Lin and Kidd fundamentally contrasting players. One is a scorer who is learning to become a better passer and other other is a pure passer who scores as a last resort. Lin is a better scorer, but his passing ability, peripheral vision, and floor generalship is rudimentary compared to "a young" Jason Kidd. This isn't a knock on Lin, Kidd is an all-time great pertaining to these attributes.
Your comparison is just dumb. Lin is comparable to Chandler Parsons. Are you implying that Jason Kidd is comparable to Larry Bird??????? It's a good idea to think before you press the 'submit' button next time.
You are a moron, first, it should be "comparing Chandler to a young Larry Bird"? second, a young Larry Bird was GREAT while a young Jason Kidd was not.
He didn't compare Kidd to Bird. He compared the discrepancy of talent between the two sets of players.
That's exactly my point. He's saying that the discrepancy of talent between Lin and Kidd is comparable to the discrepancy of talent between Parson and Larry Bird. Since Lin and Parson are comparable, Kidd and Bird have to be comparable too in order to make his comparison valid. So he is basically implying that Kidd and Bird are comparable. If it is not dumb, what do you want to call it?
But there's a glaring problem using career average as well though since it doesn't account at all for improvement. It shows Lowry with 34% and on the tail end of all starting pgs ranked 19th, but he's improved so much that he's actually one of the better 3p shooting PGs in the league right now. I know I said 33 is good enough, but I take it back after looking at your stats and some others. 33 would be below mean, mode, whatever statistical measure of the career average and the seasonal average of all starting pgs in the league. It's pretty low expectations to say we hope he improves to doing less than what a majority of point guards do. 33 isn't even an improvement really. 35+ is what I'm hoping he gets to. 33 is fine though and I wouldn't complain since a few percentage points here and there can just be attributed to variance, but it's not really good enough where I'd be satisfied.
great link--it provides objective evidence for what I believe has been apparent for some time now--he's not just a good defender--he's a GREAT defender. seriously. the myth that he's bad on D is one perpetuated by SAS and Rob Parker et al. it's crap. He was just decent in New York, now he is very good. He is a junior Jason Kidd.
Don't look now but he's currently shooting better than D-Will, Westbrook, Felton, Lillard, Lowry, Rubio, Jamal Crawford, Nelson, Conley for the season and as far as FG% and tied with Curry at 43.8%. He's just needs to keep improving his 3 PT shot which most of those other guards have him beat at.
That's not a problem if you are looking at the big picture rather than focusing on particular players. Like I said, for every Kyle Lowry, there is a Jameer Nelson. In the end, they all balance out. As I've pointed out earlier, the problem with using figures from a single season for statistical analysis is that some players simply did not attempt enough 3's during the season. The Tony Parker illustration I gave is only 1 of several examples. Others like John wall 13 3pta, Ricky Rubio 23 3pta, Rajon Rondo 50 3pta, etc. And some players like Derick Rose did not even play the entire season. The sample sizes for such players are too small or simply not available for statistical comparison. The variance would simlpy be too big. For the same player, different people will have different expectations. You may have your own expectation of Lin which is fine. In general, however, based on the stats of the 30 starting pgs' 3pt%, the mean is 0.346. For ease of reference, let's round it up to 0.35. Using a tighter variance of say 0.02 for seasonal 3pt% fluctuations, 33% to 37% 3pt shooting efficiency should be pretty decent among the starting pgs. Let's not forget, Jamal Crawford is a career 0.349 3pt shooter and is averaging 0.370 this season. His seasonal 3pt% average range from 0.320 to 0.382. At any point in his career, you certainly won't want to leave a player like him open at the 3pt arc, would you?
Let's not go crazy comparing Jeremy to a young Jason Kidd. Maybe Jeremy will get there, but JKidd is a first ballot hall of famer and dominated the league from basically day 1 he joined. He turned it over a lot, didn't shoot great, but was elite at everything else. It wasn't until later in his career he had trouble finishing at the rim. Lin is having trouble finishing right now. That being said, Jeremy Lin is awesome.
But you're adjusting for variance. So when you say him being a 33% shooter is fine, you're talking about 35%. So you're interpreting 33-37 as like a fluctuation range for a 35 shooter. When I say 33, I means him being a 33% shooter, 34 means he's a 34 shooter, etc. Meaning 31-35, 32-36 with variance adjusted. I'm saying he should improve to being a 35%+ shooter. Like how Lowry has improved from being a sub 35 shooter to a 35+ shooter. That's the reason I didn't want to use career average, even though single season averages don't give as accurate a result since there are less shots, it does give some idea of improvement which is the topic of discussion with Lin. So essentially it seems like we're both expecting Lin to be a 35+ shooter.
