The more I look at this, the more I'm concerned that we won't be able to keep Smith in 2015 free agency if he plays well this season. Why? It all has to do with the stretch provision, setoff rules, and the Rockets not having his bird rights. Stretch Provision From Larry Coon's NBA CBA FAQ: Smith has two years left on his contract beyond this year. That means that he will be paid the full amount due this year, but the final 2 years of his contract will be paid out over 5 years. As I understand it, Smith will be paid the following by Detroit for this year and the following 5: 14/15: 13.5 15/16: 5.4 16/17: 5.4 17/18: 5.4 18/19: 5.4 19/20: 5.4 This has nothing to do with Smith's cap hit, and everything to do with WHAT HE IS ACTUALLY PAID. Now if you were Smith, you would care that you are only being paid 5.4 in your prime years when you are worth 8-10 easily. So let's look at what the Rocket's can actually offer Smith next season: 1) Sign to any amount (up to the max) the Rockets can clear in cap room. Given the Rockets commitments to Harden, Howard, and Ariza, this is very unlikely. 2) Non-bird free agent - about $2.5 million (120% of his current salary). Due to setoff rules, Smith would make about $7.1 between what the Rockets and Pistons would pay him. 3) Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception - about $5.5 million. Due to setoff rules, Smith would make about $8.6 million between what the Rockets and Pistons would pay him. The problem with this option is that the Rockets would be hard capped at the apron, making resigning their own free agents difficult (Brewer, Dragic if traded for). Rockets would only be able to offer Llull, Gentile or any other free agent the minimum. 4) Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception - about $3.4 million. Setoff rules, blah blah blah, Smith would make $7.6 million. Rockets would only be able to offer Llull, Gentile or any other free agent the minimum. So here's the issue.....it's very possible that the Rockets wont be able to compete financially with teams that have cap room next summer. Smith is in his prime, and will likely not be willing to wait for the Rockets to get his bird rights (another 2 years from now) to get his next payday. The Rockets have some difficult decisions ahead of them. Smith was a great addition, but I worry that this is just a one year rental.
Dwight and Josh are best friends. The hardest part is over. If we win the chip he definitely signs back to repeat.
A move strictly to go for it all this year.I would be shocked if Morey is able to keep him after this season.
hmm, i was under the impression that we all believed this would be a 1-yr deal. i don't se him turning down tens of millions to stay, even though he likes it. I'm sure how the next few months play out will dictate everything though
Josh Smith is the 3rd star Rockets have been looking for, of course you extend him! No brainer if you ask me.
The thing that worries me is if we go close, and we lose guys we may never have the window. This team has so much potential, I dont want to worry beyond this year now but I'm sure if anyone can keep josh it's morey
If he plays well enough to be considered that "3rd star" and the a Rockets are successful, Morey will find a way to retain him. I have no doubts about that. I'm very excited about this "try out" we have with him. If he can put up numbers like he did tonight on a regular basis and play the way he did, the Rockets have something special. I just do can't get over how fast our rotation filled up with quality veterans so fast. There were some games where we had three rookies playing major minutes. Now those minutes are taken by good vets like Brewer and Smith. Just crazy!
My understanding is that the rule is basically that for every $1 above the 1 year veteran minimum that Smith makes between now and 2016, he will receive 50 cents less from his Detroit contract. Not sure how mechanically it works with the stretch provision, and there is a time value of money component, but this is the basic math. And we are talking pre-tax dollar, too. So, Smith does have the incentive to go for extra money. It's just that the incentive is at about 50% of what it would have otherwise be between now and 2017. The Rockets may well lose Smith at the end of the year, but there are just too many factors to the question for anyone to know right now. How well will the team do? How well with Smith perform? How happy will he be come July? How much are other teams willing to offer? I could see Smith just taking the biggest long term $ deal that he could find in July 2015. At the same time, I could also see him accept a smaller deal to stay in a good situation (assuming that it does turn out to be a good situation) and test the market again in 2016 or 2017 when the salary cap is expected to rise dramatically. Also, there is always the option of making an illegal under-the-table promise to sign Smith to max contract in 2017 if Smith agrees to stay the next 2 seasons and thus earn his Bird Rights-- McHale just has to remember not to put it on paper this time around like he did with that other Smith guy.
smith said he has "newfound brothers" on the rockets.. and he can truly contend for years. i think both sides find the proverbial middle ground on a contract extension.
Wtf lol. It's on been one game and we're talking about his next contract? How about we wait and see how he does first? Personally, I don't think Morey will offer him a big contract.
I think people overestimate what Josh Smith would be worth on the market. He can be had for the MLE for anything short of just an unbelievable finish. Now let's assume he's all that we hope he can be. Fill the stat boxes, play awesome defense, the Rockets get far into the playoffs. I would not be surprised if he signs a 1yr+1yr Player Option at full MLE. Then the Rockets give him a raise in 2016. That's probably the fairest contract all things considered.
It might be too early to talk about smiths future on this team but the question is interesting at least from a standpoint of knowing what kind of options the rockets have and what things they'd have to do financially. If I'm not mistaken the rockets are slated to have roughly 69-70mm in salary next year if they keep pick up options on KPap and Shved. If they trade or decline them they have about $9mm less so assuming a 66-67mm cap that'd out them around 5-6mm under the cap. If they traded jones without taking salary back that be 8-9mm under the cap. I think that would get you enough to offer Smith a more than competitive contract especially if this team goes far into the playoffs. You lose KPap and Jones though in that scenario. To add confusion to the scenario, say you made a trade of KPap + Jones and filled for Dragic. That pretty much eats up all your cap space and I don't think there's anything you can offer smith other than MLE money. Would you (if it were an option) trade for Dragic which would effectively close the door on smith unless he signs for MLE? Personally i would if the chance for Dragic is on the table and you roll the dice with smith in the summer.
Smith might be ok with that since he's half double dipping, and it would build up his bird rights for a deal when he's no longer paying some of it back to Detroit. We know Morey makes "unofficial" agreements too. He could have taken more money after getting waived too.
