I saw that TSMC and Intel's new fabs in AZ are estimated to create 4-5k direct permanent high-tech jobs. Haven't read about the other locations yet. A big part of the reason is the CHIPS act - "The bill authorizes the U.S. government to award U.S. chipmakers with about $52 billion in grants and other incentives and provide a 25% investment tax credit for new fabs worth up to $24 billion." - Link Automation is a big topic on its own. I have a few thoughts on it in other threads. Generally, there is an inflection point where labor will be so automated that most manufacturing sites can be anywhere (whatever gov gives them the best value - cost, protection, right). No one knows when that is and how fast that transition will happen. I'm guessing it's not too far in the distance and the transition will be very abrupt. There is going to be much pain and political turmoil if not handled - and to me, you want to invest heavily in education to prepare the people for the future type of jobs (won't be the long hours of mundane labor, but something that is much more flexible, challenging, rewarding and requires much higher skills and creativity) and modernize our system to share the benefit of technology advancement, cost reduction, higher productivity - that can be in the form of fewer hours per workers and a living baseline for all.
The issue for me is a $35B (fully completed) gigafab spanning several football fields that employs an est. 4-5K permanent high-tech jobs. Same numbers, diff perspective. With automation, instead of 100 workers and a mgmt chain around a department, it's more like 10 workers supervising the robots with a tighter cross-org mgmt chain around these departments.
And I believe you said that plays a part in the reasons why they are coming back to the US. Relative to why these fabs started going oversea years ago, I would absolutely agree because of less advanced robotics and cheaper labors oversea in those years. Relative to where new fabs should be built today and in the future, I would only slightly agree. Unlike 15+ years ago, the cost of high-tech workers is not that different globally and as you said, automation has reduced overall labor needs. Because of that trend, the gov incentive (among other gov policies) plays a bigger part today and more so in the future.
Yes. Given my weird nature for seeking balance, I'm concerned that reshoring our factories is Mission Accomplished for both sides, when it's really about jerb quality and consistency. We just gave away hundreds of Billions to a handful of companies who routinely make Billions in profits year over year because our domestic chip production capability is pathetic and lagging (possibly because EE is not as lucrative or glamorous as IT for what the work and demands entail). Such a blatant transfer of wealth from poor to rich is a sign and continuation of complacent mediocrity in the guise of creating, let alone maintaining, workers. I mean it's great factories are coming back, but we can't let politicians pretend everything is "as it was", especially now that populist movements are keen to having more meat from the bones thrown at the top of the table.
I see fabs (chip makers) as a foundation for everything from your toaster oven to high-tech medical equipment (and of course advanced military weaponry). It's not just about jobs (many of today's quality jobs will be automated away anyway), it's a critical infrastructure of an advanced society. It's as foundational to our future as food is foundational to our basic needs (the gov gives billions away to make sure we have enough food for the US). That foundation is required for modern society to flourish and bring in new type of high-quality jobs. Without that foundation here, we would be dependent on others (China for example). Thus, I'm very supportive of the government "give away" / spending here - it's a critical investment for our future. Micron to bring microchip plant to upstate New York | AP News Micron, one of the world’s largest microchip manufacturers, announced Tuesday it would open a semiconductor plant in upstate New York, promising a long-term investment of up to $100 billion and a plant that could bring 50,000 jobs to the state. The company was lured to the Syracuse area with help from a generous set of federal, state and local incentives, including up to $5.5 billion in state tax credits over 20 years. Companies like Micron manufacture the diminutive chips that power everything from smartphones to computers to automobiles. The federal bill was aimed at bolstering U.S. competitiveness against China and avoiding another chip shortage like the one that derailed the automobile and technology industries during the pandemic.
