poor 3pt%, as far as I recalled, Rafer did make a couple critical 3s at the end of 2 games. I think the optimal 3pt attempt per game for Rafer should be less than 5 shots and I am fine if he made one, more than happy if he made two. Luther is yet to replace Rafer as our starting PG, not even close. Unless TMac is going to be our full time PG, Luther should not start over Rafer. And I do not buy the idea of TMac being our full time PG.
I understand what you're saying, we all do. Clutch prefaced his analysis by saying the small sample size is not very indicative. Both you and Clutch are correct. Coincidentally I helped my girlfriend w/ some stats analysis for her dissertation and used a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which I believe applies to this situation (small sample sizes, usually due to high costs of running an experiment multiple times). If you guys are REALLY picky give it a shot. I, on the other hand, am too lazy. Is there some automated way you did these avgs quickly Clutch, or did you have to do them by hand?
van gundier - clutch already said he knows it's a small sample size and that it should be taken for what it's worth. you're not really saying anything that wasn't already implied.
You're a person with a math background who dismisses numbers as long as the team is playing well. Got it. Thanks. Thanks jmwilliamson. As for Rafer, I'm an advocate of change there, but not from within ... yet. I am not quite sold on doing that with Luther and V-Span looks like a worse three-point shooter than Rafer. I think the Rockets point guard position still requires some solid point guard skills, which I don't really think Luther has. By no means do I want to make this a Mike James thread, but that's why I like him so much -- I think he gives you the best of Luther and Rafer for this offense. But in fairness to Rafer, his three-point touch does look improved from the disaster of last season... I just think we're going to see more of Luther and V-Span (who looked real ugly last night) if Rafer starts to slip shooting the ball (as he hasn't been shy). Give me a guy who can pass/run like Rafer, shoot like Luther and penetrate/run the pick-and-roll like V-Span and this is a real contender.
I'm not trying to pick a fight, but if it seems like I have-- Oh well. To clarify, what I dismiss is what I consider insignificant change in numbers. If the trend becomes prolonged-- for example, Rafer keeps on shooting 33-34% for the next 40 games-- or if the difference is truely dramatic-- for example, Yao Ming suddenly averaging 1 TO per game rather than 4 TOs per game over the last 5 games-- then I'd start paying more attention to the change. Otherwise, I dismiss the change in numbers, as long as the team is winning... perhaps even if they are not winning. Such slight changes in fantasy stats can't really help understand why the Rockets won or loss the last 5 games. Just my 2 cents, sorry if anyone find it offensive.
Very well put, Clutch, and I completely agree. I have been for quite some time now advocating a "Jason Terry-type" PG who can pass (not necessarily a great passer) but more importantly can consistently knock down wide open shots and may be even create for himself. I think the irony here is that with this current team we have, Mike James would have played a huge role in the offense, not to mention that he's a better defender and shooter than Rafer has generally shown over his career.
Short of world peace breaking out, nope, there is no better news to be had. I ain't all that good at basketball analysis yet, but, "this is definitely the playmaker of the team" sounds key here. And I think this is where T-Mac is gradually drifting, albeit perhaps unconsciously. Both the numbers and some of his recent quotes seem to suggest this. He seems to really be taking a lot of pride in this. I like Reefer as a back up.
You guys are going in circles. We ALL know the changes are insignificant (or if you do you better hit the books harder). NO ONE is taking them seriously. Just because there's no trend to analyze doesn't mean it's not worthwhile to take a look. At the very least Clutch has shown that the starters are basically consistent, w/ a possible trend adjustment developing. We all check out the postgame box score. Worthless for the season? Basically. But it's still interesting enough to discuss and get a snapshot of what's going on.
Originally Posted by Clutch "Give me a guy who can pass/run like Rafer, shoot like Luther and penetrate/run the pick-and-roll like V-Span and this is a real contender." Sounds like T-Mac. Luther is far outshooting him currently on the 3s though.
1st off, good thread. 2ndly, I did an in-depth analysis of Battier already here:http://bbs.clutchfans.com/showthread.php?t=120592&page=1&pp=20 I respectfully disagree with your opinion. I think Shane Battier is quite confident in the post and does well in mismatches. He can jump hook over shorter players, and drive by slower players. Shane Battier's interior efficiency this year is above his career average. In my opinion, I don't think JVG is using Battier enough. A huge concern I had coming into the year was Battier's shooting. reference threads: http://bbs.clutchfans.com/showthread.php?t=118361 http://bbs.clutchfans.com/showthread.php?t=118644 Shane Battier has always been one of the best corner 3pt shooters in the NBA. He is mediocre to bad shooting from every other 3pt spot. The problem is he never has been a volume shooter. For his career, Shane Battier would take 1 or 2 threes per game. And so he's make 1 or 2 threes and end up with a very nice percentage. But as a Rocket, Battier's role is to be a volume 3pt shooter. The double teams that Yao and T-Mac command are going to leave Battier wide open in his sweet spot. And this season, Battier has been a volume shooter, averaging 3 or 4 three point attempts per game. The problem is he's still only making 0 or 1 3pters per game, especially recently. He's in a terrible shooting slump for the last 9 games, shooting about 25% from behind the arc, if I remember correctly. He started out blazing in the first 4 games. Battier's percentages inside (post ups, drives, tip ins) are good, it's his 3pt shooting that still concerns me. So can Battier get out of this slump? Can he become a consistent volume 3pt shooter? I'm not sure, but I really hope so. As for Rafer. His shooting is fine. The minimum for me is like 39%, and as he dips below that, he needs to get less minutes (there is some analysis behind this reasoning, not just opinion), but if his shooting goes back up, he'll get more minutes. The thing is, other than Head, Rafer is the only other good 3pt shooter on this team, in regards to current performance (and Novak is not ready yet defensively). So if the Rockets are going to have T-Mac the playmaker, and Yao the post monster in the 4th, and they want correct floor spacing, Rafer and Luther are the only reliable guys to do that (who also know how to rotate defensively). And Rafer is shooting well from the elbow 3's, which is really a nice surprise. It's also weird that he's terrible from the corners this year so far (a complete reversal from last year).
