Josh Smith, Houston's Gamble

So you're saying that a 28 year old Jefferson (who just turned 28 last month) is past his prime, but a 27 year old Josh Smith (who turns 28 this year) isn't?

If anything, going forward, Jefferson's career will be more productive than Smith's b/c Jefferson relies on skill while Smith relies on athleticism.

 

Plus, Donatus runs the court and stretches the floor in a way that Jefferson never could.

Also, Jefferson is a big perennial minus on defense, especially at power forward and especially in pick and role defense. Donatus is not a very good defender right now either, but he has the speed and tools to learn how to become a good defender. He is not certain to get better in that regard, but Jefferson is certain to only get worse from here on out.

 

I'd like to say bravo in regards to you trying your hardest to twist the age of both players in your favor. Jefferson just turned 28 last month but Josh Smith is turning 28 this year even though he just turned 27 two months ago. Very nice wording.

As far as declining goes it is hard to deny that Al is not the same level of player he was a few years ago. He's having his worst shooting season of his career this year despite taking fewer shots than he normally does. When you factor in that he is a bad defensive player it is hard to get on board with signing him to a young team likes the Rockets.

Smith on the other hand will be a good defensive player for years to come. I don't like Smith at his price but I believe that even as he ages he will still be a good defensive player and we don't really need him to be a great scorer.

 

Their age is less than one calender year apart, and I'm simply pointing that out. How is that twisting anything? It's disingenuous to say that Jefferson is past his prime while Smith is not.

So Jefferson's fg% drops by 0.5% from the prior year and you're ready to condemn him?

Jefferson is still shooting 48.7% with a PER of 21. Josh Smith is shooting 46% with a PER of 17.7.

Smith is heavily reliant on his athleticism, and you believe that as he ages (and loses athleticism), he'll still be a good defensive player?

If we're going to spend ~10-12 million on a player, he needs to be able to add a dimension to our team that we currently lack.

 

No it's not. Age is not the only thing to determine a player's prime. Deron Williams and CP3 are only a year apart but it sure does look like Deron is past his prime while CP3 is still in his.

Jefferson is playing fewer minutes, taking fewer shots, and playing in a contract year but still has the worst the worst fg% of his career. Your percentage should be going up under those circumstances if you are a player that is still in your prime.

Josh Smith's length will not be going anywhere and that is one of the reasons he is such a good defender. Even if he loses some athleticism he will still be a good shot blocker and paint defender. Also, Smith appears to be a very durable player and hasn't really shown anything that would make people believe that he will be slowing down soon.

 

I've already addressed your other posts previously, so I'll start here.

You're absolutely wrong. Our lack of a post game is a current weakness b/c the game slows down in the playoffs.

If you intend on adding Josh Smith, then you've solidified your fortress so much that it turned into the Maginot Line.

It's ignorant to say that with Josh Smith, the Rockets would be more dynamic than a Nash-led SSOL Suns team.

The corollary is that we don't have a player like Nash who is aware of everything on the court, an elite passer, and one of the greatest shooters in NBA history.

In other words, we'd be nothing like the modern day Phoenix Suns. Which was my point all along.

 

I see what you did there, subliminally, and I too would "Love" the prospects that that kind of "Love" could bring to the Rockets.

Does anyone else "Love" the idea?

 

Hasn't Williams have been playing through injuries all season?

And for a player like Smith, whose game is highly dependent on his athleticism, age is a major factor for his prime.

There's nothing Jefferson can do about playing fewer minutes. The Jazz want to develop Favors and Kanter. He's still playing efficiently (his PER is 21 this year compared to 22.8 last year), and his drop in fg% is negligible.

And by your argument, Josh Smith should be way past his prime. His PER was 21.1 last year, and its fallen to 17.7 this year. That's quite a drop. And he actually has a negative offensive win share (-0.3).

You can't beat Father Time. How many hyper athletic PF's were able to sustain their athleticism into their early 30's? Shawn Kemp wasn't. Neither was Kenyon Martin. A young Charles Barkley was super athletic, but as he aged, he developed a post game to accommodate his decreasing athleticism.

 

The argument wasn't really about Deron but instead how players can peak at different ages.

I'm not blaming Al for not playing enough minutes but i am pointing out that with more rest he has turned in to a less efficient scorer which isn't a good sign.

My argument is not based on PER.

Who would you consider over the last few years to be hyper athletic PFs that were as good defensively as Smith? KG remained a very good defensive player even after he lost his athleticism.

 

This is a very important point. The Rocket's offense is similar in pace , style and production as the Suns D'Antoni offense, but they are so with a true defensive center.

This means the Rockets are able to approximate the success of the Suns without resorting to putting an offensive oriented player like Amare or Diaw at the 5. This also means that the Rockets could be able to have better rebounding and defense than the Suns ever did, since Asik is so strong in these categories.

Asik is a real game changer for the a team, like the Rockets, running this type of offense.

Also, the truth is, since there have been so few teams, relatively speaking, to run that style, the sample size to say whether or not it can work or how it can be tweaked to work in the playoffs is not there yet.



The Suns would use Diaw and Amare at center, neither of whom were a strong defensive or rebounding presence inside the way Asik is.

 

Yep, Al Jefferson is shooting a worse percentage this year. Last year was 49.2%. This year is 48.7%. You sure are making a big deal about a drop of 1/2 a percent.

And it's fine if you want to ignore advanced statistics, but guess which GM doesn't?

Probably not many, but that's b/c you can play good defense without being a super athlete as long as you have good defensive fundamentals. Maybe Larry Sanders?

Does Josh Smith have good defensive fundamentals? Seems like the bulk of his highlight blocks are the result of his athleticism. You would think that if he were such a consistently great defender, he'd have more on his resume than an All-Defensive 2nd team back in the 09-10 season.

 

Ignoring and not basing my argument off of them are two different things. PER is much more of an offensive stat than a defensive one and Josh Smith brings way more to that side of the ball than Jefferson does. Asik has the 34th highest PER for centers but we all know that doesn't tell the story about him.

Smith has consistently been one of the best shot blockers since coming in to the league which is something that the Rockets are lacking. As good as Asik is he is not known from being that great of a shot blocker so Smith would be a big help in that area.

 

I like both Al Jefferson and Josh Smith!! Smith fits our run and gun style better while Jefferson gives us that extra low post threat when our jumpers not falling.. defensively Jefferson is tougher and more physical while Smith is really athletic, lol extremely tough choice. Just based on the limited games I have seen them both play, Smith takes more plays off than Jefferson. But both brings so much but yet different skillset to the table.

 

The problem with that logic is that Asik was brought here for defensive purposes only. So looking at his PER is useless. However, Josh Smith will have a big role in our offense so you have to consider his offensive efficiency.

You're overrating shot blocking. You don't need shot blocking to have a great defense. When Garnett was DPOY in 2008, he only averaged 1.3 blocks per game. And when Chandler was DPOY last year, he averaged 1.4 blocks per game.