Jeremy Lin and Beverley, who fits better with the team and James Harden

Enough already, both players are hella sic and they are homies and they play well together. BTW nothing is worse than JOF's (jimmer)

 

How does this argue against Beverley starting?

1) The stats show that the team does better when he's on the court with Harden.

2) You only look at FG% to check for efficiency, which I think just about anyone on Clutchfans would argue is not an accurate measure for scoring efficiency. So what is the difference in TS%? His FTA nearly doubling playing with Bev is a staggering stat you can't just ignore when calculating efficiency. Free throws is what makes Harden efficient in the first place...

 

and nop i dont agree with you. although it may not show 100% of the fact, 70% is enough. the whole team part may not accurate, but the part concentrate on on/off with JH, that's quite enough to tell the thing and bust some bias. I dont know why one would instantly reject this piece of work, certainly it's not perfect, but there is something in it, and good thing.

on the other hand, business wise you dont undervalue a 8m contract when you wanna unload it this year or comming year, not to mention to pull it down to the level to compare to a 800k contract. unless they wanna overvalue the latter one.

 

As has been seen, and will be seen, JLin is more valuable to Dwight's offense with his penetration and PnR and creative passes than Bev and his simple lobs into the post. Also when JLin is in there, Harden doesn't have to do everything.

 

I think your 2nd one exactly prove what the OP says: with Bev JH must work extremely hard because much less easy shot for him, he must sacrifice his body to get to the line much more. for the TS% doubt, we gotta wait for another guy has same enthusiasm like OP to spend his personal time to put up the work, or we may ask OP, politely, for further in depth analysis base on TS%.

 

Very in-depth and eye opening analysis, impressive! Thanks.

 

Actually, you're only looking at part of the offensive side. Its true that our shooting numbers were better with Jeremy on the floor rather than Patrick. But offensive efficiency also depends on free throws, offensive boards, and turnovers. When you put it all together, we were actually more efficient on offense with Beverley on the floor and no Lin on the floor, then we were with Lin but no Beverley. Of course, as others have pointed out, the analysis isn't fully complete without factoring who each player was playing with, and against whom.

Code:

[B]                   min     eFG%    OREB%    TOV%     FTM/FGA   Eff[/B]
Lin, no Beverley   2572    0.529   0.246    0.151    0.223    109.0
Beverley, no Lin   763     0.505   0.311    0.134    0.246    112.2

My source is nbawowy.com, by the way, though perhaps NBA.com provides the same info.

 

Impressed! However, I'm a little bit apprehensive on the "per 36 minutes" computation because some players don't perform exactly the same when given more minutes. They may perform better or for most, worse.

 

I would say the biggest concern pair Harden with Beverley is that Harden may be worn down sooner, he has to work extra harder in ISO mode.

 

It's a combination of both. Beverley may be less of an offensive threat, but so are the other 3 bench guys Harden is playing with. Like I said, it's not all on Beverley.

This doesn't prove that Harden/Bev are a lesser fit, because if you start them alongside Parsons and Howard, I'd bet you that James' FG% goes up.

 

We have Dwight now though. This isn't last year. We're working on the post feeds for a reason. It's going to be a key part of our playbook this season, whereas it was almost non-existent last year. Harden will get breaks.

It just makes sense to start Beverley IMO. The stats that OP provided even has the team doing better with Bev on the floor...and that was last year. I see even more arguments to put Bev in the starting lineup THIS year.

 

I looked it up

With Lin it's 59.3% TS on 2196 minutes of data.
With Bev it's 54.8% TS on 456 minutes of data.
Without either it's 63.5% TS on 489 minutes of data.

Goodbye Lin and Bev. Welcome back Toney Douglas.

 

I never said Harden/Bev are a better fit. When people brought that up with bad evidence, I've argued against it as well. There is actually a SSAC study that points to an 'attacking pg' being the best fit with Harden/Howard, and I've pointed to that many times. However, that is just in theory and haven't been tested out.

I don't think the coaching staff is 100% positive who is the better fit yet either. That's why they are trying things out.

 

With specifically Toney Douglas on the court and the other two off, Harden had 64.5% TS with 48% FG. Same sample size as Bev, 437 minutes.

It probably has more to do with the time in the schedule that the respective PGs played their minutes with Harden, but idk man, I don't remember what good things Toney did but maybe that's the best brand of pg for Harden to play with.