Juwan Howard: "I'm going to get plenty of playing time"

Good post. Howard is just going to have to adapt to coming off the bench and I don't see him having any problem with it. At this stage in his career he should welcome it, he will get the favorable matchups against 2nd and 3rd tier PFs. It's a better role for Howard and it let's the frontline of Yao 26, Battier 27 and T-Mac 28 grow, which is basically the direction Leslie Alexander has said the orginization is headed.

 

I'll try to make myself clear one last time since you went through the effort and are among the minority who pays attention to detail. This is a scaled down micro-version of the season. (And no, the following is not the same as "best 5 on 5" analysis...it's a totally different concept).

The 2005-06 Rockets played a game with Juwan getting PF starters minutes of 32 and Hayes coming off of the bench for 15. During Howard's 32 minutes he was matched against and outplayed by a healthy Kenyon Martin. For Hayes' 15 minutes he was matched against and substantially outplayed Francisco Elson.

If you only looked at the stats...per48, PER, best 5on5...Hayes looks pretty good. But if your level of analysis included watching then you see how easy it is to overvalue Chuck Hayes. That's been my point all along.

 

We're going to find out this year that Hayes is better than Reggie Evans. Evans is a physically gifted rebounder, granted, but otherwise he is a knucklehead. Hayes is a better defender and every bit the rebounder that Evans is. Just watch.

And I agree with your minute distribution with Battier getting the bulk of the minutes at the 4. However, backing up the 4, barring a major trade, I see Hayes getting the bulk of the minutes there. Juwan should get his minutes backing up Yao and that's it. They should never be on the floor together. So, the question is, who do you run out there to be the other big when Juwan is on the floor? The choices are Deke, Lil" Chuckie, and possibly Battier or one of the small forwards such as Novak.

It should be obvious that if the Yao Juwan combo is too slow then it is senseless to play Deke with Juwan either. That's super slow right there. So, it just makes sense that the other big playing with Juwan has to be Battier and/or Hayes.

I see our second unit as something like Bonzi and Juwan being the anchors with Hayes/Battier/Synder/Novak/Head/Jacobsen and any other shooters filling in there. Bonzi becomes your primary offensive option with Juwan standing outside for the jumper against the 2nd unit. Then you've got Hayes to clean up the mess. That group should dominate the boards and if you've got Battier on the floor at the 3, along with Head or another shooter, you've got shooters in place for the kickouts from Bonzi.

Even though Hayes had limited minutes, it should be obvious that he is the better defender over Juwan and the obvious better rebounder by far.

And in light of the fact that we should never mix Yao, Deke, and Juwan together on the floor, that pretty much spells out the fact that Juwan should only be getting at the max 13 mpg. We are just not going to run into that many situations where a team like San Antonio is beating us up with Duncan and they've got Battier and Hayes in foul trouble so we have to run Juwan out there. And if JVG is running Howard out there before exhausting Battier and Hayes, and he thinks that Juwan can do a better job defensively in combination with Yao on a player like Duncan than Yao and Battier or Yao and Hayes could do, then we need to consider a coaching change.

I could be wrong but I think the handwriting is on the wall. Juwan is going to be playing with the second unit and the only time he will be in the rotation with Yao or Deke is against very limited bit, slow lineups which are far and few between in this league. You should give Hayes 6 or 7 more PF minutes and Battier 5 or 6 more PF minutes in addition to what they are playing. Battier should play around 36-38 minutes a game. He's in his prime. He will be JVG's new pet, I'm pretty sure of that. The only way Juwan gets more minutes is if we have an injury at the 2,3,4 or if JVG has a brain fart.

 

I take it you mean to say "substantially outplayed BY Francisco Elson" ?

Anyway, granted while I haven't watched Hayes that much, I don't think there's a significant disparity between the intuitive assessment of Howard and the statistical one.

 

JVG will start JHo and its not just to piss all of you off but because JHo is serviceable and will look to get JHo shots early and if his shot is off he will be replaced in favor of Batman moving from SF to PF and the team will adapt accordingly.

Jho will then get minutes as center sometimes and at back up PF.

