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Jeremy Lin and Beverley, who fits better with the team and James Harden

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by TTNN, Oct 18, 2013.

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flamingdts Member

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WinkFan said: ↑

So are you saying that putting Lin on the bench would make the second unit stronger, therefore reducing the minutes Harden needs to play?
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Pretty much. If the 2nd unit continues to outscore the opponent, I don't think McHale would need to rush to get Harden back in the game.

Of course, this benefit assumes that the 2nd unit is strong enough for that to happen, and even if it isn't I still see other benefits to having Lin act as the 6th man.

#341 flamingdts, Oct 21, 2013

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vlaurelio said: ↑

name a team in the history of the NBA who had their number 1 option come off from the bench?
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But isn't Howard their number 1 option?

#342 cfansnet, Oct 22, 2013
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KlutchQT said: ↑

McHale in Chron article from today: "I have two starting point guards."

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/spo...php?t=5d3cfa530fcba496f0&t=5d3cfa530f006749db
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Lin and Harden? hehehehe

#343 Morlock O, Oct 22, 2013
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cfansnet said: ↑

But isn't Howard their number 1 option?
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yeah D12 is so polished offensively

#344 vlaurelio, Oct 22, 2013
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cfansnet said: ↑

But isn't Howard their number 1 option?
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Interesting. Who would you rather trust with the offense: Harden or Howard?

#345 Pumpedupkicks, Oct 22, 2013
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Thanks for the great work!!

Any chance you could find out Harden's TO numbers when playing with either PG?

Thanks.

#346 TJ VS TR, Oct 22, 2013
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Pumpedupkicks said: ↑

Interesting. Who would you rather trust with the offense: Harden or Howard?
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Dwight Q1-3, Harden Q4

Dwiight's stats (injury season) from Synergy

PnR: 1.29 points per possession 79.6% FG
Cutting: 1.35PPP 77.3% FG
Post: .74PPP 44.5% FG

Pre-injury
Post: .88PPP 49% FG

For comparison Dirk's post-up: 1.02PPP 50% FG

The problem lowering his PPP isn't freethrows, its the 18% turnovers in the post, which I assume is offensive fouls, handles, and getting stripped on the way up. To me that means he really needs smart passers to keep his bad long range iso-post touches down and decide when on the shot clock/where on the floor/against which defender to let him post up. Dwight should be PnR and setting off-ball screens and cutting to the rim all day, until McHale/Dream's lessons set in.

Now look at Harden's numbers

Harden iso: .93PPP 34% FG
Harden PnR: 1PPP 45.7% FG
Harden Spot-up: 1.04PPP 39.8% FG
Harden handoff: 1.12PPP 44.4% FG

Harden is amazing, and getting to the line takes him to the next level, but bigs get easier, higher percentage shots. Its not fair, but that's life. IMO, counting on the refs for those calls in a game 6 on the road is just as risky as leaving Dwight in for Hack-a-Dwight. Are they calling the foul if another star is guarding him, or do they swallow the whistle and leave us with a 34%FG iso?

To me you play the percentages and set up your offense to maximize Dwight, at least for the first 3 quarters. Feeding a big man has many advantages that show up late when its time for Harden to operate.

Feeding the big dogs:
-They set nastier picks, crash the boards harder, more aggressive on D
-They suck multiple defenders and free up everyone else
-They wear down skilled small ball lineups and force teams to play bigs who can barely walk and chew gum.
-Gets opposing bigs in foul trouble, which forces them to play passive

Best of both worlds IMO might be to play both off-ball. As good as Harden is creating from iso, he's even better creating on a catch and go. Harden's (limited) numbers in OKC put him 1st to 3rd in the league in points per possession on handoffs, off screens, and cutting (1.32-1.55PPP 47.6%-71.4%FG). Limit the Howard post and Harden iso. Get both moving in space. Question is whether either would go for it.

#347 DocRock, Oct 22, 2013

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Hey TTNN _ any chance you could do an analysis like you did for last year's numbers for this year as well? I for one would be very interested.

#348 steady, Oct 22, 2013
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Compare with HOU's, Harden in OKC and Lin in NYK have higher efficiency, which is much better than Bev. last season.
Unlike full season starter, all of them are with smaller sample size.

Harden:
2011-12
FG% 49.1% 3PT% 39%
2012-13
FG% 43.8% 3PT% 36.8%

Harden had great production in HOU b/c he had freedom.
Lin didn't.

Bev's efficiency is likely to decline as the sample size get bigger.
Lin's must get better as he is healthier and has more experience.

#349 kastuul, Oct 28, 2013
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if compare their stat. after ASW only (Toney Douglas got trade and Bev. became the 1st unit of bench), the story can be more interesting.

