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Jeremy Lin

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by jbasket, Feb 8, 2012.

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  1. maverick4231

    maverick4231 Member

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  2. soulsong999

    soulsong999 Member

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    I think from an undrafted, unguaranteed player to getting game plans designed just to defend him by the "best" team with supposedly the "best" player(s), and be compared to the greats, that in itself is fascinating and remarkable.

    I am excited to see how Lin can bounce back and learn from this.

    Ss999
     
  3. maverick4231

    maverick4231 Member

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  4. magnetik

    magnetik Member

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  5. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Member

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    I think you're splitting hairs on style of play. When I made the comparison to Brooks, it was on the basis of a team finding a morale-boosting savior in a young, offense-minded point guard. In that way, Lin and Brooks are similar. And, I wouldn't be surprised to see Lin's story take a similar trajectory as Brooks'. Fortunately for both of them, it's not over and Brooks still has a chance to come back and find his place in the NBA. But their relative sizes, or what shots they take, or whatever -- that's marginalia to the larger story of what these players mean or meant to their teams.
     
  6. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    HP, I don't get it. If you don't pass much, you don't lose the ball much. You can't just look at the FGA number and say a guy is a volume shooter. Brooks shoots a LOT of jumpers and he attempts a LOT less passing. Lin's "volume shooting" is mostly inside the paint. Lin's style is attack the basket and either go for a layup or pass. Brooks is more like Francis. When he drives, he's pretty much on a one-track mind going for score. (Same as Iverson, BTW)

    Brooks and Iverson are scorers in PG bodies. Lin is a classic passing PG. He needed to score a lot only because he was the best scorer out there. After Melo and Amare have been back, his scoring, assist and turnover numbers are all down because his usage rate is down.

    His low A/T ratio is due to high TO rate, not low assist rate. High assist rate means he is a pass-first PG. His high TO rate means he is not comparable to the great PGs' efficiency. He probably never will be one of the best PGs in the game. But for a young inexperienced PG, if I had to choose between low assist and high TO, I'd choose high TO every day. You can learn to limit TO through experience. You can't learn court vision and play making instinct.
     
  7. Icehouse

    Icehouse Member

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    No. Not when the season is 82 games. The sample size is too small to be definitive about anything but it does look like he can score. But just for comparison, Ariza's jumper looked much improved during the 2009 postseason. Then we signed him and you know the rest.
     
  8. htownrox1

    htownrox1 Member

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    111 pages. Wow.
     
  9. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    And I could say Lin WILL shoot more 3s if he knows what is good for him, and he practices them enough to shoot like Brooks from 3.

    You have to know your limits. JVG could have green-lit VSpan to penetrate and jump in the air at will. I'm sure he would have put up high assists with high TOs, too..., but high volume turnovers will get you benched. Most coaches don't allow that.

    So, Lin will have to learn to calm down or get vastly better at court vision and passing. Let's say his Ast/gm is fool's gold right now, in that only D'Antoni would be allowing this.

    Brooks learned to shoot more from 3s at a higher rate to help Yao. And he still penetrated a lot, considering he had the best offensive center in the league. He got more efficient. Lin becoming more efficient might force him to learn 3s and less VSpan style drives ... making his style converge more with Brooks.

    They have nearly identical FGAs. Lin's up to 3.0 3pt attempts per game now. Brook shot 6 something 3s/gm, but only have to practice it more to shoot 40% from 3. No matter how you slice it, compared to Kidd, Nash, Rondo and Rubio ... they are high volume shooters for PGs.

    bottomline: I will concede that Brooks isn't a great comparison. I would say Parker is a better one, but Lin has to shoot better and drive more under control for that comparison. My point is Brook is a better comparison than any comparison to Nash, Kidd, Rondo and Rubio .
     
    #2209 heypartner, Feb 24, 2012
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2012
  10. CoolColJ

    CoolColJ Member

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  11. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Member

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    I think Brooks is a good comparison to Lin in terms of how they both dribble the ball a lot and look to score.

    But Lin seems to get to the line a lot more and also get more rebounds, assists, and steals.

    Maybe he's a smarter version of Stephon Marbury or Steve Francis.
     
  12. francis 4 prez

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    i think this is largely because of the way TOV% is calculated. on b-r.com, it's 100*TOV/(FGA+.44*FTA+TOV). this doesn't take into account assists at all, which kidd, nash, and rondo get a lot of relative to FGA. so basically they are racking up turnovers from attempting to get assists and yet those don't count in their possessions, which seems ridiculous to me from a TOV% perspective. even when assists are accounted for i think they only use .33*AST.

    i looked at the 70 guys who have taken at least 300 FGA and have a FGA/AST ratio >2 (i.e. shooters). they have an average TOV% of 12.0%. then i looked at the 25 guys with at least 75 AST and a FGA/AST ratio <2 (i.e. passers). they have an average TOV% of 19.6%. so as you would expect, passers are penalized.

    while it would be hard to calculate, they should have some sort of "attempted assists" component to usage rate. if you just go with something simplistic like 2*AST (assuming people shoot about 50% on assisted shots), the TOV% difference between the shooters and passers goes from 7.6% to 1%, which to me is how it should be as i would think any large group of players are about equally turnover prone while doing their jobs.

    when you throw that 2*AST number in there, lin ends up with the highest TOV% of any of the 25 passers and is 3rd worst out of the 95 shooters and passers (this doesn't include everyone in the league obviously but 3rd out of a group of 95 shows his turnover percentage is really bad). he also ends up almost 30% worse than nash and rondo (13.0% to 10.1%).

