John Lucas III 1st start: 25 pts, 8 reb, 8 ast, 1 stl

PPS is one of my favorite metrics because it is simple and quick to calculate. However, I have been studying Kevin Martin's game lately and been trying to analyze just how offensively efficient he really is and how efficient he has been in light of the fact that some of those flops are no calls and turn in to turnovers on the other end.

Since it is being brought up here, I'm gonna throw this out and somebody tell me if it is already a metric.

[Total Points + (Assists x 2)]/[FGA + (FTA/2) + TOs + Assists] = My Personal Possession Productivity Efficiency Stat


I don't know what to call it technically. Don't know how close it mimicks efg or ADJ or PER or EFF or any other efficiency stat, but basically it's a dirty PRODUCTION PER POSSESSION for a player. Just something I can figure up fairly quickly that give me an idea of how productive and efficient a player is when the ball is in his hands because it includes shots and free throws (most FTs are on the ball fouls), and includes assists and turnovers as part of the possessions. I know I'm not including how many three point plays are a part of the Free throw attempts and how many 3 point shots are a result of the assists but I kinda figured they probably offset somewhat for the purposes of figuring possessions.

Thoughts?

 

By the way John Wall is looking to have a breakout year...

 

Yep. That's the big thing I love about it, because it indirectly clues you in on true efficiency as a scorer.

You want guys that can nail 3s, obviously, but it's underrated from the fan side how important it is to have an And-1 machine. Guys with contact-allergies that overdribble on the perimeter and jack up 20+ footers can kill a team - feast or famine relying on those jumpers to fall plus long rebounds igniting fast breaks the other way.

Take that versus guys that can go strong to the whole and finish (in his prime Paul Pierce or Shaq). One, you've got a high percentage shot. Two, you've got the FT. Three, you're getting the other team in foul trouble (affecting their aggressiveness on D) and helping your guys get into the bonus. Fourth, those misses are still golden opportunity tip ins.

Check out the PPS metric towards the end of a season (or in career stats). You're going to keep seeing those And-1 machines in there. You're going to keep seeing volume shooting, scared to take it to the rim pretenders waffling well below 1.3 pps.

And I'll further guarantee that every coach in the league would kill to have the high PPS guys while wishing he could amnesty the lowest ones.

Last year's top PPS

• Dwight Howard
• Nene Hilario
• Chauncy Billups
• Kevin Martin
• Paul Pierce
• Kevin Love
• Dirk Nowitzki
• Emeka Okafor
• LeBron James
• Kevin Durant

Bottom PPS

• Joe Johnson
• Michael Beasely
• Andrew Bogut
• CJ Miles
• Brandon Jennings
• Tayshaun Prince
• Tyreke Evans
• Trevor Ariza
• Rajon Rondo
• OJ Mayo

It's by no means an infallible measure of who's "better"...but it's a much better measure than PPG, which too many fans are married to.

 

We got Terrell Harris doing work down in Miami too!

 

I have often thought that there could be an improved metric on a player's offensive contribution/detriment. I wish the following were recorded: track the assist that leads to the assist, track the assisted visit to the charity stripe (weighted for FT%), and subtract the assisted turnovers (passes that directly lead to a TO - measured in the same way you do an assisted basket). Ultimately, you need to watch film and ding a guy for every open look he passes up - in a 24 second clock, those seem to be the biggest causes that lead to turnovers. If you got 1 pt for each assisted assist, then you'd lose one for each open look passed up. But that type of metric would be impossible to track (heck, if noone is counting the assisted tos and fts, so are they).

Also, I would not count last second of the shot-clock/game-clock shots against a players shooting percentage (made or missed). As it is, it penalizes players that get shorter burn on the court that are savvy enough to see the clock winding down - I saw this happen to Ish Smith last year for you guys on several occasions and thought it always skewed his already poor shooting percentage further down. But it goes way beyond him, seems like guys that get very little court time will often have an 0-3 night or the like but if you watched the game, only one might be a quality shot missed, the others was a shot clock scramble and the end of the half.

On the defensive side, the guy that blocks out well enough to cause a team or other player's rebound, that should be a partial rebound (assisted rebound) for that player. At the end, if you have a center that blocks out to let a guard continually clean up defensive boards, the stat sheet will give a very compelling argument that a PG was all over the glass. Same thing goes for tap out rebounds. To me, those things are what we always say aren't on the stat sheet but I wish they would be (but admittedly, they might be open to interpretation - not like a missed shot turned into an assist hasn't been too).

 

JL3 followed it up with a 0p (0/3FG) night