Hayes and Novak will have to push hard for their time and their time will be be dictated by matchups as well. When they get a chance they had better be ready and if they are not look for a all star trade for a solid back up.

 

I agree. You can generate a respectable offense (for a 2nd team anyway) around these two.

Yao and JH are too slow as a starting frontline bigs in most situations, but Yao or Deke + JH will get time against 2nd units. Deke is better in spot duty than most 2nd string Cs, and JH is better than most 2nd string PFs. Yeah they may be a little slow, but the make up for it in lots of strengths, at least for a 2nd unit. I see JH split between back-up 4 and back-up 5.

It terms of total impact--what he does defensively versus what he does offensively, sorry I do not see Hayes fairing better than Howard versus Duncan or Brand or J. Oneal or Wallace or Randoph or McDyess. If you are to tell be if Battier picked up two quick fouls versus Duncan and had to be taken off and we would turn to Hayes over Howard I just don't see it. Duncan with the 6 inches ht, more reach and more girth simply shoots right over Hayes. I'd take my chances with Howard holding up better against Duncan and the other big power 4s.

Now against your Marions, Diaws, Odoms, maybe Dirks (though Battier and probably Tmac are 1-2 in this assingment)--yes Hayes would be the better defender than Howard. But I again I think it is very situational/opponent driven thing about the back-up PF minutes.

Most of the elite teams don't play their guys this much. Look at the Spurs: TD was his team's highest at just under 35MPG (34.8), followed by TP 34, Manu 28, BB 33.6, Fin 27. For Dallas and Mia too, the only players over 35MPG were Wade and Dirk--their guys who fundamentally change their teams without them in there (JT was next at 35). Look at good role players like Haslem 31, Josh Howard 32.5, Walker 27, Stack 28, Posey 29, and GP 29. The only elite team routinely running multiple guys over 35MPG was Det--and their bench sucked and their team wilted in the playoffs.

Thus when healthy I want to see Yao at 35, max. Tmac at 35, max. The fact we now have Wells and Battier should really allow all our swingmen, including Tmac, to stay fresh. I would like to see minutes of these vets as follows, give or take a few minutes: Yao at 34, Tmac at 34, SB at 31 (close to his career average), BW at 28, JH at 24. That should allow each player to have their maximum impact (go all out when on the court) while staying fresh, something we didn't have the luxury to do before because the drop off was so great with Yao or Tmac not in there. Minutes to the PG spot and other guard minutes I have no idea, I think it is open season there and even Alston's minutes and perhaps even his starting job should be up for grabs.

In sum the Rockets have a good enough bench and should get big enough leads from their starters there is no reason to press any of the starters minutes, this is a good thing in preparing for the playoffs.

 

I agree... when it comes to players salary its the overall efficiency that counts! but forget Jho Im still over excited about the fact that we have Batier/Wells/TMaC/Yao if you can count thats FOUR awesome players!!!!! last year and the years before we only had TWO TMaC and Yao just think what we can do to the dumba** Dallas Mavs (DDM) and Stupida** SA Spurs (SSS) with these players and dont forget V-span/Snyder/JL3/Hayes...
man I could just see it now.... the best 3pt shooting team in the league!!!!!!!!!!!!
I Pity the fools who dont respect Rockets!!!

 

Do I know for sure if Hayes will be as good given more minutes? No. However, what's the logical thing to do when you have a starter who is known crap, and a bench player who has shown promise in limited minutes?

a) Continue to give minutes to the proven scrub, and never find out how good the other guy really is.

b) Give the promising reserve a chance to prove himself, with the only sacrifice being the scrub starter's minutes. If the reserve turns out to be crap as well, you could always bench him again, since it's not like a minimum salary player has any clout with the team. He's probably happy just to be in the league.

I don't know about you, but I'll choose b every time.

 

Howard is fairly scrubby as a starter, I give you that. Is it likely JH will be more effective versus back-up Cs and PFs than versus the elite PFs he regularly battles, yes it is likely. Is it likely Chuck Hayes will find the sledding tougher playing against more elite players with more scouting of his weaknesses by opponents, yes it is likely. Given these two likely possibilities should we assume more of Howard's minutes need to go to Chuck Hayes because Hayes had more efficient stats in less than a half season of his rookie year when he was playing for a hugely important job for his and his family's future--I think we would be jumping the gun there.