We can exclude the period Lin's Nov struggling of left knee injury and Bev. fitting in.

#350 kastuul, Oct 28, 2013
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CXbby said: ↑

Thanks for the numbers. Unfortunately, it is shallow analysis without context. Which is usually the case when it comes to raw unadjusted +/- numbers and split stats. All the discrepancies can be explained by:

1. Team FG% is lower when Beverley is on the court because Beverley tends to play with the bench. The bench = lesser offensive players = lesser FG%.

2. Harden's efficiency is lower when playing with Beverley because, again, Beverley is usually with the other bench players. Harden carrying 4 other bench players will tend to lower his efficiency: it's not all due to Beverley.

3. Beverley's raw +/- tends to be better because he is playing against the opponents bench players more.

It all comes down to the fact that none of these numbers take into account who are the other 3 teammates your pairing is playing with, nor the other 5 opponents you are playing against.

That's why you cannot draw any conclusions regarding fit, or anything, from these numbers.
Click to expand...

Support your assumptions with data. At this point,your statements are just speculations.

#351 gene18, Oct 28, 2013
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Yao4REAL said: ↑

I think it's a hard decision for the coach to make as who should be the starter. On the one hand, you have Lin who makes thing easier for everyone not name Harden by pushing the ball up and making smart decision passes but risk of being exploited or cherry pick by other great PGs in the NBA. On the hand, you have Beverley who can nullify those great PGs in the NBA by playing tenacious defense. But risk of seeing a drop in offensive coordination and even offensive tempo. Beverley isn't bad at pushing the ball up court and not only does he play defense, he even does the little things like battling the big men inside for rebound and even blocking their shots.

Here's how i see it:
1. If the Rockets want to win it safe (or play it safe), they would want to start Beverley.
2. If they want to win risky, they would want to start Lin. Now risky can be good and bad. You may reap the benefit of having an EVEN BETTER offensive prowess than w/ Beverley and you may not. Lin coming off the bench definitely help out the 2nd unit and w/ Asik, there might not a be a drop off in performance. So because of these factors, i can see the coach leaning toward Beverley starting.
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You state that Beverley can nullify top level guards. No one has presented any data to support this. Synergy has data that shows that Lin is an equal or somewhat better defender than Lin. Hollinger and Morey also stated that Lin has good defensive numbers.The Jrue Holliday steals are an example of how we can be fooled. Beverley looked amazing against Holliday. However, Holliday's performance after that game was horrible. His turn overs were sky high. Indeed, if you read articles about Holliday's mperfomance this preseason they all point out that he has the highes turnovers per game of anyone playing during the preseassion. We need data to anchor us. If we don't have data we are merely engaging in fantasy.

#352 gene18, Oct 28, 2013
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rocketjunkie said: ↑

This is probably a very good argument for last year (although I think it is still close). With Dwight added to the team, I think that the result may be different. Now you're looking for the PG who maximizes both Dwight and Harden together. As others have pointed out (here and elsewhere), since Lin is a better passer he might be the better PG to distribute the ball with the other two players (i.e., a simple dump off to Harden is not always the best answer anymore). I'm not saying that Beverley might not be the right starting PG. I'm just saying that I'd prefer to see some games with Lin starting (since he was the starter all last year) to see if he works better with the new lineup before making a switch (if the numbers start validating Beverley as the starter).
Click to expand...

Lin has a better record passing to Howard during this preseason.

#353 gene18, Oct 28, 2013

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TTNN said: ↑

Okay, now I have a bit more time look at this a bit more globally, as defensive end is much less tracked in public data, I would only use what I could find. Again, data is from nbawowy.com, and thanks Durvasa for introduce this site to me.

Again, I set up my filter with games from Feb1st to April 17th. Try to catch all the games when Beverley is here.

So this time, I pulled data from Beverley or Jeremy on/off court, and let's see how the whole team is doing as well as how the opponent team is doing. So when we look at this together, we will have better idea how the offensive end and defensive end impact the game.

So some number will be shown again as before, and some numbers will have minor differences since there is a filter set here, vs. the original post, no filter was applied.

As we can see, when Jeremy is on the court, Rocket is playing at a slightly higher pace than when Beverley is on the court. When Jeremy is on, the team has slightly higher FG%, eFG%, TS than when Beverley is on the floor, but the team also give a slightly higher FG%, eFG% to our opponent team there too. On the other hand, though Beverley is a bit limited in the offensive side when we look at the impact on the team, he does make it up in the defensive side, as shown that when he is on the floor, the team hold the opponent team in lower % of shooting too.

