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Anyone who is interested I'm up $871.44 for the year, here are my bets on bodog.com UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Jon "Bones" Jones: While most folks thought they'd be seeing Jon "Bones" Jones in a title shot in the near future, no one realized how near that future was on February 5th. Having left the cage as the victor against Ryan Bader, Jones immediately went back to training, this time with sights set on the Light Heavyweight title. This is a huge fight in the grand scheme of things, as Jones is easily the biggest star to break out in the sport in the last year, and has one of the highest ceilings. While he's looked offensively amazing in recent fights, he still has some of the defensive flaws of a new fighter, and this is a tough fight to take on little notice. What it all boils down to is the takedown of Jones though, and unless Shogun has improved a thousand fold in this department, he'll be taken down and abused throughout this fight. Look for Jones to come out cautious, but get this fight to the mat as often as it takes, finishing via ground and pound in the second round. Erik "New Breed" Koch -160 Risk US$ 17.39 To Win US$ 10.87 4 Team Parlay (very good chance of occurring) ...Joseph Benavidez -525 Brendan "The Hybrid" Schaub -270 Urijah "The California Kid" Faber -500 Jon "Bones" Jones -185 Risk US$ 11.27 to win US$ 22.72 Gleison Tibau -150 Risk US$ 5.00 To Win US$ 3.33 Mike "Quicksand" Pyle +145 Risk US$ 3.33 To Win US$ 4.83 Luis "Banha" Artur Cane Jr. -175 Risk US$ 5.00 To Win US$ 2.86 Nate "The Great" Marquardt -340 Risk US$ 3.40 To Win US$ 1.00 Brendan "The Hybrid" Schaub -270 Risk US$ 27.00 To Win US$ 10.00 Urijah Faber wins inside distance -165 Risk US$ 5.00 To Win US$ 3.03 Jon "Bones" Jones -185 Risk US$ 20.00 To Win US$ 10.81
This is a good post. I've thought about these things as well, it's possible Shogun's experience wins him this fight. Yes, it could be a great learning tool for Jones, I just think he's too much of a freak, to lose. I like both fighters a great deal and wouldn't be disappointed in a Rua victory. I just want this fight to live up to the hype. Still, calling a Bones win.
Three things are wrong here 1. Is that people who like to kick alot can't or have trouble doing that against (Leg kicks especially) wrestlers because throwing a kick leaves them open to being taken down. 2. It will be hard to throw kicks when stuck in a clinch. Jackson will have Jones doing two things when the fight is on the feet, Clinch and looking for trip takedowns. Bones being the bigger man will have no problem closing in and clinching. 3. Shogun in the past has not come back the same from Knee Surgeries, looking at him lose to out of all people Forrest Griffon and MARK COLEMAN(well he didnt lose but he looked bad, I count it as a loss because I lost respect) exposes that weakness. Shogun just came off of major knee surgery, and while he might believe he is 100% healthy those things tend to change during a fight.
I wouldn't put much stock into those Rua fights, he was clearly not healthy. Rua looked fantastic in both Machida fights, personally I think he's back. Anyone doubting Rua possibly winning isn't paying attention. That said, I've stated several times in this thread, Bones Jones is a monster and is getting better and better. It's a bit early for him getting this shot but I fully expect him to win and hold this title for a longtime.
I'm not saying it's impossible for Rua to win, EVERYONE has a punchers chance which is why it's stupid to ever bet on people when the odds are like -800 and you think it's free money because 'it's impossible' for the other guy to win. You have to put stock in history, now whether it's credible stock or not because time's do change. I'm saying history combined with the 1 and 2 put this fight out of reach aside for 'Punchers Chance' Not to mention like I said above, Rua is prone to being taken down and with an exaggerated BJJ game further puts this fight in Jone's corner. and btw I'm not saying Shoguns BJJ game isn't good because it good but to say it's great is stupid- he is no where near the Maia's and Jacare's or even near the tier under them in the sport. Especially off his back. It's also not like Jone's is a slouch of BJJ himself, he credible and good enough to make the BJJ game almost obsolete.
Shogun has way more than a "puncher's chance". People are way way way overrating Jones at this point it's ridiculous.
