I trust that Morey won't pay him anything that will cripple our ability to land another star in the event that we don't get Dwight or Paul. To me, Smith is a slightly better Lamar Odom type player. A great guy to have as maybe your 3rd best player. But I'm not giving him more than $10 or $11 million per year, and unless we get Dwight first no more than a 2 year deal with a team option for the 3rd or something along those lines. We just cannot afford a bloated, immovable contract.
It's been whispered for some time that he's wanted to come here. Hopefully it means that he's willing to accept less to play here.
He is asked to do far too much in ATL. In Houston he would just feed off of harden offensively. He wouldn't be forced to make many decisions, so you won't see so many 3's jacked up. I think he's a perfect fit. He has enough if a post game as he showed in that video, and his defenense alone would make us much much better.
My bad. I meant to write that he's obviously not worth the max. Ha. I do not believe that you can can similar production for less the price or from any of the rookies currently on this roster, but you can very well make the argument against Josh Smith and the Rockets certainly shouldn't overpay for him. How much is too much? I don't know. I think he's worth $12-13M. Possible a little more. We'll see. It should make for an interesting summer.
The key factor for me with Smith is years, not so much the annual amount. First off, if Smith and Dwight are working to both come here, then I'm fine with almost anything. A core of Harden-Howard-Smith-Parsons makes this team a legit title contender for years and years to come. Whatever the cost, it's worth it for that foursome. If we're talking Smith without Dwight, what it really comes down to from the Rockets' perspective is whether Josh would sacrifice a year or two off the back end of the contract. The first year (2013-14) is irrelevant -- Smith is going to be here and he'll make us a better team. Beyond that, though, you would probably need a major trade (as Morey has said) to upgrade our "second option" into true contender status. Come summer 2014 or the 2015 deadline, Smith probably wouldn't be desirable if he still has three years left on his contract (the maximum four-year length). However, if he has just 1 or 2 years left... it's entirely possible that a team like Minnesota or Portland could use him as a "bridge" in their rebuilding. If it were a two-year deal, there's also the option of Smith/Lin/Asik all expiring in 2015 and the Rockets having cap flexibility that summer (if a trade hasn't happened). If anything, I think it may make sense to frontload the Smith offer to try and entice him into a shorter deal. If that works, and it's a big if, I do think he makes sense here -- even without Dwight. He'd be an ideal fit for the current system and should put up big numbers.
The idea of Smith and Howard on this team is starting to make me feel more comfortable than the idea of Paul and Howard just based of matching up with the Heat. I think a huge front court is key to challenging the Heat.
If Smith will take $11-12 million/year, block shots and cover the other team's best player, while limiting his offense to the post (low and high) and corner threes, he would be a great fit.
Sounds good to me. His agent is probably looking for 5 yrs/$65M, which he's unlikely to get. If we can get him at 4 yrs/$45M, Josh Smith is a take. Fills in a huge void with his weakside shot blocking skills - we had nobody to rebound/block shots when Asik was out of position. Aside from that, Smith can stretch defenses with his J, and plays well on the fast break.
You're basically right, but substitute 4 and 3 for 5 and 4. He can't get five years anywhere except Atlanta, and both sides seem ready to turn the page there... so my guess is it'll be a three-year offer from Houston (maybe a "team option" for a fourth) against true four-year offers elsewhere. Guessing Rockets will try to frontload and a few other tricks.
This is the key to me as well. One, you don't want Smith without a guaranteed 2nd star. If that's Howard, that's great. But even if it was CP3, that'd be fine, too. Because Asik is certainly a serviceable center. And even if it wasn't one of those, it needs to be someone. Smith as your 2nd star is ridiculous, and if singing him in any way hampers your ability to get that second star, then its a horrible move. But assuming you could get Smith + Howard, the matchup with the Heat particularly, but other up and coming teams as well, seems very favorable. For one, Harden can more or less carry a backcourt by himself. Whether its Lin or Beverly back there... or anybody else, if you have a top 3 SG in Harden out there, getting significant minutes, as efficient as he generally is, your backcourt is at least ok. But consider the Heat, which dominant from the wings principally. Consider the Thunder, which dominate from the wings principally. Consider the Warriors, who are good entirely from the backcourt. Consider the Spurs, who have been good historically because of an awesome frontcourt... but the frontcourt is aging faster then the rest of their team. Howard/Smith is basically an upgraded version of Memphis, or Indiana. Take Houston's offensive style, and add Memphis/Indiana's defensive and rebounding capabilities, and ability to play in the halfcourt when necessary, and the squad should compete for championships every year for the next 5 years. Who wouldn't take that. Harden, Parsons, Smith, Howard are all over or at size for their positions, long, athletic players, excellent rebounders for their positions. Howard can shut down the middle. Parsons AND Smith can both be versatile defenders, with Smith capable of guarding 3/4/5 and Parsons capable of guarding 2/3/4s. Don't get me wrong. I think Kevin Love would be ideal next to Howard, since it should open up the floor so much offensively and Howard can masks Love's defensive weaknesses... but I think Howard/Smith bring you a dimension that very few frontcourts in the NBA have currently.
Yeah definitely sounds a Morey special - frontload the first three years, with a team options for the fourth. Give him 3 yrs/$36M-$39M. That's fine
I think the Smith vs Millsap signing is interesting from another angle. Millsap has been a 20+ PER player, around 5th to 7th PF in terms of win-shares and other advanced stats, despite being the second option in the frontcourt for all his time in Utah (behind Jefferson and Boozer). So he knows how to fill in a role exceptionally well. It is rare you see a second option inside average these numbers (per 36 min). And it fits the Rockets in that Harden, Parsons and Lin are good enough to be options 1-3 (at least this season we scored amongst the highest while running average PFs and a below-average offensive center). Can Millsap take his game forward a notch if he became the 1st option in the frontcourt (albeit maybe still 3rd to 4th option overall?) On the other hand, Josh Smith has always been the first option inside (ahead of Hickson). And sometimes first option overall (after Joe Johnson was traded, at least). How will he adjust to being the 2nd or equal 3rd/4th option overall with Parsons/Lin? Will his efficiency go up? Or will his game not translate. With being the first option, Smith's PER was below 18, and his TS% pretty disastrous. Would his stats take a step forward being the 3rd/4th option? Or would it take a further step backward? I think Millsap is definitely the lower risk, because he's already giving you good advanced stats per 36min as the 3rd/4th option, and he won't have to adjust his game too much other than add a corner 3. For a hustle player to get 20 PER year in year out, with advanced stats like win-shares and replacement value that he has, without needing to adjust his game much, he's a pretty safe bet. Safer than Smith. Less upside than Smith if Smith can adjust his game.
Damm he's great around the basket. With Harden and Lin feeding him, he should be able to get more inside looks.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/YzfXSPEzHGo" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> I don't think people appreciate how good and athletic Smith is. He is playing out of position in Atlanta.
