Juwan Howard: "I'm going to get plenty of playing time"

According to his shooting efficiency, Juwan deserves his pay and his starting in the lineup.

 

No he doesn't. He's hot in two areas in the mid-range, and mediocre pretty much everywhere else on the court. This is just his shooting efficiency separated into different areas, and does NOT measure a player's overall scoring efficiency. Who cares if you're considered relatively accurate in a low percentage area, if you neither take nor make much shots in the high percentage areas, or don't get to the FT line (which is the most efficient way to score)?

Juwan's TS% is almost in the bottom 20% of players with significant playing time, as I have already shown. He's horribly inefficient.

 

I dont mind Juwan so much. Its his bloated contract that sux!! I think he will serve us well this year. He has a decent enough shot and is the kinda veteran we need here. Not alot of old timers in this team so Il put up with him unless we get some sorta good trade that comes our way.

 

Juwan isn't going to be beating up anybody. He plays like a guard (without the handles, mobility, or 3pt range), spotting up outside of the paint for his jumpers. Last season, only 32% of his shots were inside the paint - plenty of guards and forwards surpassed that. Furthermore, Juwan wasn't even accurate when he did shoot in the paint.

Corliss's 20 PER would have been good for any player starting or not, and he was much more of an inside player than Juwan is now.

I already said this, but I also brought up that he is very efficient when he does shoot. Low volume and high efficiency, that's what you want from your role players.

According to that page I linked to, research has shown that players tend to play at the same efficiency when given more minutes. And from reading APBRmetrics forums, it's possibly even the other way around - Players tend to play BETTER with more minutes, since they have time to get their game going.

Where is the proof that playing against some reserve players makes it easier for a player? Is there any actual evidence that reserves play significantly worse defense than starters, when defense is poorly understood, not very quantified, and it is usually offense that determines who starts? Furthermore, it's not like the opposing team will rotate out all it's good players at once, usually 3 at most might leave the court. Usually it's like one or two.

Hayes doesn't just beat Juwan in efficiency, he blows him away. I seriously doubt the dropoff in defense between starters and subs is big enough to explain Hayes's HUGE statistical advantage over Juwan. Heck, the best defensive team in the league (Spurs) has a defensive efficiency which is merely 87% of the absolute worst team's (Sonics).

Hayes already made one commonly-used cutoff point, which is 500 minutes played in a season. And again, what does the team have to lose by giving him a chance?

 

If the offense calls for the power forward to shoot mid-range jumpers (perhaps because we have one of the NBA's most dominant post players starting at center), than his shooting from the mid range is very relevent. With Yao clogging the paint, it makes those high percentage shots hard to come by. Furthermore, without the threat of a mid-range shot from the PF, the opposing PF can sag down to double Yao.

 

Ok this has to be said. People the Juwan hate is out of control and irrational.

Juwan Howard is MUCH MUCH MUCH better than what is being stated lately on this forum.

 

Howard is 6-9 253, this has been stated dozens of times.

http://www.nba.com/rockets/roster/

"Juwan Howard 6-9 253"

 

Yao does not clog up the paint. He is supposed to be there. What clogs up the paint is Juwan's defender laying off him and sagging right into Yao's lap. Juwan does NOT have enough range to be able to move the defender out and he sits out there and shoots that clothesline jump shot that bounces out long and furthermore makes Yao an ineffective offensive rebounder, bettering the odds for the opponent scooping it up and running it out to the other end, while TWO tortoises try to make it back down the floor to defend the break.

Juwan should be playing backup minutes at the 5 when Yao is out of the game. And that is when Bonzi is going to make hay. You put Bonzi on the block against a guard and you bring Juwan out high. Bonzi is quicker than Yao and a big sagging off of Juwan is much less effective trying to swipe or steal the ball against him. Then you give Juwan limited shots off the pass outs when the defense doubles on Bonzi. Juwan is too slow to be starting and playing alongside Yao. We need a 40% 3 point shooter that is quick and can get up and down the floor with these teams that consistently go small against us in order to run us down. Everybody in the league knows that our weakness with Juwan on the floor with Yao is speed and quickness and they exploit it by going even smaller themselves and creating running opportunities. Teams love it when Juwan shoots that clothesline jumper because: 1. Yao ain't shooting; and 2. the board is more likely than not to come out long; and 3. when they run against a lineup of Yao and Juwan, they automatically have a 2 man advantage.

There is a reason that Juwan's and Yao's +/- numbers are simply ATROCIOUS when on the floor together.

Juwan ain't worth his contract. He should be playing 5-10 mpg MAX as one of Yao's backups.

 

There is no way in hell wih this team's PF/C depth chart that Juwan Howard should only be playing 5-10 minutes.

I cannot believe you are even suggesting that.

 

damn he looks even more like mr.bean this year

 

Is Juwan going to be traded soon? Hoping that the Rox can do so. Right now PF is the weakest line in the team. Juwan can make a middle-range jump, but can not defend, and can not rebound, which will cause lots of problems for Yao. What is the definition for PF? Is there any power in Juwan?

 

Juwon does not care about wins and loses.

Juwon cares about getting his minutes, getting his offensive numbers, and earning a fat paycheck.

Juwon thinks his paycheck is not fat enough to go after block shots, rebounds, or steals.

Give Juwon his minutes and shots and he will be happy with a 0-82 record.

Afterall, how many times has Juwon been on a winning team in his NBA career...ESPECIALLY when he was a starter/major part of the team?

The curse of scruby Juwon lives on.

