Jon Singleton up! Agrees to 8-year, $35 million deal.

On another note, was great to see both Springer and Singleton in the lineup for the first time last night, finally finally finally creating some true baseball excitement again at MMP

 

Correa will be fun to watch. He has A-Rod Talent. Pre steroid A-Rod though. Get him on that juice.

 

Yea can't wait for him to get here!

The key to this whole thing is going to be all the pitching, if two of the arms we are developing can turn into Ace quality pitchers, then the sky is the absolute limit

 

The Stros have arm talent.

They don't seem to have that dominant ace prospect though.

Aiken, Kolek, or Rodon can provide that.

Colin M and Dallas K will be back end pitchers in two years hopefully. There recent ERA's are not who they really are IMO.

 

The Astros are also taking almost zero risk.

Is Singleton getting compensated fairly for selling three options on himself?

And salaries are only going up.

 

If he is Ryan Howard he'll be insanely underpaid.

If he's Goldschmidt, he's fairly paid.

If he's in between he's underpaid.

In almost no scenario is he overpaid. Only if he is a complete bust.

 

So in your world, the vast majority of baseball players are overpaid. Fascinating.

 

Whoops - I mean underpaid, since very few make the $35MM over 8 years that you think is underpaying most non-busts.

 

Uh, no. I'm talking about this particular deal dude. Try to keep up. This isn't the D&D BTW.

Fangraphs columnist estimated $45-60 mil as something pretty achievable for Singleton. Astros wouldn't offer it if they didn't stand to save money. Salaries are going up.

If he just achieves an .800 OPS, he would have likely to have made $45 mil.

 

Very few? I think that's underestimating things.

First of all, Singleton deserves to be evaluated in the category of "highly touted prospect". Yes, not all call-ups make it... but not all call-ups are "highly touted prospects."

Out of those prospects that do make it, they're all going to be paid pretty well in the arbitration years.... in addition to the fact that arbitration numbers go up when average salaries go up.

Lastly, this front office (which usually seems to know what they're doing) is banking on the player making it (not busting)... and saving money in the arbitration years.

Its a "good" deal for Singleton now, but it has more of a chance to be a bad one unless he completely busts (for which he won't get the option years anyways). And, of course, its a "great" deal for the Astros really no matter how the player does (and simply gets better and better if he "meets" their already preconceived expectations).

 

Why are you trying to play d&d gotcha games.

I'm not necessarily saying it's bad for Singleton. That's up to him.

I just think there's a pretty good chance he'll be underpaid in a few years, given his talent and the market.

 

If he fails, or suffers a devastating injury, will that fangraphs columnist send him a few million bucks to take care of him and his family for the rest of his life? Will Bud Norris do that?

If not, they shouldn't be so quick to criticize a guy that just provided lifetime security to him and his family

 

That is true, but the whole drug/alcohol situation has to be factored in also. And to Jon's credit, he seems to know that he is an addict who will have to fight to not turn back to that. I would guess that all factored into the equation, for both sides

 

They weren't criticizing him, they were saying that's what he could be worth and it wouldn't be a stretch.

Its up to Singleton to determine if it's worth it to give up the upside.

 

It's a 5 year deal for $10M with options and incentives that could bring that to 8 years and $35M.

$10M a year is what most 1B are paid. Singleton really only needs a year of .275/25/90 to outplay that contract.

 

Do you realize how good Paul Goldshmidt is?

I'd love for Singleton to be that good.

 

Oh heck yea if turns into Goldschmidt, we gonna be rockin

 

Achievable? Of course. He's trading potential upside for limiting downside. That doesn't make him underpaid.

Again, if this is true, why can't you find all these average players generating $45MM in their first 8 years? So far, you've given us one MVP and struck out on a few other guys. Here's your claim:

Actually the only way this is a good deal for him is if he completely sucks. Even just being above average will cost quite a bit.

You're saying it's not a good deal if he's even just decent. Yet you can't seem to point to any players outside of superstars that made this kind of money over 8 years - and that's ignoring the fact that he's guaranteeing himself a high floor that none of those players had if they failed.

I've asked multiple times for a list of these average players that make this kind of money. We've gotten:

Napoli - not true
Chris Davis - not true
Ryan Howard - MVP caliber player
Joe Mauer - MVP caliber player

If there are so many players that simply don't "completely suck" and make that kind of money, it should be fairly easy to point to some without having to pick MVPs. There are 750 major leaguers at any given time. At least 400, arguably, fit the "don't suck" qualification. How many of those do you think made $35MM in their first 8 years, and how many of those were non-superstars?

That wasn't Mr. Clutch's standard. He said the only way Singleton benefits is if he sucks. If he's above average, he loses out. That's the standard we're looking at.

Of course - all of that is true. That has nothing to do with the claim that the only way it works for Singleton is if he's a bust. I am arguing that it works out well for him if he's average, or even above average too. He loses out only if he's a star.

 

I missed that nugget. Goldschmidt is arguably one of the 10 best hitters in baseball. If that's what Singleton has to be to be "fairly paid", then there's basically no way he's underpaid unless he becomes Albert Pujols.

 

Also, there are 3 option years.

Astros will only exercise them if Singleton is worth at least as much or more. If he's worth less, then they simply don't exercise and pay him less.

There's a reason Morey doesn't like player options. And team options are just as bad for the player.

Of course Singleton gets the $10 mil.