Jon Singleton up! Agrees to 8-year, $35 million deal.

let’s assume a high-quality slugging 1B would have earned ~$40 million in future arbitration earnings and another ~$25 million for his first free agent year

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/astros-officially-create-the-sign-and-promote-with-jon-singleton/

 

How easy are his incentives to hit? If he's a star wont he make closer to the $35mm? Isn't it possible that the guaranteed money will make him more comfortable and relaxed and more able to be a productive big leaguer?

 

Sure they have... it just used to come in the form of a draft signing bonus/rookie contracts vs. a MLB contract.

Much like the union conceded to allowing for max slots for draft picks, they may be better off settling for rookies to sign these deals... which will usually give owners more money to spend on established free agents anyways.

The union's biggest fear is that this will drive overall salaries (even at the arbitration level) down... they'd much rather have guys wait a year or two and possibly sign mega-deals sooner (like Posey and Trout).

 

That's the big unknown... on the one hand, guaranteed money takes some of the pressure off on players prior to arbitration years (which are basically year-to-year "contract" years). But then again, guaranteed money could take some of the work ethic down a notch.

In the end, its a win-win deal for both sides, with the opportunity for it to be a steal for the Astros. The union obviously would rather see more money being made.

 

Not sure it will change very much... unless they push for less club control years, a "restricted" free agency system, or a franchise-tag system.

If they try to simply make it that rookies or young players get earlier free agency, they'll be the ones getting the bigger deals, and you won't see teams overpaying to get players past age 30 (whereas right now, those are the only guys "available" to purchase).

 

One thing I can see the union trying to influence is the teams' ability to use these contracts as "ultimatums" to a call-up.

Some sort of clause that as soon as a player is even just offered a multi-year deal, the player's service time starts (or some variation of that).

That way, the player doesn't have to decide between signing the contract or fear that he won't be in the majors for another year or longer.

 

Players that fit what you're saying are in the Prince Fielder/Ryan Howard type of production.

You brought up Hunter Pence, which is actually the type of player Singleton more likely project to and didn't even come close to the figures you listed.

 

Where are you getting that he projects like Pence? Pence has a terrible obp and plate discipline. Singleton hung around .400 obp in AAA.

My only point is that even a scrub like Pence gets $18 mil in this market.

 

Yeah, Singleton is no Pence. Singleton is a plus power, high OBP guy.

 

What are the incentives in the deal?

I know the deal is 5 yrs 10 mil plus three team option years that would push it too 35 mil but how much could that increase if say he makes an all-star team, wins MVP, etc

 

I believe 35 is the max.

 

He is more likely to become Hunter Pence than Prince Fielder($40mil arbitration money + $25 starting salary in FA contract). If Fielder's your bar, then no, I don't think Singleton will reach that.

 

He doesn't need to be prince fielder to get more than $35 mil in the arbitration years plus one free agent year.

 

Actually considering Fielder's deal was a few years ago and Singleton would hit free agency in six years, the way salaries are skyrocketing Singleton could very well make Fielder money if he's a borderline all-star type player.

 

Fielder only made $58mil through year 1 of his FA as a top-5 hitter for most of his career up to that point. I was adjusting for inflation and the fact that Singleton has almost no chance to become Prince Fielder.

 

Fielders ops has been .900.

Singleton can't do that?

 

His OPS through first 7 years of his career was .929 not .900. But whatever... Yes. I'm saying Singleton would not be able to hit .900 OPS over a stretch of the next 8 years.

 

We're not in the steroid era any longer. Singleton doesn't need a .929 OPS.