Jeremy Lin and Beverley, who fits better with the team and James Harden

Great work OP. Amazing facts and analysis.

 

I don't think we should be questioning Lin's heart. That's just stupid. Sort of reminds me of the "meek" stereotype that gets attributed to certain people regardless of how they actually act.

 

awesome research. props for the work.

needless to say this is hard to say since Dwight is now a huge factor.

 

great work by the OP.

another factor to Harden's decreased effectiveness with Bev may just be conditioning. He might be fresher at the beginning of games. Maybe a little worn down by the time Bev comes in - and resorts to iso-ish habits. who knows.

It does make sense though that Harden would be more efficient offensively with a better playmaker on the court.

I was wondering if anyone has any stats on the team with Harden off the court. I would like to see how effective the second unit is with Bev on/off and Lin on/off. One of the main arguments for benching Lin is that he would elevate the second unit.

 

I'd like to see this too. This thread is premised on the assumption that people wanted Jeremy coming off the bench b/c Beverley is an overall better fit with Harden -- when really, the most prevalent argument was that the 2nd unit could benefit from Jeremy's play-making and passing ability (which Bev lacks, but Harden brings to the starting unit).

That make sense to me in theory, but I'm not sure there's sufficient sample size to bear it out statistically. My recollection could be off, but I don't think there have been a lot of instances outside of this preseason where Jeremy ran with the 2nd unit without Harden.

The answer could very well be that Harden benefits from Jeremy's play-making in the starting unit, while the 2nd unit benefits from it as well. The two aren't mutually exclusive. In that case, I guess the question is which scenario is more impactful -- which is what I think McHale is trying to figure out now.

All of that said, I'm another vote for "indifferent" at the moment. I think we've looked great with both guys starting and am cool with whatever gets us more wins.

 

Good work and effort on the analysis, but seems extremely out of context if you completely ignore the 3 other guys on the court.

 

In the short run, if Harden's offense is on fire, playing with Beverley can be beneficial,

It is suggesting the perimeter O is all about Harden and D is about PB. It likes a boost to their O and D.

But the extra benefits can easily diminish.
It makes the plays more predictable and the opponents can figure out how to respond

Harden will get tired. His FG% falls and TOs rise.
Beverley's aggressive D is also the same case.

The whole picture will be more clear with larger sample size in the coming season.

 

Good analysis.

 

We can keep debating who is better playing with Hardin and the starters but Lin is more effective than Beverly playing with the 2nd unit, by far!

 

This is a great analysis.

Statistics and numbers should be simple and clear. One cannot eliminate all the possible confounding biases and selections biases while maximising the internal validity of this study without more data. Which I'm sure the stat-heads at Rockets HQ have done, and which is why Lin is likely to start with Harden.

Beverly with his ever improving play-making will be the greatest bench PG.

 

I am a fan of Lin and as ccjj says above, Lin can run the 2nd unit better
than Beverley.

However, I think DH will benefit more with Lin on the floor.

So am not sure what to think.

From Lin's p.o.v., would one rather be a seargent in unit 1 or
a general in unit 2?

 

What exactly is the accepted sample size to know Lin runs the second unit better than Beverly? Im not saying its wrong, im just trying to get a gauge on what exactly is an acceptable sample size to say a player is good or bad at something.

 

Thanks TTNN. Some good work, certainly more in depth than a lot of others out there. I just wish some of these people can accept that using the argument that Lin runs the second team better, therefore put him on the bench, is really invalid, especially when staggering minutes gives the same effect AND you don't have a pissed off starter who is unlikely to re-sign with you when contract is up.

 

Great research.
I'm a Lin fan too. Reading too many articles about overrated, overpaid for Lin. After 2012-13 season. I try to analyse Lin's performance by creating a tool. I will share it(easier, shallow tool.) to you later.

 

First of all, not sure why the need to break things down when you can use Points-per-possession to kind of make things a lot simpler. Probably would've saved you a ton of time and make it easier to read.

Also, isn't a large part of the Beverley over Lin argument defense? Can you make the same chart with defense? I know from simple on court/off court the Rockets were much better on defense with Beverley, but we all know that can be very deceptive. I would very much like to see the break down on defense between Lin and Beverley. That would be awesome!

 

at the end of the day point differential causes wins

Beverly On Court: +6
Beverly Off Court: +1.9
Lin On Court: +1.8
Lin Off Court: +4.1

and this is because offensively and defensively, the other 4 guys on the court are more aggressive and play at a faster pace when Beverly's on the court

 

Someone should let Gregg Popovich know that, all these years being the best coach in the nba, them Lin fans could have pointed out the error of his ways.

 

If we take last season, we'd be looking at the results of Asik on/off more than Lin or Beverley though, the point guards effect on defense is quite minor compared is elite defensive center vs non existent defensive backup (it wouldn't surprise me if it was twice the gap of Rondo vs Nash on defense)