I do feel strongly that Battier should be our #1 PF. But I think for now we look at Howard as #2a PF and Hayes as #2b PF. Unless one or the other clearly seperates himself with this completely new team they both should get minutes at the back-up PF and it should largely be dictated by the nature/game of the opposing PF. I am not arguing against Hayes getting his shot, I am arguing against Howard not being recognized as a potential major assett as a back-up to both big positions.

 

There are some valid points here. I will say that Raynor's numbers, the individual box score stats numbers, tend to stabilize much earlier than +/- numbers I'm cited. Hayes may not put up the same per-minute numbers this season as he did last year, but I wouldn't be surprised if its close. I'd also predict that his per-minute numbers will again exceed Juwan's by a healthy margin, and I'd expect that to hold true (though perhaps not to the same extent), if he played 25 minutes a game.

Howard is slipping. Hayes, as a second year, can be expected to improve. I'm not demanding that Hayes moves ahead of Howard in the rotation, but I don't think it's a crazy idea like many others do. I'd like to see how that would work, before we all say that Hayes obviously wouldn't cut it.

 

Desert,

If Duncan gets Battier in early foul trouble, what we should do is bring in Lil' Chuckie and let him stick the other big while Yao checks Duncan. There are going to be times that Duncan can't be stopped. But at some point it is going to come down to Yao vs. Duncan. Remember, Yao does have some skills and he has about 5 inches in Timmy. If Duncan gets 2 quickies on Battier, then he is going to chew up Howard.

And as far as defending against post up players, Chuck is the BEST post up man on man defender we got. Height isn't everything on the low block. Hayes just has that nack for pushing the post up players out a little higher on the block and then he has the low center of gravity and incredible strength along with the quick hands to give those guys the most trouble.

When guys like Duncan get hot in the blocks, you gotta bring the double and help. Who has got the quickness to double and get back on their man? Hayes, not Howard.

Everyone's argument against Hayes defending the bigger PFs is that he is so short. Like Juwan's 3 inches helps him block more shots?????????? Juwan has one foot nailed to the floor and a boat anchor tied to the other one.

You want to know who is better with Yao on the floor? Just take a gander at the +/- numbers on 82games.com for player pairs. There's no comparison.

Oh, the sampling size is too small. We can't get an accurate read on Chuckie. Let me tell you something, the biggest problem Hayes has is his tendacy to reach and foul. Hey, he was a rookie. That was the biggest factor in his sample size being down. Like someboy said, if you actually watched the games, you should be able to see who was effective and who was not.

You guys say he was just effective in limited minutes against second teamers. Fine, is that all you got? Well, I will counter with Juwan was totally ineffective against first teamers, whether it was Duncan and Garnett or Marion, Odom, and Dirk.

You want to look at total impact, look at the +/- numbers for player pairs. That tells you all you need to know. Yao and Juwan's pairing numbers are the WORST on the whole team while Yao and Chuckie's numbers are the best. And you wanna know why?

It's very simple. When Juwan is in the game, we are playing a half court game with no chance to get out on the break. Because he can't rebound worth a hoot, we've got to pack in all three perimeter players just to get dadamball. Then when we go to the offensive end, Juwan's defender is sagging off him and fronting Yao. So, before the ball even gets to Yao, it's got to get past a front and back double team on Yao. That leads to more turnovers and more shots by players other than Yao, including yours truly Juwanamama. And I'm sorry but that jumper from the top blows hot and cold and more often than not it is blowing cold. When he's hot, it is deadly, but that is not often enough. And when he's off that rebound comes off long and you have and automatic 3 on 1 or 3 on 2 break the other way against us.

Now, let's go to Chuckie. On the defensive end, he's eating up the glass, and our perimeter guys can release quicker and force the action the other way. We may not get a break layup out of the deal but we put the opponent in scramble mode. Then on offense, he's a big fat 0 right? Wrong. Teams know he can't shoot it, so they lay off him altogether. They want him to get the ball. And Lil' Chuckie goes straight to the rim. That's why you saw so many crazy plays where he winds up with the ball amongst a bunch of trees down there and lays it in. They are so concerned with Yao and so not concerned with Chuck that it works in his favor. He doesn't stand outside and try to do something he can't do. He goes down low, jams the paint up and our perimeter guys get a better look or they get a dump off to him. And then when they fire up the shot, you've got a rebound a minute rebounding machine hanging around the bucket. When Chuckie is in there, we have increased possessions, increased rebounding, and increased efficiency than when Juwan is in there.

