Jeremy Lin and Beverley, who fits better with the team and James Harden

Jeremy "The Toe" Lin

 

Assuming Harden's minutes this season is similar to last year but less intensive (because of the added talent), we could put Harden's minutes at around 36-37 minutes. That's almost an entire quarter worth of minutes where Harden isn't on the court.

Furthermore, with a strengthened 2nd unit, one could argue that Harden would not need to return to the court as quickly. The Clippers had one of the stronger 2nd units of last season (arguably the strongest), and the result was significantly reduced minutes for their starters. Paul and Griffin averaged just 33 minutes a game because of this.

Harden is already one of the best PnR players in the league, so the assumption that only Lin could function effectively with Howard is pretty unjustified.

 

I think it's a hard decision for the coach to make as who should be the starter. On the one hand, you have Lin who makes thing easier for everyone not name Harden by pushing the ball up and making smart decision passes but risk of being exploited or cherry pick by other great PGs in the NBA. On the hand, you have Beverley who can nullify those great PGs in the NBA by playing tenacious defense. But risk of seeing a drop in offensive coordination and even offensive tempo. Beverley isn't bad at pushing the ball up court and not only does he play defense, he even does the little things like battling the big men inside for rebound and even blocking their shots.

Here's how i see it:
1. If the Rockets want to win it safe (or play it safe), they would want to start Beverley.
2. If they want to win risky, they would want to start Lin. Now risky can be good and bad. You may reap the benefit of having an EVEN BETTER offensive prowess than w/ Beverley and you may not. Lin coming off the bench definitely help out the 2nd unit and w/ Asik, there might not a be a drop off in performance. So because of these factors, i can see the coach leaning toward Beverley starting.

 

This is my first post, I'm usually in read-only mode and will probably go back to it after this post. I followed Lin from NYC, I know his ups and downs. So, I'm into seeing the development of Lin. I think he is a potential star player and should play against the best on the court. I watched Lin elevate others play and his infectious energy and ability to be very clutch in the 4th quarter. I have nothing against Beverly, I love his energy, intensity, hustle, etc. but I think Lin's court vision combined with the ability to raise the game of others around him has to be developed to see if he will become a star player with a few elite qualities. I don't think he's an average point guard when he reaches where he can get to and I think that posters seeing him with the 2nd unit are for the team, which is good, but aren't thinking that maybe you have a complementary star to your superstars but a good point guard with specific strangths. I think he is more than that. Much more. I think Lin is that complementary star potentially, and if given confidence by the coaching staff, that'll help the whole team in the long-run even if there are some growing pains that happen along the way.

 

from Feb1st to April 17th, what are Hardens assists per game and turn overs per game with PBev On vs JLin On?

also, for the same time period, what is team +/- points differential with PBev On vs JLin On?

 

Great analyses

Great work on the data analyses!

 

I don't think any of those number indicated anything remotely what you just said. Nor do I think that falls in line with the eye test. If Bev is able to nullify Top Rank PGs than this would be a non discussion and he would flat out start over Lin.

 

I think Harden is going to want to play a lot of minutes regardless of talent & I think McHale is going to play him a lot of minutes despite added talent. And realistically do we have that much added talent in terms of playmaking in the back court? We still only have Lin & Harden who are effective and efficient at creating shots for themselves and others. Including Parsons who creates for others reasonably well we have 2.5, the same as last year. Why not just start Lin & sit him first and then put him back in at the beginning of the 2nd half by himself without Harden?

The reason why CP3 & Blake played less minutes also had a lot to do with health issues (a surgically repaired knee) something that Harden hasn't dealt with. I never said only Lin could function effectively with Howard. And yes Harden is one of the best PNR player but I don't want Harden having to do everything on this team, play defense, play make & score. I want him to score and play defense first & foremost and play make second.

 

Look at the Sheridan article. One of the passages is:

"During the 2012-13 regular season, Lin matched a 20.6 usage rate—the number of possessions a player uses per 40 minutes—with a 28.4 assist ratio—the percentage of a player’s possessions that ended with an assist. By comparison, James Harden posted a usage rate of 27.2 with an assist ratio of 18.7."

This is consistent with the point many have raised. Both Harden and Lin are both deadly PNR players, but Harden leans more to the roller scoring or kicking to the 3 pt threat, while Lin is better scoring or assisting the big man roller. Dwight would probably had more fun with Lin (who was very effective with Tyson Chandler).

 

McHale in Chron article from today: "I have two starting point guards."

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/spo...php?t=5d3cfa530fcba496f0&t=5d3cfa530f006749db

 

Hmm. I think McHale maybe PR spinning.

 

Assuming the minutes don't change, Harden would still be playing 38 minutes a game. That is still 10 minutes of game time without our best scorer on the floor, so I could realistically see Lin having a decent amount of time controlling the unit.

Also, Griffin played 80 games last season. He wasn't struggling with health issues. The limited minutes they played is more to do with their bench.

Which means that if the Rockets have a strong bench, Harden is likely to play less minutes (I don't see why McHale would keep playing Harden if the Rockets have the game in the bag).

 

That's how I feel about it. Both are good at different things. One of them will play more depending on the teams they are playing because their strengths will be maximized depending on the match-up.

 

What is it that makes you think we will have a strong second unit?

 

Very interesting. Let's see how it goes. It will at least make it hell for opposing teams to have to scout the team. Both the PGs seem like they can handle it.

 

I never said the Rockets have a strong bench.

I just think that strengthening the 2nd unit would in turn reduce the need to put Harden back on the court, which in turn allows Lin to continue being the primary playmaker on the court.

Better utilization of skills more rest for Harden and Howard, and more Linsanity for Lin.

 

PB is a good ball pressure defender. Playing from bench he can use his aggressiveness and ball pressure defence well. Since he is not playing starter's minutes, he can gamble a bit on the defense to get some steals. He many not be able to play this mode as a starter. He needs to be a playmaker but he does not have great stat on assist. He has one assist in 2 games in the playoff, and in his last game playing without Jeremy, he had zero assist in about 26 minutes and that is not what you expect from a starting point guard.

 

I sort of did:

 

So are you saying that putting Lin on the bench would make the second unit stronger, therefore reducing the minutes Harden needs to play?