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JJ Watt/Von Miller DPOY?

Discussion in 'Houston Texans' started by tmacfor35, Nov 26, 2012.

  1. tmacfor35

    tmacfor35 Contributing Member

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    Each week, thanks to play-by-play game dissection by ProFootballFocus.com, I'll look at one important matchup or individual performance metric from one of the Sunday games.

    If the last six weeks of the 2012 season play out similarly to the first 10, the defensive story of the season could well be two sophomore defensive players: Texans defensive end J.J. Watt and Broncos linebacker Von Miller. Their play has been so outstanding that the question might not be which deserves the Defensive Player of the Year award, but are either worthy of the MVP? I asked Neil Hornsby of ProFootballFocus.com to break down their play to try to answer those questions:

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/peter_king/11/26/Week-12/index.html

    The end the writer declares this matchup..... A coinflip.
    I can't stand how defensive players are held so accountable by sack numbers. Miller is a one trick pony compared to Watt. It must also help having Dume on the other side as well, just like Aldon Smith has Justin Smith on his line.

    Then again, if Watt keeps this franatic pace up, is he a lock for MVP?
    Peyton vs JJ at this point
     
  2. The Real Shady

    The Real Shady Contributing Member

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    Right now I think that the passes defensed stat is the deference maker for Watt.

    JJ Watt:
    54 Tackles
    14.5 Sacks
    2 Fumbles Recovered
    14 Passes Defensed
    11 Tackles for Loss

    Von Miller:
    47 Tackles
    14 Sacks
    4 Forced Fumbles
    1 Passes Defensed
    12 Tackles for loss

    Aldon Smith:
    48 Tackles
    16.5 Sacks
    2 Forced Fumbles
    1 Fumble Recovered
    4 Passes Defensed
    1 Tackle for Loss
     
  3. SuperBeeKay

    SuperBeeKay Member

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    lol a LB with 47 tackles in the lead for DPOY? How well does Miller play coverage as LB?
     
  4. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Absolutely not.

    Right now MVP is between Manning and Brady. RGIII may be in 3rd, with only his team's record holding him back. I expect Watt & Peterson to receive a couple votes.

    Watt is clear DPOY, with Smith & Jennings ahead of Miller.
     
  5. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    As a pass rushing OLB, he isn't expected to rack up huge tackle numbers. He's having a great season, and is a great player, but Watt is doing something never seen by a 3-4 end in NFL history. His passes batted might be the greatest of any DL in history.
     
  6. Fulgore

    Fulgore Member

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    Foster should get some consideration also. He will get over 1500 yds, 20+ tds and #1 seed in AFC.
     
  7. emjohn

    emjohn Contributing Member

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    He's already broken the league record for a D-Lineman. And we've got another 5 games to play.
     
  8. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    Peter King in a nutshell. He sets out to answer his own question, seems to arrive at a fairly obvious conclusion*, and then can't bring himself to actually state an opinion.

    Oh, by the way, he's America's most popular football writer. Geez...


    * He grades them in 4 categories: 1) playing time... wait, what? Seems oddly unimportant. But he determines the category is even - which, technically, is true. But then he starts breaking down things that have nothing to do with playing time and makes a pretty clear case that Watt has the edge in terms of dominance despite playing out of position and being schemed against; 2) gives Watt a big edge in run defense; 3) as well as the edge in pass coverage, despite the fact Watt doesn't actually, you know, cover anybody; 4) gives Miller the edge in pass rushing.
     
  9. tmacfor35

    tmacfor35 Contributing Member

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    An edge in pass rushing when Watt has him beat in sacks while going up against double teams from interior lineman? Miller has a few sacks off free pash rush opportunities. There is nothing close about this comparison.
     
  10. moligity

    moligity Contributing Member

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    Peter King also picked Brooks Reed for pre-season DPOY. His predictions don't come with much thought. He's all about a narrative.

    He might have been credible back in the day; right now he's a clown.
     
  11. London'sBurning

    London'sBurning Contributing Member

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    I'm not a football guru like some of you here but I think what's been so impressive with Watt's stats is that he does it in clutch moments. He's gotten sacks and contributed to stops when the Texans really needed them if they had any hope for a comeback in recent games. He's like a clutch Olajuwon block against John Starks in the NBA Finals. It's unreal how he steps up when the Texans defense needs him most.
     
  12. RunninRaven

    RunninRaven Contributing Member
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    Did you read the meat of the article? It actually uses statistics to make this comparison and while I think JJ is an amazing pass rusher and probably has to work harder for his sacks than Miller (who is more difficult to double team), when he broke down the QB disruptions versus the opportunities to rush the passer, Von Miller was disrupting the QB (getting a sack, a hurry, QB knockdown, etc) on like 20% of his opportunities versus just 12% from JJ. I still think Watt is the better defensive player and far more valuable, but I think a case can be made for Von Miller being the better pass rusher.
     
  13. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Well there you go. Short of an injury, it is hard to imagine anyone else winning DPOY. Bigger question is can he make it unanimous.
     
  14. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    It is a faulty discussion because the play different positions. Watt is rushing the passer on every pass play. Of course he is going to have a lower percentage than a Linbacker. Compare Watt to any other 3-4 DE, and it won't be close.
     
  15. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    Yes - but it's like discussing pass defense and concluding Jonathan Joseph is a better defender than JJ Watt. Of course he is! Von Miller, who is a very nice player, does one thing excpetionally well: he rushes the passer. That's his job. But that an interior linemen is even in the conversation, to me, almost invalidates the statitcial advantage Miller might have. Miller is great doing that one thing; Watt is nearly as great doing a bunch of other things with no inherent advantage (in terms of where and how he's lined up).

    JJ Watt is so clearly the best defensive player in football, it's mind-bottling there's even a debate. But knuckleheads like Peter King - who view these awards in a BCS-like fashion, where his opinion is literally changed week-to-week in a "what have you done for me lately" reaction to the most recent game - has to fill pages. And so he instigates a debate, posts overwhelming data that favors Watt... and then takes a coward's out by ignoring his own work and declaring it a coin flip.

    He's absolutely worthless.
     
  16. tallanvor

    tallanvor Contributing Member

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    What does it say that Watt, Smith, and Miller are all in their second year? Why are all the best defensive players so young?
     
  17. ima_drummer2k

    ima_drummer2k Contributing Member

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    I can't believe what Watt is doing from the DE position. He's piling up stats that only the elite pass-rushing OLB's can pile up...from the DE position. That's what makes his year unbelievable to me.

    I remember when Buddy Ryan came to the Oilers and was going to install his 46 defense (which is basically a variation of the 3-4). Ray Childress, a perennial pro-bowl DE, was complaining about moving to DE in the 3-4 saying it would be impossible to make plays and all you do is open up lanes for the LB's to make plays. I think Antonio Smith said the same thing about Son of Bum coming in a few years ago.

    I guess someone forgot to give Watt the memo.
     
  18. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Charles Tillman, DeMarcus Ware, Darelle Revis, Tim Jennings, etc.

    Lots of good veterans as well. 3 elite pass rushers out of one draft is pretty incredible.
     
  19. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    And big-time 4-3 ends. I wonder what the sack record for a 3-4 DE is. I'd guess he already broke it.
     
  20. vinsensual

    vinsensual Member

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    When Wade arrived, some held the slim hope that Mario would be the next coming of Bruce Smith, who has a season high 19 sacks. Watt's already head and shoulders above the former best 3-4 DE currently playing, Justin Smith. Watt's currently on pace to beat B.Smith's 19 sacks as well.
     

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