Everything can be an investment, especially critical industries we ban China from entering. For example, we prohibit ASML from selling any bleeding edge EUV lithography machines to China. It essentially locks their chips a generation or two behind until they catch up organically. They're still catching up though. A big reason why they were catching up is that the same companies that benefitted from the chips act played into China's gains in semis. Huawei (alongside Apple) used to be among TSMC's biggest customers for bleeding edge chips. It was seen a natural part of a globalized economy, much like Cisco and other tech giants building and upgrading China's oppressive firewall. Your comparison to ag subsidies is apt. It is a crucial bottomline, but we're also enabling waste and excess. We enable false promises in hopes black swans don't happen again. The whole "chip shortage" issue came about because chip fabrication has an extremely thin profit margin with winner-takes-all stakes. "Car parts" are not bleeding edge, but it all trickles down. If covid-lockdown expects half of your demand to plummet within 3 months for two years, it was not like baking less cakes and hope the flour and eggs don't rot in the meantime. Fabbing semiconductors requires a ridiculously efficient supply chain where several different countries took part to achieve a final product. So yeah, we're kinda locked into giving money, if only to make-good for the revenue they lost from our growing Chinese Cold War. Outside of sustaining hopes of preserving the status quo, I doubt the American people will see any direct gains from it though. Cheaper chips? Tech giants and bitcoin farmers will eat that up. Less "China disruption" from the supply chain? Most of the bleeding edge fabs will come from Taiwan, S. Korea and maybe sometimes Japan. Not exactly the closest or safest locations to provide me cheap PS5s.
this was from Mar 2021 this is for Jan 2023 The U.S. labor market clocked a shockingly strong month in January, adding 517,000 jobs and dipping down to 3.4 percent unemployment, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department. The numbers blew past expectations. Analysts were projecting an increase of around 185,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to edge up to 3.6 percent. In December,
It’s just my personal experience but I will tell you I’ve actually had a really good year this year (FYE in March) and my business revolves around organizations expanding their sales teams which means they are expecting growth. The largest industry by far I’ve seen making huge strides are US based heavy machinery/ construction/ energy. Tech has prior been the #1 driver of our revenue. You can’t tell me that the carrot of the infrastructure bill isn’t having an effect here or at least helping right now when all models show we would normally be retracting.
The Labor Department’s jobs report for June, released this morning, showed the economy adding 209,000 jobs and the unemployment rate staying at 3.6 percent. This is a slight slowing of recent job growth trends. It would be hard to imagine a better jobs report both for the Biden administration and to temper the Fed’s campaign to douse the recovery. Real wages are up slightly, while inflation keeps subsiding. As President Biden pointed out in a statement just released by the White House, "This is Bidenomics in action: Our economy added … a total of 13.2 million jobs since I took office. That’s more jobs added in two and a half years than any president has ever created in a four-year term. The unemployment rate has now remained below 4 percent for 17 months in a row—the longest stretch since the 1960s."
These are the kitchen table talking points that they need shout from the roof top..........be proud of this
Jobs are up, wages less so – and lower purchasing power could still lead the US into a recession https://theconversation.com/jobs-ar...uld-still-lead-the-us-into-a-recession-212678
consider the source, https://theconversation.com/jobs-ar...uld-still-lead-the-us-into-a-recession-212678, such as it is on the other of the spectrum, this is how a reputable business news outlet , Bloomberg, summarizes the Aug 2023 job data . Fed-Friendly Jobs Scenario Boosts Odds That US Will Avert Recession Overall, the new jobs data revisions support the soft-landing thesis for the economy, as the labor market is easing without major layoffs and wage dips. While there was less demand in many sectors (including a continued drop in the level of temporary workers), more people joined the labor market in August -- including the highest number of new entrants since 2019. The participation rate for prime-age workers also rebounded. This seems like an ideal report for the Federal Reserve. Wage gains are coming down and payrolls are rising but at a much slower pace. Central bankers have highlighted the strength in the labor market as a key challenge in getting price growth to cool. but this kind of jobs report is more evidence for analysts calling for a hold in interest rather than hike.
Every expert and media head has been predicting a recession, but it refuses to materialize. No worries, there is still time for things to turn around.
