Jeremy Lin and Beverley, who fits better with the team and James Harden

Okay, now I have a bit more time look at this a bit more globally, as defensive end is much less tracked in public data, I would only use what I could find. Again, data is from nbawowy.com, and thanks Durvasa for introduce this site to me.

Again, I set up my filter with games from Feb1st to April 17th. Try to catch all the games when Beverley is here.

So this time, I pulled data from Beverley or Jeremy on/off court, and let's see how the whole team is doing as well as how the opponent team is doing. So when we look at this together, we will have better idea how the offensive end and defensive end impact the game.



So some number will be shown again as before, and some numbers will have minor differences since there is a filter set here, vs. the original post, no filter was applied.

As we can see, when Jeremy is on the court, Rocket is playing at a slightly higher pace than when Beverley is on the court. When Jeremy is on, the team has slightly higher FG%, eFG%, TS than when Beverley is on the floor, but the team also give a slightly higher FG%, eFG% to our opponent team there too. On the other hand, though Beverley is a bit limited in the offensive side when we look at the impact on the team, he does make it up in the defensive side, as shown that when he is on the floor, the team hold the opponent team in lower % of shooting too.

So, overall looking at PPP, Jeremy on court the team has a bit better PPP, but the opponent team also has better PPP there. So overall, the difference is maybe 1 or 2 points for a full game if they played all 48 min.

I'd consider that's a wash, these two are comparable if we look at the overall production of the team. (However, people does need to take into consideration that Beverley was playing only half the minute and playing against benches, and the production of that was projected assume he would be able to keep the same efficiency and energy if he is given double the play time there.)

Now let's drill down further to look at the shot distribution for both team and opponent.



Here DNKA= dunk attempt; %DNK = % of dunk shot in total shots attempt; DNK% = Dunk fg%; LU = lay up; MID = mid distance shot.

What I see here are following:

1) Rockets take more dunks than our opponent teams, which is funny thinking about Asik's ballet lay up. However, he does dunk most of the times later half of the season, so it is nice to see that in the stats.
2) When Jeremy is on the floor, our team takes more lay ups than when Beverley is on the floor, and we hold our opponents to have less lay ups than us. As LU have close to 60% FG% in general, it is the second best shot behind free throw, thus the more LUA the better.
3) when Jeremy is on the floor, team took a bit more mid range shots and low FG% than when he is off the floor, or when Beverley is on the floor, that part is not ideal.
4) for 3pt shooting, Jeremy on, the team shoot less 3pt, but with higher FG%, and when Beverley is on the floor, the team shoots more 3s, but with lower FG%. And the opponent team was similar, Jeremy on the floor, hold the opponent team with less 3pt shots, but with slightly higher FG%, and Beverley's line up allow a bit more 3pt shots, but with less success rate.
5) Overall the opponent team have lower shooting% when Beverley is on the floor, even FT%. though one can argue that maybe it is due to bench player in the opponent team have worst shooting, but we can not deny sly that's a positive reflection of how Beverley's defense impact the game.
6) I was anticipating to see higher FTR (free throw rate = FTA/FGA) when Beverly is on the floor, since James Harden increased his FTR from 0.5 to 0.97 when he was playing with Beverley. But there is not much change overall in terms of team FTA. So looks like though James Harden is taking more FTs when playing together with Beverley, the whole team FTA did not increase.
7) On the contrary, I did not anticipate that the opponent team had a jump on FTA when Beverley is on the floor. The difference is pretty obvious and significant. As I have shown before, that per 36 min, team personal foul count increased from 15.2 when Jeremy is on the floor to 18 with Beverley on the floor. So the number are consistent in both cases.

From here, we could roughly see the different defensive style the team was playing with Beverley vs. Jeremy.

When Jeremy is on court, team appears to alter their shot by limit good shots (lay ups, 3 pts) and encourage low % shots (MID). But when Beverley is on court, the team just straight limit their FG%.

Area need to improve for Jeremy should be drop down the MID shots, and limit opponent FG%, and for Beverley, he does need to be careful not to send opponent team to the line too easily.

now let's further look some defensive parameters people use when look at stats.



Several things worth to pay attension:

1) when look at Beverley or Jeremy on the floor, turnover rate (TOR) is not that much different. 14.2 with Beverley vs. 14.6 with Jeremy.
2) assist rate is comparable too.
3) Offensive rebound really stands out when Beverley is on the court, which everybody should anticipate that.
4) Defensive rebound is comparable, and Jeremy had a slight edge, thus total rebound are comparable too in both cases.
5) Opponent turn over rate (OTOR) is higher with Beverley on the floor. And take consideration of increase steal rate with Beverley and actually similar opponent none-steal turnover rate in both cases, we could pretty much conclude that the increased opponent turn over rate is due to the higher steal rate.

So, based on these, we could clearly seen the strength of Beverley in defensive end is 1) offensive rebound, 2) steal.

Okay, now since I have look into both end of the data, I could try to do a little summary here.

Both Beverley and Jeremy was able to help the team, however, in different ways.

Jeremy's strength is in the offensive end, on top of his own offensive force, he impact the team through his teammates, by help the teammates with elevated FG%, eFG% using his playmaking skills, and perform as a floor general. He is able to do that with both first team or second team. Defensive end, the style is more impact on shot selection, trying to limit high percentage shots, but not much on opponent's FG%. Jeremy make up the defensive end with elevated offensive side. One thing he might not fit well with first team is that, when he is on the floor, James Harden would have lower USG, and have less FGA, and also goes to the line a bit less. Even though he could help James gain points easier, but it does limited the total points James could earn.

Beverley, on the other hand, his strength is in the defensive end, he did have a drop in the offensive end when playing, his teammates playing together with him see a drop in FG% across the board. However, he made up that by give the ball to James Harden, let him handle the ball, and go to the line much more frequently. And he also make it up defensively by crashing the offensive board, and steals. I do see his get out of James Harden's way type of play style is one big advantage of Beverley.

At the end of the game, do you want to play Jeremy who try to gain points through everyone on the floor or do you want to play Beverley, who give the ball to James Harden and let him do his thing? Apparently, last season our coaches trust James over the whole team. And that carried over to this season, that's how the discussion of who should start started.

Now since these were all based on last season's data, adding DH12, we will need to reconsider all the pros and cons again.

Playing with a defensive anchor like Dwight and Asik, I do think the defensive edge Beverley had will be diminished a little bit. Guard crashing offensive board is a risky move, and most offensive board Beverley got was from 3pt shot, which is long rebound. If he miss that, the team will be in no position to defend the fast break. Currently Beverley was able to do that based on his quickness and high energy, basically he would rush back and defend if he miss the board, which require extra energy. If he got longer play time, would he still be able to do that or not is a big question.

And play together with James Harden and Dwight might challenge his deficiency on his offensive end. Last season, he was able to hide his playmaking skills behind James by pass the ball to James and get out of the way. But now with Dwight on the floor, balancing James and Dwight, balancing post offense vs. perimeter offense, out side in or in side out, all these would be more and more critical to the team, which would be a big challenge to Beverley.

However, that said, I could still understand if the team think James Harden as the main offensive strength, and would like Harden to carry this team, then we will need to play in a style that optimize his performance the most, which would then need to start Beverley, so that Jeremy could be out of the way of James.

Anyway, I hope the team could finalize the starter earlier, so that the team rotation could be stabilized, and cultivate chemistry among team members.