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Karl Rove- History Favors Republicans in 2010

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by cwebbster, Nov 14, 2008.

  1. cwebbster

    cwebbster Contributing Member

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    I dont know how I got this in my email, considering I loathe Karl Rove (someone signed me up for his mailing list), but its a good read I suppose.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122653996148523063.html

    Political races are about candidates and issues. But election results, in the end, are about numbers. So now that the dust is settling on the 2008 presidential race, what do the numbers tell us?

    First, the predicted huge turnout surge didn't happen. The final tally is likely to show that fewer than 128.5 million people voted. That's up marginally from 122 million in 2004. But 17 million more people voted in 2004 than in 2000 (three times the change from 2004 to 2008).

    Second, a substantial victory was won by modest improvement in the Democratic share of the vote. Barack Obama received 2.1 points more in the popular vote than President Bush received in 2004, 3.1 points more than Vice President Al Gore in 2000, and 4.6 points more than John Kerry in 2004. In raw numbers, the latest tally shows that Mr. Obama received 66.1 million votes, about 7.1 million more than Mr. Kerry.

    Four out of five of these additional votes came from minorities. Mr. Obama got nearly 3.3 million more votes from African-Americans than did Mr. Kerry; 2.9 million of them were from younger blacks aged 18-29. A quarter of Mr. Obama's improvement among blacks -- 811,000 votes -- came from African-Americans who voted Republican in 2004. Mr. Obama also received 2.5 million more Hispanic votes than Mr. Kerry. Over a third of these votes -- 719,000 -- cast ballots for Republicans in 2004.

    One of the most important shifts was Hispanic support for Democrats. John McCain got the votes of 32% of Hispanic voters. That's down from the 44% Mr. Bush won four years ago. If this trend continues, the GOP will find it difficult to regain the majority.

    Mr. Obama won 4.6 million more votes in the West and 1.4 million more in the Midwest than Mr. Kerry. Mr. McCain, on the other hand, got more than 2.6 million fewer votes in the Midwest than Mr. Bush. In Ohio, for example, Mr. Obama received 32,000 fewer votes than Mr. Kerry in 2004 -- but Mr. McCain got 360,000 fewer votes than Mr. Bush. That turned a 119,000 vote GOP victory in 2004 into a 206,000 vote Democratic win this year.

    Then there were those who didn't show up. There were 4.1 million fewer Republicans voting this year than in 2004. Some missing Republicans had turned independent or Democratic for this election. But most simply stayed home. Ironically for a campaign that featured probably the last Vietnam veteran to run for president, 2.7 million fewer veterans voted. There were also 4.1 million fewer voters who attend religious services more than once a week. Americans aren't suddenly going to church less; something was missing from the campaign to draw out the more religiously observant.

    In a sign Mr. Obama's victory may have been more personal than partisan or philosophical, Democrats picked up just 10 state senate seats (out of 1,971) and 94 state house seats (out of 5,411). By comparison, when Ronald Reagan beat Jimmy Carter in 1980, Republicans picked up 112 state senate seats (out of 1,981) and 190 state house seats (out of 5,501).

    In the states this year, five chambers shifted from Republican to Democrats, while four shifted from either tied or Democratic control to Republican control. In the South, Mr. Obama had "reverse coattails." Republicans gained legislative seats across the region. In Tennessee both the house and senate now have GOP majorities for the first time since the Civil War.

    This matters because the 2010 Census could allocate as many as four additional congressional districts to Texas, two each to Arizona and Florida, and one district to each of a number of (mostly) red-leaning states, while subtracting seats from (mostly) blue-leaning states like Michigan, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania and, for the first time, California. Redistricting and reapportionment could help tilt the playing field back to the GOP in Congress and the race for the White House by moving seven House seats (and electoral votes) from mostly blue to mostly red states.

    History will favor Republicans in 2010. Since World War II, the out-party has gained an average of 23 seats in the U.S. House and two in the U.S. Senate in a new president's first midterm election. Other than FDR and George W. Bush, no president has gained seats in his first midterm election in both chambers.