So, overall looking at PPP, Jeremy on court the team has a bit better PPP, but the opponent team also has better PPP there. So overall, the difference is maybe 1 or 2 points for a full game if they played all 48 min.

I'd consider that's a wash, these two are comparable if we look at the overall production of the team. (However, people does need to take into consideration that Beverley was playing only half the minute and playing against benches, and the production of that was projected assume he would be able to keep the same efficiency and energy if he is given double the play time there.)

Now let's drill down further to look at the shot distribution for both team and opponent.

Here DNKA= dunk attempt; %DNK = % of dunk shot in total shots attempt; DNK% = Dunk fg%; LU = lay up; MID = mid distance shot.

What I see here are following:

1) Rockets take more dunks than our opponent teams, which is funny thinking about Asik's ballet lay up. However, he does dunk most of the times later half of the season, so it is nice to see that in the stats.
2) When Jeremy is on the floor, our team takes more lay ups than when Beverley is on the floor, and we hold our opponents to have less lay ups than us. As LU have close to 60% FG% in general, it is the second best shot behind free throw, thus the more LUA the better.
3) when Jeremy is on the floor, team took a bit more mid range shots and low FG% than when he is off the floor, or when Beverley is on the floor, that part is not ideal.
4) for 3pt shooting, Jeremy on, the team shoot less 3pt, but with higher FG%, and when Beverley is on the floor, the team shoots more 3s, but with lower FG%. And the opponent team was similar, Jeremy on the floor, hold the opponent team with less 3pt shots, but with slightly higher FG%, and Beverley's line up allow a bit more 3pt shots, but with less success rate.
5) Overall the opponent team have lower shooting% when Beverley is on the floor, even FT%. though one can argue that maybe it is due to bench player in the opponent team have worst shooting, but we can not deny sly that's a positive reflection of how Beverley's defense impact the game.
6) I was anticipating to see higher FTR (free throw rate = FTA/FGA) when Beverly is on the floor, since James Harden increased his FTR from 0.5 to 0.97 when he was playing with Beverley. But there is not much change overall in terms of team FTA. So looks like though James Harden is taking more FTs when playing together with Beverley, the whole team FTA did not increase.
7) On the contrary, I did not anticipate that the opponent team had a jump on FTA when Beverley is on the floor. The difference is pretty obvious and significant. As I have shown before, that per 36 min, team personal foul count increased from 15.2 when Jeremy is on the floor to 18 with Beverley on the floor. So the number are consistent in both cases.

From here, we could roughly see the different defensive style the team was playing with Beverley vs. Jeremy.

When Jeremy is on court, team appears to alter their shot by limit good shots (lay ups, 3 pts) and encourage low % shots (MID). But when Beverley is on court, the team just straight limit their FG%.

Area need to improve for Jeremy should be drop down the MID shots, and limit opponent FG%, and for Beverley, he does need to be careful not to send opponent team to the line too easily.

now let's further look some defensive parameters people use when look at stats.

Several things worth to pay attension:

1) when look at Beverley or Jeremy on the floor, turnover rate (TOR) is not that much different. 14.2 with Beverley vs. 14.6 with Jeremy.
2) assist rate is comparable too.
3) Offensive rebound really stands out when Beverley is on the court, which everybody should anticipate that.
4) Defensive rebound is comparable, and Jeremy had a slight edge, thus total rebound are comparable too in both cases.
5) Opponent turn over rate (OTOR) is higher with Beverley on the floor. And take consideration of increase steal rate with Beverley and actually similar opponent none-steal turnover rate in both cases, we could pretty much conclude that the increased opponent turn over rate is due to the higher steal rate.

So, based on these, we could clearly seen the strength of Beverley in defensive end is 1) offensive rebound, 2) steal.

Okay, now since I have look into both end of the data, I could try to do a little summary here.

Both Beverley and Jeremy was able to help the team, however, in different ways.

Jeremy's strength is in the offensive end, on top of his own offensive force, he impact the team through his teammates, by help the teammates with elevated FG%, eFG% using his playmaking skills, and perform as a floor general. He is able to do that with both first team or second team. Defensive end, the style is more impact on shot selection, trying to limit high percentage shots, but not much on opponent's FG%. Jeremy make up the defensive end with elevated offensive side. One thing he might not fit well with first team is that, when he is on the floor, James Harden would have lower USG, and have less FGA, and also goes to the line a bit less. Even though he could help James gain points easier, but it does limited the total points James could earn.

Beverley, on the other hand, his strength is in the defensive end, he did have a drop in the offensive end when playing, his teammates playing together with him see a drop in FG% across the board. However, he made up that by give the ball to James Harden, let him handle the ball, and go to the line much more frequently. And he also make it up defensively by crashing the offensive board, and steals. I do see his get out of James Harden's way type of play style is one big advantage of Beverley.