Juwan cannot guard either the Duncans nor the Marions of the NBA. He can't even slow them down. So, until we are able to make a trade for another PF, Battier and Hayes are our best options there. Juwan has a much better chance operating against backup centers. There are only really 2 backup centers in this league that can even play and one of those plays on our team (Deke) while the other one plays in the East (Alonzo). Juwan will have a much better chance of making a positive contribution when he is essentially playing center when Yao and Deke are out.

 

Here's another factor. At the center position, until we make a trade, we really don't have anyone for the regular season. Deke is too old to be playing major minutes during the season. Van Gundy will run him out there occasionally but Van Gundy is going to curb and conserve his minutes throughout the season to keep him fresh, fresh, fresh for the playoffs when he is going to have to have Deke's defense and shot blocking. It wouldn't surprise me if Deke only averaged 3-5 minutes per game for most of the regular season. He may have a game from time to time where JVG gives him 10 or 15 minutes against a team with multiple bigs or something. But I would be willing to bet that JVG plays him as little as possible in the regular season to save him for the playoffs. And if that is so, there is only one other logical choice to be playing minutes at center.

 

I agree that Hayes is by far our best post defender at the PF spot.

He gets under his man, similar to what guys try to do to Yao. Centers couldn't even back him down. I remember when Chuck made Kaman look flat-out silly (or even moreso). He's great at stripping the ball, ala malone, and he is also a deceptively good shotblocker.

edit: ok, just checked chuck's bpg number, which is .36 bpg. Not as deceptively good as I thought, but still approximately 4 times better than Howard.

 

I completely agree with you here.

On the back-up PF minutes more going to Chuck than Howard, we will just have to see. I hope you are right, that Chuck is even better with higher minutes in his 2nd year and is one his way to being a solid PF in this league for a long time, but I am glad this season and our future is not contingent on this. Further I don't think it is slam dunk call for Hayes over Howard against the 2nd tier PFs back-ups mostly face. I am glad we have both Howard and Hayes, I think with them backing up SB (and maybe Padgett for still another option) we are in as good of position at PF as we have been for some time, lots of different types of players for a given situation. At this point lets just see how they play with this new team on new year with very high expectations.

 

0.35 bpg translates into just under 1 bpg in 36 minutes. Nothing special, but not horrible either. Taking the analysis a step further, Hayes blocked 1.8% of opposing team's shots while he was on the floor, which is not far below most big men, whose block percentages are in the low 2's. I'd say that's deceptively good for someone who stands 6-6.

And clearly that number blows away Juwan's shotblocking, which is worse than freaking PGs'.

 

Can you point out specific parts of my Bonzi analysis that are wrong? The fact is that for most of his career, Wells hasn't been an efficient scorer. His great inside scoring is offset by his inability to nail jumpers. Wells is a big acquisition for this team, but he's not quite the scorer some people think he is.

 

Can you imagine a frontline of Battier, Hayes, and Mutombo? The paint would be completely closed off.

 

I wonder if those block numbers include the plays where the post up player turns and Hayes slaps the ball out when he is raising up to shoot. If it doesn't (and I don't think it does), that is just as good as a blocked shot.

 

I think you get s steal instead of a block for that. Karl Malone racked up a lot of steals that way.

I don't know what's gonna happen to Juwan, but perhaps he can be a successful PF or C now that the Rockets got some size and speed around him (and Yao) and they won't expose his lack of help defense ability as much as before. He has some skills, his +/- was terrible, especially playing with Yao, but perhsps it has to do with playing with slow/old/short perimeter guys, too.

 

Only if the ball is recovered by your team, though. Otherwise, it's just a plain old deflection, which isn't recognized at all in the box score (despite being roughly as valuable as a block, particularly when it happens in the paint).