    Code:
    Player Name	Adj TOV%
    Luis Scola	13.14
    D Cousins	13.04
    Jeremy Lin	12.97
    Hedo Turkoglu	12.62
    Earl Watson	12.40
    Iman Shumpert	12.26
    Jason Kidd	11.91
    Chris Duhon	11.91
    Brandon Knight	11.62
    John Wall	11.58
    R Westbrook	11.36
    Paul George	11.30
    Al Harrington	11.23
    Goran Dragic	11.13
    Kris Humphries	11.08
    Kevin Durant	10.78
    Raymond Felton	10.77
    Ricky Rubio	10.72
    Kyrie Irving	10.59
    DeMar DeRozan	10.59
    Devin Harris	10.54
    Greivis Vasquez	10.50
    Leandro Barbosa	10.43
    Beno Udrih	10.42
    Rudy Gay	10.34
    Deron Williams	10.16
    Ray Allen	10.14
    Gerald Wallace	10.14
    Steve Nash	10.14
    Rajon Rondo	10.10
    David Lee	10.05
    Jordan Crawford	9.89
    Jameer Nelson	9.88
    Paul Pierce	9.84
    Kevin Garnett	9.75
    Josh Smith	9.67
    Andre Miller	9.62
    Kobe Bryant	9.59
    Kevin Love	9.57
    MarShon Brooks	9.52
    O.J. Mayo	9.48
    Kyle Lowry	9.46
    D.J. Augustin	9.36
    James Harden	9.34
    Tyreke Evans	9.33
    LeBron James	9.33
    Marco Belinelli	9.22
    Carmelo Anthony	9.19
    Anthony Morrow	9.18
    Nicolas Batum	9.18
    Jason Terry	9.00
    Blake Griffin	8.93
    Marcus Thornton	8.91
    Monta Ellis	8.90
    Caron Butler	8.90
    Ramon Sessions	8.86
    Mo Williams	8.82
    Jrue Holiday	8.79
    Jeff Teague	8.77
    Jamal Crawford	8.73
    Derek Fisher	8.72
    David West	8.59
    Mike Conley	8.42
    Ty Lawson	8.19
    Rodney Stuckey	8.09
    Shawn Marion	8.07
    Andre Iguodala	8.02
    Arron Afflalo	8.02
    Dwyane Wade	7.98
    Danny Granger	7.96
    Darren Collison	7.91
    Paul Millsap	7.88
    Luol Deng	7.84
    Luke Ridnour	7.73
    Jared Dudley	7.72
    Derrick Rose	7.72
    Kemba Walker	7.63
    Kevin Martin	7.62
    Jarrett Jack	7.55
    B Jennings	7.27
    L Aldridge	7.18
    Nick Young	7.08
    Tony Parker	6.93
    Dirk Nowitzki	6.63
    Joe Johnson	6.55
    Jose Calderon	6.43
    Chris Paul	6.36
    Wesley Matthews	6.24
    J.J. Redick	6.09
    Tayshaun Prince	5.28
    Al Jefferson	5.05
    Antawn Jamison	4.98
    Louis Williams	4.79
    Thaddeus Young	4.69
    Ryan Anderson	4.09
    
     
  13. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    I know Payton was asked to make a comparison, but Stockton does not really jive with the rest of the article where Payton is teaching Lin how to attack the basket and shoot long range...how to look to score....with cockiness, like himself.

    Do you know Stockton had 15 years where he had more Ast/gm than FGA/gm. Do you know Stockton never had a year where he had more than 11.3 FGA/gm. Lin is already around 16 (depending if you count his pre-discovery games), and will have to change his game a lot to be a Stockton-style facilitator.
     
  14. TheShooter

    TheShooter Member

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    Do you mean Aaron Brooks? You kidding me Li is nothing like Brooks. Aaron is a very fast PG who tends to shoot a lot especially from the long range. Li is more of a passer and isn't really athletic (he is more athletic than people think though). He makes the good plays and see the floor well.
     
  15. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Member

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    I said only in terms of how the dribble too much and look to score.
     
  16. lalala902102001

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    Lin is still a pass first PG even though he can score. AB is a combo guard.

    Marbury and Steve both had superior athleticisms. In their primes both were all-star calibre players. Lin is not at that level and may never be due to his average athletic abilities.
     
  17. ch0c0b0fr34k

    ch0c0b0fr34k Member

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    Aaron Brooks dribbles outside of the paint and around the perimeter. Lin dribbles to get inside the paint for easy shots or kick-outs.

    Brooks preferred jump shots more than drives, while Lin prefers the layup. Lin finishes much better than Brooks because he's taller and stronger.

    Brooks is an extreme shoot-first point guard; he only passed when he couldn't get a shot off. Lin goes into modes where he passes alot and when he shoots alot.

    I can see how they're similar, but Lin plays the same style much smarter. While their shooting games are similar, Lin will be a much better passer in the future, something Brooks never really sought to work on.
     
  18. ch0c0b0fr34k

    ch0c0b0fr34k Member

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    Lin is a pass-first point guard that goes through sequences where he feels he must take over, then he becomes far more aggressive (I've seen this work out for him and also cause 2-3 turnovers in a row).
     
  19. Icehouse

    Icehouse Member

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    Well as far as getting to the line more...let's just say he get's calls that Brooks didn't get. Hell, that most don't get till they reach star level. I think everyone can agree on that.
     
  20. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    Fair enough. I agree that he is probably best compared to Tony Parker -- if he gets more efficient. I maintain that Lin is still adjusting to the NBA speed and size. Don't forget Parker shot .419 his first season with a 2.2 A/TO ratio, not exactly spectacular in efficiency.
     

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