Jeremy Lin won't shoot 3pters and it's killing the team.

He's already lost his starting job for playing his brand of basketball. What do you want him to lose next?

 

Utterly delusional stuff... I can't believe people actually believe that McHale would be annoyed at Lin scoring 38 points.

You know that I used to be really annoyed when reading the delusional stuff that Lin haters sprout about how he is a "vet min" player and how he doesn't belong in the league etc...

Now I am not even mad because delusions run both ways and it seems that some of these Lin "fans" (I use the term loosely) are just as out of touch with reality. It is like something from a Stephen King novel.

 

So if you're shooting 55%fgs and 44%3pt shots. I know fgs include 3pt shots but i cbf to find out what the 2pt shot is. Essentially your expected value is

0.55*2 = 1.1 < 0.44*3 = 1.32

Which means you'd rather take 3s, and with your team being the 2nd rebounding team in the league, with the twin towers, you have a larger chance of a second chance opportunity.

This is a big reason why Moreyball incorporates 3s so much.

 

If he's FGa is ranked #26 and his efficiency/percentage is #2, then obviously he is not achieving the optimal tradeoff between equity and efficiency. Obviously I don't have a regression model on his shots and neither do I have his utility functions nor the teams, but just by looking at it I'd say that he should be shooting a percentage of around 48-50% with related elevation in shots taken.

 

Nice try but it doesn't work that way. Basketball is much more nuanced than that. If you went purely on the numbers then why doesn't Lin play 48min. a game and take all the shots as 3pt shots? If he shoots his % we're bound to win. In fact, tell me why, with the best two rebounders in the game (as you pointed out), we got killed on rebounds last two games?

The ebb n flow of the game, the system, injuries, what kind of looks our shooters get... etc etc. All of these things play a part. Statistics (historical data sets) in consideration of a comprehensive set of explanatory variables can only help inform us to make better decisions (forecasts), they cannot tell us the result. Otherwise, we don't need coaches, just computers crunching numbers.

Lin is one of the most efficient scorers in the league at the moment and I'd like to see him maintain that. He's not the problem with our team at the moment so these arguments are just fools gold.

 

No its not. I'm glad you said that it's not. So maybe your argument previously and everyone else's about Lin being the #2 most efficient scorer and about him having more points off drives than 3pt shots are too simple? Maybe the idea that if Lin turns it over its the same as him missing a 3pt shot, as Torocan gladly pointed out is too simple? Maybe the idea that if you set up a play and run 16 seconds down the clock and you swing the ball around and finds a semi open man in Lin but he doesn't shoot the ball and instead is clogged in the lane you only have 10 seconds left and won't be able to find a better shot? When you pass up a semi good shot you are betting that you can find a better shot in the near future. Assuming that you've run the clock down and expended energy, wouldn't you say that if perhaps you DON'T find a better shot that:

1. The run and gun pace of the team is slowed down? Mike D'Antoni famously proposed 7 seconds and less. Now if you pass up open shots aren't you slowing your possessions down bit by bit?

2. If you don't take a 44% 3pt shot when Parsons is shooting low 20%s, Harden is shooting around 30% and Beverley isn't on the floor. Who takes it? Basic standard economic models (albeit not behavioural economics which does take into psychology) states that you make the most rational decision you can, take greater expected values all of the time. So wouldn't it be selfish to not take that shot and instead pass it around.

3. So if you drive into a clogged lane, aren't you ruining the Twin Towers experiment singlehandedly. Because no.1, with the Twin Towers aren't you expecting your offense to flow through 3pt shots, hence why we got Dwight? Since 3pt shooting is 'infectious' and nobody can make shots. Aren't you keeping it to the 'rhythm' of your style by shooting a 3 rather than driving into a clogged lane?

4. If you shoot a 3, you have a greater chance of defending the fast break than if you turn it over in the lane. As Lin is the fastest runner on the team, good at stealing and drawing charges, shouldn't Lin be stopping a fast break from a 3 then being stuck in a lane?

5. If historical data sets cannot help us forecast future values, what can? Assuming that we don't use historical datasets. What datasets do we use?

6. ESPN pointed to us being the 2nd best rebounding team in the league. You say historical data is unreliable yet you use the last two games (actually we outrebounded the Lakers) as proof that we can't rebound? The fact that Dwight and Asik share a floor together, and you'd rather use an anomaly as reason?

The fact that we score the 5th and rebound the 2nd, doesn't mean we should shoot as much as we can and rebound as much as we can?

Actually against the Lakers it was 45-42, we were outrebounded by DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin, by 3. So that is no way indicative of our rebounding against big athletic teams.

 

yeh so Lins shooting pretty good

 

I really don't care enough about Lin to bother responding but you're obviously obsessed by him.

Just trade him already so I don't have to read this garbage anymore.