At the end of the game, do you want to play Jeremy who try to gain points through everyone on the floor or do you want to play Beverley, who give the ball to James Harden and let him do his thing? Apparently, last season our coaches trust James over the whole team. And that carried over to this season, that's how the discussion of who should start started.

Now since these were all based on last season's data, adding DH12, we will need to reconsider all the pros and cons again.

Playing with a defensive anchor like Dwight and Asik, I do think the defensive edge Beverley had will be diminished a little bit. Guard crashing offensive board is a risky move, and most offensive board Beverley got was from 3pt shot, which is long rebound. If he miss that, the team will be in no position to defend the fast break. Currently Beverley was able to do that based on his quickness and high energy, basically he would rush back and defend if he miss the board, which require extra energy. If he got longer play time, would he still be able to do that or not is a big question.

And play together with James Harden and Dwight might challenge his deficiency on his offensive end. Last season, he was able to hide his playmaking skills behind James by pass the ball to James and get out of the way. But now with Dwight on the floor, balancing James and Dwight, balancing post offense vs. perimeter offense, out side in or in side out, all these would be more and more critical to the team, which would be a big challenge to Beverley.

However, that said, I could still understand if the team think James Harden as the main offensive strength, and would like Harden to carry this team, then we will need to play in a style that optimize his performance the most, which would then need to start Beverley, so that Jeremy could be out of the way of James.

Anyway, I hope the team could finalize the starter earlier, so that the team rotation could be stabilized, and cultivate chemistry among team members.
Click to expand...

Great work!!!!

#354 gene18, Oct 28, 2013
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gene18 said: ↑

You state that Beverley can nullify top level guards. No one has presented any data to support this. Synergy has data that shows that Lin is an equal or somewhat better defender than Lin. Hollinger and Morey also stated that Lin has good defensive numbers.The Jrue Holliday steals are an example of how we can be fooled. Beverley looked amazing against Holliday. However, Holliday's performance after that game was horrible. His turn overs were sky high. Indeed, if you read articles about Holliday's mperfomance this preseason they all point out that he has the highes turnovers per game of anyone playing during the preseassion. We need data to anchor us. If we don't have data we are merely engaging in fantasy.
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It's strictly an ideological and ego battle at this point. This debate has no grounding in evidence, regardless of how much of it you can marshall.

Some idiot named "spiegel" in another thread for example, claimed that lillard "schooled" lin last season. It turns out that lin and lillard had identical scoring averages per 36, and that lin had a significant edge in assists per 36.

The evidence has no bearing on people's positions.

#355 imarealballer, Oct 28, 2013
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Harden for MVP?

Start Beverley, let Harden shoot as much as he wants.
Production > Efficiency

Rockets for the Champion?

Start Lin
Efficiency > Production.

#356 kastuul, Oct 28, 2013
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kastuul said: ↑

Harden for MVP?

Start Beverley, let Harden shoot as much as he wants.
Production > Efficiency

Rockets for the Champion?

Start Lin
Efficiency > Production.
Click to expand...

It reminds me how the Bulls overplay Rose or the Knicks use Melo.

Everyone plays D except Rose/Melo.

#357 kastuul, Oct 28, 2013
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kastuul said: ↑

It reminds me how the Bulls overplay Rose or the Knicks use Melo.

Everyone plays D except Rose/Melo.
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Both of those clowns play in the EC, the dleague of the nba. The rockets would've been a 2 or 3 seed if they had played in the EC last season, but barely cracked the playoffs in the west.

#358 imarealballer, Oct 28, 2013

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gene18 said: ↑

You state that Beverley can nullify top level guards. No one has presented any data to support this. Synergy has data that shows that Lin is an equal or somewhat better defender than Lin. Hollinger and Morey also stated that Lin has good defensive numbers.The Jrue Holliday steals are an example of how we can be fooled. Beverley looked amazing against Holliday. However, Holliday's performance after that game was horrible. His turn overs were sky high. Indeed, if you read articles about Holliday's mperfomance this preseason they all point out that he has the highes turnovers per game of anyone playing during the preseassion. We need data to anchor us. If we don't have data we are merely engaging in fantasy.
Click to expand...

Hey, Beverley was playing championship-level basketball in Россия though, remember?

(Actual argument used by the ABL crowd)

#359 zdrav, Oct 28, 2013
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imarealballer said: ↑

Both of those clowns play in the EC, the dleague of the nba. The rockets would've been a 2 or 3 seed if they had played in the EC last season, but barely cracked the playoffs in the west.
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Yeah because you really care about the Rockets.

#360 Spiegel, Oct 28, 2013

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