 

I agree with what you said until the last part. Howard is not good to play along side of Yao in the PF spot for the reasons you mention. Footspeed and lack of range. That said the answer to this problem is not Chuck Hayes, it is Shane Battier. Chuck Hayes is a bad jump shooter (e-jumper 36%), with even less range than Howard. Howard has always been a solid jumpshoot (e-jumper over 40%). Now Battier is an even better shooter (ejumper 50%), and also is obviously a much better defender/much quicker. We do not want a bad jump shooter (unless they are exceptional at getting to the rim, like Bonzi may compensate with) playing with Yao and Tmac because that basically allows a free defender to help. Until Chuck Hayes proves you can't leave him in the set offense (hit a jumper consistently or blow by his man if left alone), his best use will be a part time hustle player (<15 minutes). Heck, Reggie Evans, the best in the league in the mold of Hayes (yet taller and bigger than Hayes), only plays 20MPG and doesn't start.

Further, we have to realize Deke should probably see very limited PT in the regular season, he is someone we want to save for the playoffs. Yao also has not been a high minute guy, and we want to keep him fresh. Howard is the obvious choice to pick up the slack between them.

C min: Yao 33 Howard 10 Deke 5
PF m.: SB 22 Howard 14 Hayes 12
SF m.: TM 33 SB 10 Wells/Synder 5

What I figure is Deke will play about every other game (no back to backs and really only play when we need defense in the 5 spot), say for 10 minutes. That is why I average his minutes to 5. Also, I figure Yao and Tmac will miss a couple of games over the season, that is why they are listed a 33 minutes instead of say 35.

Howard will still get plenty of minutes. He will be our primary back-up 5, and our primary back up 4 when we play the teams with big or tall 4s like Brand or Duncan or KG or J Oneal or Gasol or Webber or Randolph or West or Wallace or Brown. Those guys will shoot right over Hayes, it will be up to Battier/Howard to take the 1st shot to play them (with help). I mean granted Howard is not ideal vs Duncan, but due to his size and experience he stands a heck of better chance than Chuck Hayes does. Thus the primary responsibility to keep most elite 4s at least a little under wraps/keep them honest will be Battier/Howard. Now against quicker face the basket 4s like Marion, Diaw, Odom, Jamison, Dirk--I give you Hayes may be a better 2nd or 3rd option after Battier (and Tmac) in spots. But this flexibility among Howard/Hayes is a good thing and depends on situations.

So in a nutshell we should be happy we have Howard on the roster. And we should be happy with all offense/defense size/quickness combinations among our bigs: Yao-Battier-Howard-Hayes-Deke (even Tmac at times or Padgett perhaps). I don't know why so many folks so easily dismiss Howard in a new vet back-up role yet assume Hayes can just grow into a 20+MPG guy, Howard has never had the oppertunnity to back-up the 4 and 5 spots on an elite team, he may be very motivated (his chance to finally win) and very effective in this role. Look at how hard and well McDyess has done in this role when he just gets to go all out for around 20 minutes. And no, he AM does not at all resemble the athletic shot blocker he once was either, he now gets by on jump shooting in the midrange and having veteran savvy over the back ups he faces for the most part. Howard can do much of that role for us.

 

Its not about hating Juwan... he's a good player but the problem is that he's getting paid way more than he's worth and thats mostly why Rocket fans are saying all this stuff and also if you compare Shanes and Juwans stats its clear that Shane should be the starter this season. Juwan will definitely get "plenty of playing time" but that does not mean that he will be the starter.

 

where did you get all this crap from!?!! If he didn't care about all these things even with 40 mins per game it would hurt his career dramatically!!! just cuz u hate Juwon u dont need to make all these sh*t about him!

 

This is something I've looked into using the data at www.basketballvalue.com. It provides +/- data for every 5-man unit. I adjust for strength of the opposing lineups:

Code:

Team Offense Against Good Defensive Lineups ( < 100 DRtg)
                poss    PF/100p AvgOppDrtg      Net
Howard on       1995    79.95   85.33           -5.38
Hayes on        436.5   72.16   79.45           -7.28

Team Defense Against Good Offensive Lineups ( > 100 ORtg)
                poss    PA/100p AvgOppOrtg      Net
Howard on       2883    113.32  114.07          -0.75
Hayes on        472     109.32  119.27          -9.95

Not surprisingly, Rockets offense against good defensive teams for both player was pretty bad (Rockets simply weren't a very good offensive team). But with Hayes in there, the Net difference was not that much worse than Howard, despite the fact that he didn't play alongside good offensive players (like Yao and McGrady) as often.

Team Defense against good offensive lineups is clearly in Hayes's favor. We Hayes on the court, we gave up 9.5 pts/100poss less than the lineups usually would have scored. With Howard, the difference was only .75.

I'll admit the sample for Hayes is pretty low to put too much stock in these numbers.

 

Well I am sure Orlando would take Tmac/JH back for Grant Hill and Battier. Fans forget we never signed Howard but he was part of making the Tmac deal possible. But if they want to give Tmac and Howard back they can.

Totally agree. Shane starts at PF. Howard does get over 20MPG in backing up the big spots though.

 

Durvasa, I have the same issues with such extrapolations as with Raynor's figures. Hayes has played for half a season in the NBA, and for only 13MPG. Noboby considered him, analyzed him, or really payed any attention. Be concerned of the Flip Murray phenmenon, where he came on like a gangbuster his 1st real chance only to never duplicate his success because opponents realized his jumper sucked and he could only drive one way (though he was exceptional that one way and beat his man a long time until then figured it our). Hayes also got favorable match-ups and had all the motivation in the world to play his guts out (to get an NBA contract) despite us having a hopeless season and the vets in tank mode (at least the vets should have had direct orders to be in tank mode).

New season, new motivations (title possibilities for veterans, look what it did for the Heat vets), new combinations of players, and new roles. Howard and Hayes could both be in the picture but lets not jump the gun on their new roles based on performance from the last half of an utterly lost season.