I think it's the other way around I think too many people are overrating Shoguns ability, styles make fights and Shoguns style plays perfectly into Jone's game. Jones is an explosive unorthodox wrestler while Shogun is a very Aggressive and powerful striker who also has the patience to counterstrike when needed. He is not a great wrestler and his BJJ is also good but not Great.. Anyone who thinks this fight will be a standing war or even be kept at a distance to favor Shoguns striking is stupid, the only chance Rua has is 'catching Jones' thus a Punchers Chance. Jones height and Reach will make it too difficult for this fight not to be closed off into the clinch and ground. Now in the Clinch his height and Lankyness will make it very difficult for Rua to push off or get quality knee strikes in because he will be exposed to strikes back and trip takedowns, Jone's unorthadox style will be takedown attempts Rua hasn't seen either. Rua has two chances in this fight- A punchers chance before the clinch and the oppurtunity to outlast Jones after Jones energy is spent if the fight makes it past the 3rd. Honestly I believe people are jumping on the Shogun hype train and being conned to throw money on him with the belief he is 'being overlooked and Jones overhyped' meaning a great gamble. You see it in the stock market with companies and in sports betting. However this is extremely untrue and is why the odds for this fight are sooo close. I've seen it a thousand times That line is also thrown out there to promote the fight to be more exciting this it will be. This is why people with experience profit and people are aren't experience in the game lose consistently because they can and will be persuaded by the media or hype as in things being much closer then they really indeed are.
Shogun just has an amazing fluidity in his striking game, even Machida couldn't even time his right. Their is a reason 16 or his 19 wins have come by TKO/KO. Watch some of his Pride fights to what he is capable of. He dominated Overeem (who is bigger and has a longer reach) twice. I know he isn't as physically imposing as Jones but his foot movement mixed with accurate timing and speed make him a beast. I don't consider Jones as fluid in the standup but his freakish length coupled with unorthodox striking will give anyone problems. He also probably has the best wrestling in the LHW division. I'm not going underestimate any of these guys, I really can't predict a winner right now.
Shogun has incredibly weak takedown defense, and he's going against one of UFC's more impressive takedown artists. I honestly think the only way he wins this fight is by an early KO.
He has knack for getting back on his feet when taken down, and he's always threatening off his back so don't sell him short on the ground. That said, Jones is an absolute monster in top control so I'm not sure if this will come into play..
Shogun hype train? how's that possible, all I ever hear for this fight is Bones this Bones that, Bones is the future, Bones too lanky for him, Shogun won't do anything after the knee surgery. I think Shogun does have weak TDD, but once on the ground he is pretty experienced and can get up from it. I mean Jones took Bader down, but Bader still managed to get up from it.
It really is part of research and why I find myself profitable in the industry. When the fight was first announced it was very conclusive among MMA forums that 'Jones will win' with the occasionally chirp from old Pride fans that 'No he wont', threads did not last long. Jones fans are very outspoken though, now suddenly after a few UFC Promo's and after more fans have jumped onto the Jones bandwagon more and more fans are jumping on Shoguns wagon because they think this fight is alot closer (only because Jones has been so hyped up) and Jones is so 'over hyped'. Now those threads are pretty equal and drag on for pages between 'who is better and will win' It also shows up in betting lines as Jones opened at well over -200. I didn't lay my bets then because I knew it would drop and it has to below -200 which further validates that Shogun in getting too hyped weirdly because fans believe that Jones is "Over hyped'. Now the lines didn't drop in more of Shoguns favor until the arguments took off, Jones overhyped has overhyped Shogun oddly. Think if 'all you ever hear about is Jones winning' then 1. You don't read MMA threads and the arguments taking place and 2. His line would have kept raising in favor of him winning istead of dropping in favor of him losing which is happening. BTW if you didn't know lines drop and raise when more bets are placed on each side. In other words everyone clamored over Jones nuts in the beginning but after hardcore fans released their fury on forums and went on and on they have persuaded more in more with the false belief that Shogun has this easily which is why now everyone clamoring on Rua's nuts making Jones a bargain. It's a fight, black in white don't make it more difficult then it should be 9 times out of 10 Jones takes this. People always try to make it more difficult then it should be which is why I like MMA betting over NFL, NBA and other sports. Experience is but a thing, once someone has over 6 fights under their belt experience doesn't play as big of a role as one thinks. Shogun shouldn't have won the grand pre at 23 over all the 'experienced' better fighters however his style of fight meshed perfectly and he won which is the same reason Jones who happens to be also 23 should win this fight. Bader also got taken down again after getting up, also Bader has legit wrestling credentials and it is his base style.
Ha, he's come along way since his "Angry Johnny" days... <iframe title="YouTube video player" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/KxJqrUHs5yI" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="390" width="480"></iframe>