 

This argument is pointless. It is obvious that he is told to be more of a facilitator and less of a shooter. There has only been one game where he has attempted more than 10 FGA. With a limited attempt per game, he is going to pick and choose shots he is comfortable with to keep his efficiency high. I think he is already planning for his career after HOU.

 

No one should be passing up shots. Lin should be more aggressive. Don't care how important Harden is to the organization, it's his job as a pg. Actually, scratch that, McHale first must reinstate Lin to the starting lineup for Lins words to have any real weight.

 

Lin 3pt% will most likely regress to his mean , which is much lowewr tham 40%. Nobody on the rockets shot 40% last year. The highest 3pt % last year was Garcia and Parsons. Garcia shot 38.6% and Parsons shot 38.5. If Lin regresses to the best three point %age of any Rocket his expected value would be 1.158 a small difference from 1.1. Furthermore, I do not expect Lin to to almost 40%. He will most hid 37% of his 3's at best. That value comes out to be 1.1.
In addition, moving away from pure number,Lin drives to disrupy the offense, kick the ball out to a perimiter shooter for a 3, and spread the floor. Furthermore, he gets and 1's at a high rate with his drives. The Stanford Analytical group ,followed by Morey, states that the layup and the 3 Pt shot are the preferred shots because a layup is such a high percentage shot. Lin's 2 pt percentage includes all 2's, not drives to the basket resulting in a layup. Thus, his drive percentage is most likely higher than his overall 2Pt percentage. Also, if Lin does not hit on the drive
we can also rebound the miss. Our rebounding prowess is not limited to 3 Pt shots. Multiple variables are associated with each shot taken, any any act on the floor. Life is just not that simple as comparing one number to another, That's why we have multiple variable analysis such as multiple regreession.

 

A couple of people associated with competative basketball stated to me last year that Lin takes very few shots. Our team does not need Lin to be a high scored. we have Harden, Howars and Parsons.

 

Exactly my thoughts.

 

That logic only holds if Lin is assuming that Parson's 20% and Harden's 30% is their true shot probability versus short term volatility (normal +-2 sigma). If Lin does not believe that Parsons is truly a 20% shooter and Harden is not a 30% shooter, then the rational decision is to continue with having them take the shots.

If we operate under the assumption that each shot is statistically exclusive from the next shot (IE, getting 5 heads in a row on a coin has no impact on the probability of heads or tails on the next coin flip), then Lin has no statistically logical reason to change his calculations of the value of shooting versus passing versus driving.

The same may apply to Lin. At this point it's really hard to know at what level his 3 point shooting percentage will stabilize. He shot 40% from behind the arc after the All Star Break to the end of the season, and he did work on his jump shot and 3 point shot during the off season, but has Lin seen enough of a sample size for him to feel confident that he will consistently shoot 40%? Enough to do so when he is in a position to potentially be contested? Enough to readjust his balance between driving and shooting?

There's plenty of rational reasons why it may not be advantageous to the team for Lin to remain highly selective in terms of his shots. It's also possible he's being too conservative in his shot selection.

At this point and given the smallish sample size it's hard to be sure, especially this early in the season.

Now, if he's still hitting 3's at a 40% clip 25 or 30 games in and his 3 point attempts aren't increasing, then I think there will be a strong argument for concern.

Until then, we're all really just guessing.

 

So what you are saying is that since Lin has been hitting 3's at about a 40% clip his last 41 games or so, you are saying Lin needs to shoot more threes? I think when Lin doesn't have the ball, he needs to be ready to shoot the three in case the rotation is slow. By shooting more threes when he is open in a catch and shoot situation, he will force a more aggressive close out which will help him drive more. Lin driving helps the Rockets provided the paint isn't already packed after a Harden drive or Howard post up.

 

Lin is and was and will be on a tight leash

 

What I'm saying is that not every 3 is the same. Some are wide open (he should always take those), some are slightly contested (someone 5-6 feet off but *might* be able to close, these are the ones he's passing avoiding somewhat), and those that will obviously be contested (someone closer than 5 feet).

I don't think anyone thinks Lin should be taking 3's when someone is less than 5 feet away. The real question is how often he should take shots that will be 50/50 contested, especially early in the clock. Right now he's avoiding most of those shots. If his shot has truly improved to the 40% level, then it makes sense to take more of those shots earlier in the clock.

Let's remember that a contested shot typically drops shooting averages by about 15%. So the question is how reliable with that shot be when a person has a decent chance of contesting. How much of that is McHale's instructions and how much is a value judgement in his mind based upon the time on the clock is anyone's guess.

 

And you ignore him running into the crowded paint just to turn the ball over countless times. Lin is gimped because he has no jumpshot, his offense is predictable just like hardens

 

Lin has no jump shot?

You sure?

I thought he avoided taking jumpers last game because his elbow was sore, not because he had no jumpshot.





Oh wait.... I forgot Tinman labeled him Eremy Lin because he had no J. I stand corrected. Carry on.

 

Yeah, a tight leash from Lin himself.