nice clutch... your post supports my ranting about mixing up the pg situation! (start two SGs with tmac as point forward and yao/hayes) but either way you look at it, good analysis.
Thought provoking thread, Clutch. The PG situation remains muddled. As you pointed out, Rafer doesn't appear to be the answer at the one, but would be great off the bench (IMO). Luther is money from downtown, has seemingly missed the sophomore jinx, and has clearly stepped up his game from last season, but as you said, isn't a one, but by all accounts, a very good, undersized two guard, who is red-hot behind the arc, plays better D than Rafer (IMO), and appears to be a headier player game by game. While it hasn't been his job description in the past, Tracy is our best point. Clearly. I love the role he's been assuming this season, and that we have the players, like Battier, Head, and Billy (as he gains exerience), who can switch off to create havoc on defense, and cover the 3 (Shane), and the 2 (Head, Billy). Snyder was really coming along, but he's out for at least a couple of months. He's another weapon at the wing, obviously, when he comes back. The point I'm getting to is that we have the personnel to allow McGrady to be the one within our offense. Why not?
By scientific standards, 82 games is also too small a sample size. Until we play our 14th game, 13 games is 100% of the available sample. You work with what you have. 13 games is also 13 times the number of games that 99% of the threads in this forum are based on. We're talking about a sport in which substitution decisions are made based on a sample of two and a half minutes. If you wait till you've got a statistically significant sample, your family will already be on the plane back to New York.
i would like to see rafer as the play-maker off the bench. we need either a shooter, defender, or slasher playing big minutes at the 1.
P.S. I just disagree about Mike James or his clone being the answer. He was a tenacious defender, which I miss. He could penetrate better than our other guards of '04-'05, though that geriatric basis of comparison made him look faster than he was. He could get very hot as a shooter, but he could also get very cold, and he just kept shooting. Above all, he showed little ability or willingness to pass the ball. He just didn't fit the role of point guard on a team with two superstars. His decision to go to Minnesota is completely rational, once you accept who he is: a guy whose competitiveness is more about ego than about team. He'd be worth maybe two-thirds of his present contract as a spot-up shooter, sixth man, and go-to guy on the B team. That's it.
I like the trend with Tracy. His FG%, reb, ast and scoring are all up with the same minutes played. This is good news. Yao is solid as a rock as expected. I'm skeptical about Luther continuing his torrid 3pt pace. Hopefully he won't fall off a cliff like last year. Assuming injuries don't kill us, we will make the playoffs and Luther will be a key rotation player for us. We shouldn't mess with the starting lineup at PG. If Rafer plays well, give him 35+ minutes. When he doesn't, sit him down and give the minutes to Luther and V-Span. I'm very disappointed in Shane's 3 point shooting. We need him to consistently drill those wide open corner shots. I have a feeling he will figure things at some point and become a more reliable shooter. At some point this season, Novak will push in front of Padgett in the rotation. Like everyone else, I want this to happen ASAP. But the main key is it happens sometime during the season. Thanks for the hard work Clutch and for taking the time to set up the table. I'm sure it took quite some time.
I actually don't think starting Luther would be a horrific idea. TMac is our primary playmaker anyway, so Luther could serve as the "Derek Fisher-type PG" role like the Lakers had with him and Bryant. Then when Yao leaves the game for a rest late in the 1st quarter, enter Rafer to handle PG duties and allow TMac to be the primary scorer and offensive option while Yao sits.
IMHO, Rafer should remain the starting point guard for now. As someone else pointed out, T-Mac is doing an excellent job as our playmaker, but it would wear him out if he had to shoulder the responsibility for the entire game. Let Rafer do the work in the early part until T-Mac warms up and is ready to take over in the latter half. (BTW, I wonder if Rafer's drop in assist numbers in the past five games has to do with T-Mac's increasing role as a playmaker?) Plus, Luther Head's shooting seems to be needed on the second team more than anything else. Maybe things can change after Bonzi Wells is integrated into the team and provides a spark for the second team.