    Since 1966, the incumbent party has lost an average of 63 state senate and 262 state house seats, and six governorships, in a president's first midterm election. That 2010 is likely to see Republicans begin rebounding just before redistricting is one silver lining in an otherwise dismal year for the GOP.

    In politics, good years follow bad years. Republicans and Democrats have experienced both during the past 15 years. A GOP comeback, while certainly possible, won't be self-executing and automatic. It will require Republicans to be skillful at both defense (opposing Mr. Obama on some issues) and offense (creating a compelling agenda that resonates with voters). And it will require leaders to emerge who give the right public face to the GOP. None of this will be easy. All of this will be necessary.

    Mr. Rove is a former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush.

    Also for ****s and giggles, here is MC ROVE.

    <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/hYZre8kEsuw&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/hYZre8kEsuw&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
     
  2. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    Rove is the Morey of Politics. The guy is a genius when it comes to slicing up the electorate.
     
  3. cwebbster

    cwebbster Contributing Member

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    I don't disagree with that at all.
     
  4. rimrocker

    rimrocker Contributing Member

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    Hence, the permanent Republican majority based on the math.
     
  5. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    Rove has blown his credibility. His overconfidence in 2000 caused Bush to slow down his campaign in the final week and nearly cost them the election. He had the nerve to predict Bush would win (IIRC) ~350 electoral votes. WRONG! His much talked about fantasy of a permanent GOP majority is not only not gonna happen, the opposite is possible.

    Trends from past history would favor the GOP in 2010 but past trends didn't predict the GOP would get clobbered 2 elections in a row, 2006 & 2008. The GOP brand is garbage right now and until that changes, you can forget historical trends. If Obama's 1st term is semi-successful, the GOP will get killed in 2012. If the economy starts turning by early 2010, don't be surprised if 2010 is the 3rd election in a row where the GOP gets smacked.

    Consider this: Republicans have 19 senate seats up for election in 2010, with many of them questionable, while the Dems only have 15. It's very conceivable the Dems could actually increase their majority. But it all depends on the next 18 months.

    The key for the GOP is to become coherent and to coalesce around particular ideas and leaders. I'm not so sure they are ready to do that. The standard GOP negative campaigning didn't pay off this year and it may not in 2 years. People are fed up with it.
     
  6. HayesStreet

    HayesStreet Member

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    The problem with the politics of hope and change is that expectations rise rapidly. When those expectations, however irrational, are not met then we'll see a turn in the political landscape (ala the Contract with America GOP win in '94 after Clinton was the 'change' candidate).
     
  7. pirc1

    pirc1 Contributing Member

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    It will all depend on how OBama and the democratic congress do the next few years, if they do a very good job then Republicans might be the permant minority for the next decade.
     
  8. Wild Bill

    Wild Bill Member

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    The fact that most blacks and latinos voted conservatively on ballot initiatives should give the GOP some hope. I hope they learned a lesson in how massive the immigration debacle effected their election effort. The border enforcement types had a point regarding enforcement of the law, but this issue and a moderate candidate likely cost the GOP the election.

    Of course, President Obama had a little to do with it as well.

    Here's hoping he's more Clinton than Carter!
     
  9. HayesStreet

    HayesStreet Member

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    Really I think we're potentially ready for a Carter. Clinton was ok and it's not even worth it to compare him to Bush II, but Carter did a lot of straight talking that wasn't appreciated at the time. I think with his kind of emphasis on poverty, energy, and multilaterialism...and no Soviet Union, it might be an optimal mix.
     
  10. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    For the last few years, I have BEGGED the GOP to keep listening to Rove and run his 2004 playbook. For most of the last year, they willingly obliged, consolidating their support in the south and alienating the rest of the country with things like Palin.

    PLEASE PLEASE CONTINUE GOP THX BYE
     

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